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Message
re: Overnight Weather Thread - LA, MS, AL
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:43 pm to dukke v
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:43 pm to dukke v
quote:
Do you realize that [from the experts] that it was supposed to start storming by 2 today????
For BR anyway.......
if by "experts" you are referring to your local "Weathermen" im not surprised. Get the best info from the [link=(www.weather.gov)]NWS[/link] and [link=(www.spc.noaa.gov)]SPC[/link]
This post was edited on 4/6/14 at 3:44 pm
0
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:43 pm to dukke v
80% chance of rain still means you have a 20% chance of not getting rain. plus it rained out here in denham a couple of minutes ago. so technically the forecast was correct.
everything I've seen the past two days from noaa has suggested we have to be weary of late afternoon evening and overnight tornados.
go strap down your trailer pj
everything I've seen the past two days from noaa has suggested we have to be weary of late afternoon evening and overnight tornados.
go strap down your trailer pj
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:52 pm to GEAUXmedic
What is the latest for Lafayette, BR, and north shore?
Cliffs?
TIA
Cliffs?
TIA
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:53 pm to gaetti15
quote:
plus it rained out here in denham a couple of minutes ago. so technically the forecast was correct.
Yup I live in Denham too.... Just a sprinkle... Just saying that this WILL NOT be a major event for BR and the areas around it............ It will be real bad north of us though..................
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:53 pm to When in Rome
hunker down and be safe
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:53 pm to gaetti15
also, for our area.. once the warm front (which is moving north) passes north of you, you are now in an area conducive for severe weather. the warm front, is breaking the cap. the cap is what was in place that was preventing the severe weather.
a "cap" is when there is a pocket of warm air, on top of the cold air. with instability, the air gets colder the higher you get, and you need this cold air on top of the warm air. which is why the warm air, or the "Cap" being on top is hindering severe weather.
the warm front pushing through is "breaking the cap" or getting rid of it.
currently the warm front is north of belle chasse, and north of lake charles.. you can tell by the temperature. so when the air in your area suddenly feels warmer than before.. the warm front has moved north of you
a "cap" is when there is a pocket of warm air, on top of the cold air. with instability, the air gets colder the higher you get, and you need this cold air on top of the warm air. which is why the warm air, or the "Cap" being on top is hindering severe weather.
the warm front pushing through is "breaking the cap" or getting rid of it.
currently the warm front is north of belle chasse, and north of lake charles.. you can tell by the temperature. so when the air in your area suddenly feels warmer than before.. the warm front has moved north of you
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:55 pm to When in Rome
quote:
What is the latest for Lafayette, BR, and north shore?
Lafayette is in the tornado watch right now. The air around laffy is unstable.. so there's a chance for supercells/tornadoes. BR and the NS later tonight have a way higher chance of tornadoes and damaging winds, along with hail.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:57 pm to gaetti15
Warm front has lifted north of Lake Charles and there is corresponding theta-E surge, probably the first area to watch for possible trouble.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:57 pm to GEAUXmedic
I just left Lafayette. Back in BR now. It has just been really gloomy, and it was lightly raining all the way to BR. I have people in Lafayette and on the North Shore, which is why I asked about those places. Have to keep them updated and make sure they stay safe!
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:58 pm to When in Rome
what were you doing in Lafayette?
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:59 pm to Walt OReilly
William................. 
Posted on 4/6/14 at 4:02 pm to dukke v
Peeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeej!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted on 4/6/14 at 4:02 pm to When in Rome
For everyone tonight.. some common sense notes that may help..
First, if your specific area doesn't get anything, don't discount the service that the NWS does for you. They can't predict an individual spot, but rather an area.. and if you stop believing what they say you will be sorry that one time your house gets destroyed and you die cause you chose not to believe it. its better to be safe than sorry.
that brings me to this:
also there are knowledgeable people in this thread who post information.
other places to look are twitter..if you search there are a ton of people who are literally in the middle of it.
another weather site I use is www.gulfcoastwx.com there are many people on here who discuss whats going on in depth, and its not a bad place to ask questions.
First, if your specific area doesn't get anything, don't discount the service that the NWS does for you. They can't predict an individual spot, but rather an area.. and if you stop believing what they say you will be sorry that one time your house gets destroyed and you die cause you chose not to believe it. its better to be safe than sorry.
that brings me to this:
also there are knowledgeable people in this thread who post information.
other places to look are twitter..if you search there are a ton of people who are literally in the middle of it.
another weather site I use is www.gulfcoastwx.com there are many people on here who discuss whats going on in depth, and its not a bad place to ask questions.
This post was edited on 4/6/14 at 4:20 pm
Posted on 4/6/14 at 4:06 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
also, for our area.. once the warm front (which is moving north) passes north of you, you are now in an area conducive for severe weather. the warm front, is breaking the cap. the cap is what was in place that was preventing the severe weather.
a "cap" is when there is a pocket of warm air, on top of the cold air. with instability, the air gets colder the higher you get, and you need this cold air on top of the warm air. which is why the warm air, or the "Cap" being on top is hindering severe weather.
the warm front pushing through is "breaking the cap" or getting rid of it.
currently the warm front is north of belle chasse, and north of lake charles.. you can tell by the temperature. so when the air in your area suddenly feels warmer than before.. the warm front has moved north of you
This isn't really what was happening today, what you are describing is a more traditional setup that you would see were you would need surface heating combined with some form of "lift" to break the cap.
Today there was WAA over the warm front resulting in elevated participation (most of which was well north of S. La). This prevented any convection from being surface based. Now that the warm front is lifting out we will see surface based convection, which is typically necessary for tornadoes.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 4:08 pm to rds dc
im trying to explain this while being educational.. its not working well
This post was edited on 4/6/14 at 4:08 pm
Posted on 4/6/14 at 4:11 pm to GEAUXmedic
The wind has really picked up in the past 15 minutes or so. IT's the first signs of life from the so-called threat.
Also, 2 teams of storm chasers are currently located in the Lafayette area. They are broadcasting live.
Also, 2 teams of storm chasers are currently located in the Lafayette area. They are broadcasting live.
This post was edited on 4/6/14 at 4:12 pm
Posted on 4/6/14 at 4:12 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
its not working well
No its not... You are striking FEAR in folks that is NOT needed... IF you live in central and north LA.. YES they should worry...The front is going north of the BR area... I understand that the CURL below the front could cause trouble... I just DO NOT see it with this storm..............
Posted on 4/6/14 at 4:13 pm to dukke v
Peej you have no idea what you are looking at. storms just don't stop moving
I mean the cold front isnt just going to stop moving.
I mean the cold front isnt just going to stop moving.
This post was edited on 4/6/14 at 4:15 pm
Posted on 4/6/14 at 4:17 pm to dukke v
quote:
No its not... You are striking FEAR in folks that is NOT needed... IF you live in central and north LA.. YES they should worry...The front is going north of the BR area... I understand that the CURL below the front could cause trouble... I just DO NOT see it with this storm..............
striking fear? im being real. there is a real threat tonight and if you think looking at a fricking current radar will tell you everything you need to know about what could happen tonight, don't come on here and bitch when your trailer gets hit and catches fire.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 4:17 pm to dukke v
quote:
No its not... You are striking FEAR in folks that is NOT needed... IF you live in central and north LA.. YES they should worry...The front is going north of the BR area... I understand that the CURL below the front could cause trouble... I just DO NOT see it with this storm..............
The warm sector (area south of the warm front) is were the greatest threat will be this evening. That threat most likely won't be realized (a good thing) but the potential is there. 
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