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re: Oil and gas folks please explain the whole oil /gas scarcity thing to me
Posted on 4/7/24 at 5:46 pm to Pandy Fackler
Posted on 4/7/24 at 5:46 pm to Pandy Fackler
quote:
Somebody explain to me why natural gas never took off as a means to power our national automobile consumption?
Distribution network and refueling stations. Unlike EV charging stations, natural gas stations were not going to receive massive subsidies.
This post was edited on 4/7/24 at 5:47 pm
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Posted on 4/7/24 at 6:24 pm to Tempratt
No. Also, oil and gas not coming from decomposing dinosaurs.
Forget the shite they told you. Millions of billions of barrels out there. Just scratching the surface.
Forget the shite they told you. Millions of billions of barrels out there. Just scratching the surface.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 6:35 pm to Meauxjeaux
quote:
Oil is a renewable resource.
This. It’s just that it’s more beneficial that you don’t know that. That way, they can scare you that it’s going to run out.
This post was edited on 4/7/24 at 6:36 pm
Posted on 4/7/24 at 6:41 pm to Tridentds
quote:
oil and gas not coming from decomposing dinosaurs.
Nope. Comes from pressure cooking trees and algae
Posted on 4/7/24 at 7:47 pm to Tempratt
quote:
Hasn’t stuff been dying and rotting for millions of years? So how are we running out of oil and gas? I’m no petroleum engineer but it seems unlikely to run out.
1. The “scarcity” that drives global oil prices isn’t due to “running out,” at least not in the sense of reserves. Global oil production is as high as it’s ever been (or at least almost as high; I’m not 100% sure whether global production has exceeded its pre-COVID peak yet).
The issue is simply keeping up with global demand. Scarcity is created artificially via OPEC production quotas in an effort to keep prices high. The companies who actually operate in a competitive market (e.g. the rest of the world) don’t really keep production capacity “on tap,” so to speak, because they need to recoup their drilling costs. So it takes time for non-OPEC production to respond to price/demand swings.
2. We are probably using oil faster than it can be replenished, but it also probably doesn’t matter. People have been talking about “peak oil” - the time when global production will theoretically peak and then start to fall due to supply constraints - for decades. It hasn’t happened. Drilling & completion technology has continued to improve, giving us access to reserves that were previously non-viable.
It seems likely that peak oil probably will happen eventually, but not for the reasons people historically have predicted. Instead of supply constraints leading to unsustainably high prices, it now seems likely that demand will eventually decline to the point where it’s no longer economically viable to further increase production.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 7:54 pm to Pandy Fackler
quote:
Somebody explain to me why natural gas never took off as a means to power our national automobile consumption?
Largely the same reason as hydrogen - energy density. Natural gas is fantastic if you are pulling it directly out of a pipeline, where storage volume isn’t really a concern. It’s less fantastic if you need to put it in a portable tank to power a vehicle.
LNG has a higher energy density than hydrogen but still lower than gasoline, with the added complication of needing to keep it at -160 degrees C.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 8:24 pm to Tempratt
quote:
how are we running out of oil and gas
We aren't. It's BS to sell people on EV and going green.
This post was edited on 4/7/24 at 8:25 pm
Posted on 4/8/24 at 9:57 am to lostinbr
quote:
decline to the point where it’s no longer economically viable to further increase production.
You only have to look at the history of coal to foresee the future of petroleum. There remains massive coal reserves, but its use declined massively when liquid fuels better met the needs of transportation.
There are also parallels in the extractive industries impact on Earth science. Modern geology was developed to understand coal formation and better exploit resources. Oil geology has similarly contributed greatly to the understanding of Earth history and structure.
Today there is scant demand for coal geologists. Unfortunately, the demand for petroleum geologists was already waning 40 years ago. Even though demand for oil continues to increase, new geological knowledge becomes less necessray. What's happened to the famous in-house research programs of Shell, Exxon, BP, etc.?
Posted on 4/8/24 at 10:03 am to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
How much are you willing to pay for gas? That will determine the number of years we have left.
This.
Posted on 4/8/24 at 10:06 am to bayouboo
quote:
Don’t forget Florida.
Yep, and unfortunately neither the Republican nor the Democrat on the Presidential ballot in November will move to open lease sales to off its coast.
Posted on 4/8/24 at 10:10 am to Tree_Fall
quote:
What's happened to the famous in-house research programs of Shell, Exxon, BP, etc.?
They work for PE.
There are groups you have never heard of doing ridiculously sophisticated analyses.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 1:58 am to bayoudude
quote:
There is some data to suggest that it is made by some unknown process and that the earth is constantly producing. It’s not just Dino juice as once thought. There are wells that were sucked dry years ago that have refilled reservoirs
There is a lot of matter in various stages of becoming oil or natural gas, but it is happening extremely slowly. It is not why those reservoirs “refilled”. That is probably due to gradual seepage through sands and rock.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 2:12 am to Tree_Fall
quote:
The Earth's temperature gets too high and alters the oil... think asphalt... too long in a hot oven.
Oil does not turn into asphalt/heavier hydrocarbons the deeper it goes. It turns to natural gas. Experiences a chemical composition form pressure/temperature breaking down heavier hydrocarbons like octane, C8H18, to smaller hydrocarbons like methane, CH4. Haynesville is an example, 14,000 ft at places and 380 degrees, 12,000 PSI at those depths. Exploration companies go for nat gas sometimes bc their BOEPD is a lot higher than oil wells. A Haynesille well can IP at 25 MMCFD. That equals 4,167 BOEPD. An oil well in West Texas is really good if it IPs at 1,500 BOPD, or an equivalent 1,500 BOEPD. Maybe there's some nat gas associated but hard to sell nat gas out there, there's just so much and far from markets I hear. We were losing money on it, a lot. You get nearly 3x the energy or MMBTUs in a Haynesville well than a Permian well. It's just that nat gas is way cheaper so highly price dependent. Each dime increase or decrease in nat gas is huge.
The Eagle Ford is a perfect example. On its western edge, it's 5,000 ft deep and 100% oil. On its eastern edge, it's 13,000 ft and 100% gas. With a transition zone between.
Article explaining 2nd paragraph. This explains same thing. With higher temperature and longer dwell time, hydrocarbons are usually nat gas the deeper a reservoir gets while shallower formations are usually oil. Not always the case, but generally true.
LINK 1st paragraph. This explains it.
Scoop stack is 5,000 ft and oil. Majority of mom and pop stripper wells that are 500 to 1,500 ft deep are like 2 barrel a day wells. You seem them all over Caddo Lake, which btw is where the 1st ever offshore well was drilled in 1908. They got a little memorial out there for it.
This post was edited on 4/10/24 at 4:19 am
Posted on 4/9/24 at 4:24 am to bayoudude
quote:] certainly. But at what rate?
There is some data to suggest that it is made by some unknown process and that the earth is constantly producing
Posted on 4/9/24 at 6:53 am to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
Cough*California*Cough
In Federal Waters not so much on land.
1/3 of the Gulf of Mexico is off limits and has been for decades thanks to Florida.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 6:57 am to Saunson69
quote:
The Eagle Ford is a perfect example. On its western edge, it's 5,000 ft deep and 100% oil.
56-60 API gravity is actually condensate and only called oil because of 1970's legislation. Small refineries have shutdown then torn down because it is uneconomical to refine without have a condensate splitter unit before the refinery.
The profit centers of a refinery dictate which crudes, or crude oil cocktails, can be used in them without going bankrupt.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 7:02 am to bayoudude
quote:
There is some data to suggest that it is made by some unknown process and that the earth is constantly producing.
In a laboratory. Zero dino juice, but microscopic organisms in salt water. The whole abiotic oil theory is whacko. The advocates of it were crushed when it subsalt oil was discovered. They had point to a field in the Gulf of Mexico which would be partially refilled. What was discovered is that the source was a reserve below the salt layer and a crack between the two.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 7:05 am to Saunson69
quote:
Oil does not turn into asphalt/heavier hydrocarbons the deeper it goes.
Depends on depth when it formed. There is plenty of tight shale oil in Nevada but to drill to 40,000 feet then run laterals to facture is not cost effective. FTR, the trap rock above these shale formations produced some might productive wells back in the day. The crude is around 12 API gravity and high in asphaltenes.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 7:19 am to CitizenK
quote:
In Federal Waters not so much on land
Freeport McMoran had the go ahead to produce three huge untapped reserves just north of Point Conception in the late 2000's. Then Deep Water Horizon happened and the permits were pulled. Last I heard, Hidalgo, Hermosa and Harvest platforms were pulled and Gaviota OGP was mothballed. California was built on O&G. More oil in L.A. than most people realize. California will not allow new production anytime in the forseeable future.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 7:36 am to UtahCajun
quote:
Freeport McMoran had the go ahead to produce three huge untapped reserves just north of Point Conception in the late 2000's. Then Deep Water Horizon happened and the permits were pulled. Last I heard, Hidalgo, Hermosa and Harvest platforms were pulled and Gaviota OGP was mothballed. California was built on O&G. More oil in L.A. than most people realize. California will not allow new production anytime in the forseeable future.
I am well aware of past oil production in CA. I even saw the blueprints for the first "pipeline" from Signal Hill to Shell refinery in Wilmington. Initially oil flowed down ditches but after fires kept being ignited, octagon shaped redwood culvert was use to "pipe" it downhill. In 1990, large ponds with nothing but earth still held oil coming into the refinery, the were covered by a redwood frame and planks then asbestos tarpaper. They lost about 10 barrels per day.
I do know that Venoco bought much of Oxy's lease holdings and had hoped that hydraulic fracturing would really boost production. However, the high silica content shale did not respond enough to hydrofluoric acid fracturing to make it economically viable. This after the owner was a Jerry Brown and Obama major bundler to have political sway.
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