Morgan Stanley: 45% of working women aged 25-44 will be single in 2030

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Progress on gender equality, the male-female wage gap and women's role in the workplace has rightly been a key focus in culture and media throughout 2019, particularly the positive linkage between gender diversity and economics.

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A recent duo of reports from Morgan Stanley Research approaches this theme from two angles. First, how a growing population of prime working-age women in the U.S.—many single and focused on career—will have greater representation in the labor force, help boost wages and create potentially large tailwinds in a number of consumer products categories.

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Combined, the two reports lay out the case that in the coming years, women are positioned to drive the economic conversation from both the inside—as a workforce propelling better company performance—and outside, as consumers powering discretionary spending and GDP.

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While more women have risen to increased levels of power in recent years, the needle has further to move on compensation equality with their male peers. In 1980, women earned 64 cents for every dollar that men made, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics; today, the gap has shrunk to between 77 and 85 cents of every dollar. While difference of 23 cents on the dollar is still considerable, the underlying issues have shifted somewhat, with some factors, like educational inequality improving, and others like family caregiving responsibilities beginning to move in the right direction.

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“In the past, education or lower-paying occupational choices largely drove the pay gap,” says Ellen Zentner, Chief U.S. Economist. “Today, motherhood is by far the largest contributor to the wage gap, since women who become mothers often choose to stop working or work fewer hours."

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In the coming years, another demographic trend could help further close the pay gap in the U.S.: the rising ranks of single working women. Based on Census Bureau historical data and Morgan Stanley forecasts, 45% of prime working age women (ages 25-44) will be single by 2030—the largest share in history—up from 41% in 2018.

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What’s driving this trend? For starters, more women are delaying marriage, choosing to stay single or divorcing in their 50s and 60s. Women are also delaying childbirth or having fewer children than in the past.

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“These shifting lifestyle norms are enabling more women, with or without children, to work full time, which should continue to raise the labor force participation rate among single females,” says Zentner. Rising labor-force participation rates should put upward pressure on women’s wages and help increase overall consumer spending.

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As it stands, women already control a large share of the U.S. consumer wallet. They contribute an estimated $7 trillion to the U.S. gross domestic product per year, according to the Center for American Progress, and are the principal shoppers in 72% of households, according to consumer surveys conducted by MRI-Simmons.

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