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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 4/26/24 at 4:50 pm to AU86
Posted on 4/26/24 at 4:50 pm to AU86
How many were with us after 9/11?
It's more about holding Europe together as an entity that doesn't revert to pre-WII wars among neighbors that turns into a shitshow and disrupts everything.
And then nuclear proliferation... some of these countries have parliamentary systems that can swing from one extreme to another... with Neo-Nazis and Neo-Communist parties that have bursts of popularity. Do we want one of those parties to come into power and have control of nukes? Without confidence in the US/NATO providing the nuclear umbrella they're going to want their own, and that's not good.
We didn't really learn our lesson from WWI... but we did from WWII, and we put a system in place that gave us the "Long Peace." I know everybody screams about "Globalism," and it is bad when taken to ridiculous extremes (which we've done a lot)... but the concept was that countries did not need to attack and invade other countries for resources, anymore... they could buy them on the open market.
China... doesn't seem to be concerned with projecting military power beyond reclaiming Taiwan (and that's more of a personal obsession of Xi's at this moment... based in fears of people thinking Taiwan has a legitimate claim to power in China) and seems more set on being a major global economic force as a way to accrue power. Something they seem to be agitated with Putin for screwing with...
Russia... this is where people scratch their heads. In that respect, globalism was enriching Russia (or at least Putin and his Oligarchs) and invading other countries like Ukraine makes no real sense...
But "human beings" can be the most valuable resource, and besides Putin's dreams of reclaiming the Russian/Soviet Empire of old and his paranoia about security and having buffer states under his control, Russia's demographic collapse endangers their existence... and Russia does not value the rural Eastern part of its population at all, so sending those men to their deaths is probably something they see as a win, as far as disposing of people they have no work for and who they fear might turn rebellious when the vodka and krokodil run out... absorbing 20 million "European" "Russians" that are generally more educated (supposedly, the Russian education system kind of collapsed in the early 00s) would give them a boost.
And considering the demographic collapse that is probably going to bring down both Russia and China as it stands now... what will a world without the two of them as a force look like?
It's more about holding Europe together as an entity that doesn't revert to pre-WII wars among neighbors that turns into a shitshow and disrupts everything.
And then nuclear proliferation... some of these countries have parliamentary systems that can swing from one extreme to another... with Neo-Nazis and Neo-Communist parties that have bursts of popularity. Do we want one of those parties to come into power and have control of nukes? Without confidence in the US/NATO providing the nuclear umbrella they're going to want their own, and that's not good.
We didn't really learn our lesson from WWI... but we did from WWII, and we put a system in place that gave us the "Long Peace." I know everybody screams about "Globalism," and it is bad when taken to ridiculous extremes (which we've done a lot)... but the concept was that countries did not need to attack and invade other countries for resources, anymore... they could buy them on the open market.
China... doesn't seem to be concerned with projecting military power beyond reclaiming Taiwan (and that's more of a personal obsession of Xi's at this moment... based in fears of people thinking Taiwan has a legitimate claim to power in China) and seems more set on being a major global economic force as a way to accrue power. Something they seem to be agitated with Putin for screwing with...
Russia... this is where people scratch their heads. In that respect, globalism was enriching Russia (or at least Putin and his Oligarchs) and invading other countries like Ukraine makes no real sense...
But "human beings" can be the most valuable resource, and besides Putin's dreams of reclaiming the Russian/Soviet Empire of old and his paranoia about security and having buffer states under his control, Russia's demographic collapse endangers their existence... and Russia does not value the rural Eastern part of its population at all, so sending those men to their deaths is probably something they see as a win, as far as disposing of people they have no work for and who they fear might turn rebellious when the vodka and krokodil run out... absorbing 20 million "European" "Russians" that are generally more educated (supposedly, the Russian education system kind of collapsed in the early 00s) would give them a boost.
And considering the demographic collapse that is probably going to bring down both Russia and China as it stands now... what will a world without the two of them as a force look like?
0
Posted on 4/26/24 at 4:58 pm to TigersnJeeps
quote:
If the Ukrainians believe they are in an existential battle to save their nation, let them attack what they think gives them the best chance to stop Russia.
I think some here would bitch about Zelensky and Ukraine no matter what Ukraine does or does not do...
I've seen people ask "if the US is producing more oil than anybody ever in history, and Russian oil is sanctioned and only going to China and India for dirt cheap... how would this cause turmoil in the Oil Market and higher gas prices in the US? Wouldn't OPEC just grab that market share at normal prices?"
The Oil Market is "emotional"... it rises and falls more on what traders think and feel might happen than on what actually happens in a lot of cases...
Posted on 4/26/24 at 5:02 pm to Lee B
I actually just watched something about the origin of OPEC...
The Saudi King got angry at Israel prevailing in wars launched on it in the late 60s and early 70s, and like other Arab leaders at the time embraced the Palestinian cause (as in "We support them, but don't bring them here.")
So, to punish the West for backing Israel and to wield power he started OPEC and created the 1970s oil crisis by dictating oil production.
The Saudi King got angry at Israel prevailing in wars launched on it in the late 60s and early 70s, and like other Arab leaders at the time embraced the Palestinian cause (as in "We support them, but don't bring them here.")
So, to punish the West for backing Israel and to wield power he started OPEC and created the 1970s oil crisis by dictating oil production.
Posted on 4/26/24 at 5:08 pm to Lee B
Russia is starting to capture territory at a decent rate. A little over 20km² in the last 2 days.
Posted on 4/26/24 at 5:51 pm to bucknut
Posted on 4/26/24 at 6:09 pm to Lee B
If Ukraine destroyed Russian refinery capacity Russia would export more oil and refine less. Thus lowering crude oil prices. 
Gasoline in Russia would be more expensive and hard to get. But Gasoline in the rest of the world would be cheaper
Gasoline in Russia would be more expensive and hard to get. But Gasoline in the rest of the world would be cheaper
Posted on 4/26/24 at 6:52 pm to Lee B
quote:
I actually just watched something about the origin of OPEC...
Venezuela initiated the formation of OPEC
"On social media, sorting out fact from fiction or innuendo, well, every day is like April Fools’ Day."
This post was edited on 4/26/24 at 7:28 pm
Posted on 4/26/24 at 7:46 pm to CitizenK
Trump defends Johnson against the nutter congresscritters.
"It’s not like he can go and do whatever he wants to do. I think he’s a very good person. You know, he stood very strongly with me on NATO when I said NATO has to pay up," Trump told radio host John Fredericks after his Monday court appearance. "It’s a tough situation when you have what, I think, is a very good man. I think he’s trying very hard. And again, we’ve got to have a big election."
LINK
"It’s not like he can go and do whatever he wants to do. I think he’s a very good person. You know, he stood very strongly with me on NATO when I said NATO has to pay up," Trump told radio host John Fredericks after his Monday court appearance. "It’s a tough situation when you have what, I think, is a very good man. I think he’s trying very hard. And again, we’ve got to have a big election."
LINK
Posted on 4/26/24 at 7:50 pm to bucknut
quote:
Russia is starting to capture territory at a decent rate. A little over 20km² in the last 2 days.
They are just retreating with little time to fortify a line and Russia glide bombing them backwards at a hefty clip on a daily basis.
While zelensky is bombing refineries 100s of miles away his troops are being slaughtered on the front lines, and Russia is blowing up all the power plants his people need. Good strategy, lets see how it plays out. I hope all those poor souls are worth his villas.
Posted on 4/26/24 at 8:03 pm to CitizenK
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Western media continues to report that select US officials have resumed discussing the idea of “freezing the lines” where they are because the latest package of US military assistance to Ukraine may not be enough for Ukraine to regain all its territory. Supporters of the current package have not claimed that it would by itself allow Ukraine to liberate all occupied territory, and the discussion of possible end states of the war is very premature as President Joe Biden signed the bill authorizing the new package only two days ago.
Public meetings between officials from Russia, Belarus, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Iran, and North Korea have surged in recent days, with at least 10 high-level bilateral meetings between April 22 and 26, underscoring the deepening multilateral partnership these states are constructing to confront the West.
PRC officials claimed that NATO bears responsibility for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine amid meetings between PRC officials and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on April 26.
Ukraine’s Western partners continue to provide Ukraine with immediate and longer-term military assistance, particularly for Ukraine’s air defenses.
The Ukrainian military has reportedly pulled US-provided M1A1 Abrams tanks from the frontline in part because of the widespread threat of Russian drones and other strikes.
Russian authorities continue efforts to expand the definition of prosecutable anti-war sentiment to portray Russians who oppose the war in Ukraine as opposing Russia itself.
Russian forces recently made a confirmed advance northwest of Avdiivka, and Ukrainian forces made a confirmed advance in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast, although this advance was likely not recent.
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Tatar-Bashkort service Idel Realii reported on April 26 that Samara Oblast is forming a new “Batyr” volunteer motorized rifle battalion.
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) issued a joint statement on behalf of 45 member states stating that Russia has arbitrarily detained thousands of Ukrainian civilians in occupied Ukraine and subjected them to cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment.
Posted on 4/26/24 at 8:05 pm to SirWinston
quote:
I think about all the regulars in this thread are conservative Republicans.
GOP_Tiger and FalconsBravesDawgs have both said they are voting for Biden over Trump..
Folks, notice how casually this scumbag lies. He knows that I said I am undecided about whether to vote 3rd party again, or whether to vote for Biden. This has been pointed out to him before, so he knows that he's lying when he claims that I am voting for Biden.
It's who he is.
Posted on 4/26/24 at 8:11 pm to WeeWee
quote:
According to my cousin who works for Scalise the administration never presented a plan for Ukraine to win. The House republicans had to come up with the plan themselves. Jake Sullivan was just wanting to give Ukraine enough to kill Russian and Ukrainian troops until the election was over.
Of course. The silver lining to the delay in getting this bill passed is that it will now at least last until January, when a new Congress and administration can evaluate where things are and make corresponding decisions.
If the bill had been passed a few months ago, the funding would have run out this fall, when getting anything new passed would be impossible.
Posted on 4/26/24 at 8:14 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
Ukraine is stepping up counter attacks as a result of no longer having to ration materiel.
Ukraine very much still needs to ration materiel. The first drawdown of $1 billion is fine, because it'll take us time to send that, but there will need to be another one in a few weeks. Ukraine's stocks were simply empty for a number of these items.
Posted on 4/26/24 at 8:36 pm to GOP_Tiger
Missiles entering Ukrainian airspace right now. That's not including the 6 Tu-95s that are airborne.
Posted on 4/26/24 at 9:01 pm to ColtRange
Poles scrambling jets again.
Posted on 4/26/24 at 9:05 pm to ColtRange
quote:
Missiles entering Ukrainian airspace right now. That's not including the 6 Tu-95s that are airborne.
Do you have a job? Or friends? Or family? Or a life?
Posted on 4/26/24 at 9:33 pm to No Colors
quote:
quote:
Missiles entering Ukrainian airspace right now. That's not including the 6 Tu-95s that are airborne.
Do you have a job? Or friends? Or family? Or a life?
All of the above. I own a successful business, live on the lake, and have two young kids. Were my 4 posts today too much?
Why bad news for Ukraine provokes such an emotional reaction for y'all is beyond me, but I enjoy it. I'll be sure to keep you posted on the damage, I don't sleep much.
Posted on 4/26/24 at 9:37 pm to No Colors
quote:
quote:
Missiles entering Ukrainian airspace right now. That's not including the 6 Tu-95s that are airborne.
Do you have a job? Or friends? Or family? Or a life?
... or a soul?
Posted on 4/26/24 at 10:01 pm to Lee B
quote:
... or a soul?
For wanting the war to end as quickly as possible? How about the people funding a war they know Ukraine can't win, knowing full well it will just lead to much higher death totals? You know...the people you voted for.
If Russia was attacking civilians in these strikes I would obviously feel differently, they're not though, they're attacking infrastructure.
Posted on 4/26/24 at 10:03 pm to ColtRange
quote:
Why bad news for Ukraine provokes such an emotional reaction
You obviously are relatively new as a poster to this thread. We've been laughing at your Twatter sources for 2 years, namely OSINTDefender, Big Serge and Ayden. So much copium from those suckers regardless of who they claim they support.
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