re: Tornado! Large PDS Watch Issued for Portions of LA & MS

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That skew-t brings up nightmares of statistics in meteorology

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Ha....I used to hate them. I'm doing better with them these days.

And they expanded things a bit with the latest update.

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There will be a chance for some severe for us on Wednesday

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is "us" the BR area or CENLA/NLA?

@NWSShreveport

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It is strongly encouraged to understand your threat category based on your location for storms forecasted Tuesday afternoon. A reminder, just because your threat level may be lower than another does not mean you should let your guard down. Be weather ready for any situation.

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The trend with the CAMs really does seem to be favoring central Louisiana into to MS. That is problematic because the parameters down there are stout. In all likelihood the instability will hit its ceiling in that area. There won't be a lack of moisture and shear will be plentiful.

Don't sleep on this tomorrow if you're in the Alex, Monroe, Vicksburg and areas NE of there, especially. Delta, you could very well see some legit action. Modeled soundings pretty much on top of you have been impressive.

SPC has shifted the moderate risk area a bit further south, and expanded the enhanced risk slightly further east.



Tornado Probabilities (probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point):

I knew they wouldn't let Alabama off the hook.