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Started By
Message
re: Tornado! Cards vs Cubs
Posted on 5/7/15 at 2:10 am to TigersHuskers
Posted on 5/7/15 at 2:10 am to TigersHuskers
This is the CIPS Analog Threat Guidance for Saturday. What it does is, it takes the GFS model, and compares what it shows to historical data, and takes the top 15 similar days in history to what it predicts saturday will be like, then it combines all tornado, wind, and hail reports from those 15 days into one map.
bonus: this is what it shows for Friday:
bonus: this is what it shows for Friday:
This post was edited on 5/7/15 at 2:12 am
2
Posted on 5/7/15 at 2:58 am to GEAUXmedic
And there it is, the SPC has released their Day 3 (Saturday) severe weather outlook and included a moderate risk (which is relatively high)
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2015
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS...
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK AREA FROM
NORTH TX TO KANSAS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE ENH RISK AREA FROM
TX RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO WRN MO AND WEST TO A SMALL PART OF ERN CO...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX TO THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...KANSAS...AND TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THESE
AREAS.
...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION
ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A POTENT AND
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES AND
SPREADS HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT AND STRONG SHEAR ACROSS A WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE INGREDIENTS SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO
SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN UNKNOWN DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AND STORM EVOLUTION...GENERAL PATTERN RECOGNITION
AND REMARKABLE AGREEMENT IN LATEST GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS/UPPER TROUGH
AND JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS...AND CLIMATOLOGY...ALL
SUPPORT A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF NUMEROUS INTENSE
STORMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND
A FEW STRONG/LONGER-LIVED TORNADOES IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
THIS SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD AMIDST A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR WHERE SFC
DEW POINTS AROUND 70F SHOULD RESIDE AHEAD OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE FROM SWRN KS SWD INTO W
TX. 50-60 KTS OF SWLY 500 MB FLOW WILL PIVOT AROUND MID/UPPER LOW
AND ACROSS OK/KS AS A SFC LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE STRONG SWLY 500MB FLOW
WILL RESULT IN HIGH SRH SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL STRONG TORNADOES AS
WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL. INITIAL DISCRETE CONVECTION SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SEVERE
WIND...HAIL...AND FLOODING THREATS CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT EAST
ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTH INTO TX.
..CARBIN.. 05/07/2015
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2015
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS...
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK AREA FROM
NORTH TX TO KANSAS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE ENH RISK AREA FROM
TX RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO WRN MO AND WEST TO A SMALL PART OF ERN CO...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX TO THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...KANSAS...AND TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THESE
AREAS.
...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION
ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A POTENT AND
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES AND
SPREADS HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT AND STRONG SHEAR ACROSS A WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE INGREDIENTS SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO
SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN UNKNOWN DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AND STORM EVOLUTION...GENERAL PATTERN RECOGNITION
AND REMARKABLE AGREEMENT IN LATEST GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS/UPPER TROUGH
AND JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS...AND CLIMATOLOGY...ALL
SUPPORT A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF NUMEROUS INTENSE
STORMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND
A FEW STRONG/LONGER-LIVED TORNADOES IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
THIS SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD AMIDST A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR WHERE SFC
DEW POINTS AROUND 70F SHOULD RESIDE AHEAD OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE FROM SWRN KS SWD INTO W
TX. 50-60 KTS OF SWLY 500 MB FLOW WILL PIVOT AROUND MID/UPPER LOW
AND ACROSS OK/KS AS A SFC LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE STRONG SWLY 500MB FLOW
WILL RESULT IN HIGH SRH SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL STRONG TORNADOES AS
WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL. INITIAL DISCRETE CONVECTION SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SEVERE
WIND...HAIL...AND FLOODING THREATS CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT EAST
ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTH INTO TX.
..CARBIN.. 05/07/2015
This post was edited on 5/7/15 at 5:03 am
Posted on 5/7/15 at 4:04 am to GEAUXmedic
Man,
Just seeing some of the damage on the news. Pretty devastating night last night.
Just seeing some of the damage on the news. Pretty devastating night last night.
Posted on 5/7/15 at 8:42 am to GEAUXmedic
Hit my house last night:
Posted on 5/7/15 at 9:03 am to GEAUXmedic
Good stuff from the Pilger/Stanton outbreak last year, Geaux. 
Posted on 5/7/15 at 9:04 am to okietiger
Damn. That's a big chunk of ice
Posted on 5/7/15 at 9:42 am to ForeverLSU02
It sounded like someone was on the roof with a jackhammer
Posted on 5/7/15 at 11:55 am to okietiger
Honey, where would you like to take the RV this week?
I think Oklahoma in the middle of May sounds good.
I think Oklahoma in the middle of May sounds good.
Posted on 5/7/15 at 2:07 pm to ptra
saw a picture of the tornado in Kansas from yesterdy looked pretty gnarly
Posted on 5/7/15 at 2:08 pm to ptra
Storms are popping up all over. shouldn't be much longer until the warnings start.
Posted on 5/7/15 at 2:46 pm to jlu03
what the best way/place to follow
Posted on 5/7/15 at 2:55 pm to joemuggs
I'd say follow here and on Twitter. Once the storms start firing there might be live streams online. Check tvnweather.com and later TV stations may have continuous live coverage
Posted on 5/7/15 at 3:02 pm to jlu03
quote:
Storms are popping up all over. shouldn't be much longer until the warnings start.
Overall tornado threat appears to be low at this point but that can change pretty rapidly. Shear is adequate to support super cells but helicity is not overly impressive. However, smaller scale features could support localized areas of higher helicity.
Posted on 5/7/15 at 3:03 pm to okietiger
That hail makes me want to pour myself a nice bourbon. It would be perfect for that.
Posted on 5/7/15 at 3:12 pm to Crusty
Posted on 5/7/15 at 3:17 pm to Chinese Bandit
storms firing up again, we have nice cells off to my south near the Kansas state line.
Posted on 5/7/15 at 3:18 pm to Crusty
hail sucks. fricks up your vehicle big time. If I'm getting my vehicle destroyed its by tornado, not hail, at least my insurance will cover the tornado.
Posted on 5/7/15 at 3:22 pm to rds dc
i guess your comments are why only severe thunderstorm watches are currently up for Texas and Oklahoma.
This post was edited on 5/7/15 at 3:23 pm
Posted on 5/7/15 at 3:34 pm to ptra
Not only is there a moderate risk for saturday, but today they added a moderate risk for Friday as well. Saturday still looks to be the more active day.
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