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re: IHME model is getting better for the US...stabilizing as we get more and more good data
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:09 am to Salmon
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:09 am to Salmon
quote:Then that is simply disingenuous and a lack of a model would be just as helpful.
unfortunately, you are not always given the time to wait for better data
Hell, that could be significantly more damaging than not releasing a model at all.
1
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:10 am to UnluckyTiger
That link doesn't show what RB10 is saying.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:11 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Yes, you can. That is the nature of modeling. They can't make up numbers.
mathematical models are rigid for sure, but the phenomena they are modelling is extremely sensitive to the modeled variables and initial conditions and everyone knew that. I did my own model a month ago with early data and saw that even minor errors in reported numbers of cases cascaded into enormous errors down the pipeline.
The models should have had margin of error bounds or confidence intervals which were discussed. These margins would have revealed that the models were in their adolescence and not to be firmly trusted until more data poured in.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:11 am to JohnnyKilroy
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:11 am to RB10
Don’t worry RB, he can’t read apparently.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:12 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
That link doesn't show what RB10 is saying.
It's the same link I provided, and yes it does.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:12 am to RB10
Wasn’t it 82,000 only a few days ago?
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:12 am to RB10
quote:
The top range of flu estimates from 2019 and top range of the current Covid model are exactly the same.
Please learn to read the chart before commenting next time. Thanks!
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:12 am to RB10
quote:
Latest model is at 60k with the same social distancing practices through May.
Right. But that isn't the top range of that model.
quote:
Just using the data we have. Thought you didn't have a problem with that?
Oof. Not a good look.
quote:
My logic is this is somewhere between a terrible flu season to slightly worse than a terrible flu season.
That's been the same since the beginning, and it's bearing fairly accurately.
And my logic is that if we put as much effort into tracking flu deaths and preventing flu deaths as we did COVID, flu deaths wouldn't be close to COVID deaths
that is why the comparisons are dumb
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 10:13 am
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:13 am to Scruffy
It was 82 as of Monday.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:13 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Please learn to read the chart before commenting next time. Thanks!
I'm not the one who can't comprehend what I'm seeing scooter.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:14 am to Salmon
Well we have a vaccine for the flu every year so there’s that.
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 10:15 am
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:14 am to RB10
quote:
I'm not the one who can't comprehend what I'm seeing scooter.
Where on that chart does it say the top range is 60k for covid?
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:14 am to UnluckyTiger
quote:22,000 death drop in 2 days.
It was 82 as of Monday.
Hmmm...
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:14 am to Scruffy
quote:
Then that is simply disingenuous and a lack of a model would be just as helpful.
Hell, that could be significantly more damaging than not releasing a model at all.
I agree. But you and I both know that outside factors force the issue sometimes, especially something as political as this.
Politicians demand numbers.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:17 am to Salmon
quote:
And my logic is that if we put as much effort into tracking flu deaths and preventing flu deaths as we did COVID, flu deaths wouldn't be close to COVID deaths
What was it you just said? Oh yeah, "Oof. Not a good look".
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:17 am to JohnnyKilroy
The top range of covid now sits at 125,000. The top range of flu is 60,000.
Many of us have been saying for months that this is probably going to end up 2x the flu.
JohnnyKilroy, it is time:
Many of us have been saying for months that this is probably going to end up 2x the flu.
JohnnyKilroy, it is time:
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 10:17 am
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:18 am to Scruffy
quote:
Wasn’t it 82,000 only a few days ago?
Correct. Next week it will probably be 50K. The following 40K.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:19 am to Scruffy
quote:
22,000 death drop in 2 days.
because they updated the way they are tracking deaths
quote:
Based on the now multiple iterations of our COVID-19 death model, we have noticed that, for at least some US states, there are massive fluctuations in the number of COVID-19 deaths reported each day. These substantial day-to-day vacillations are more likely due to an artefact in how statewide deaths are being compiled and then reported each day than actual fluctuations in COVID-19 deaths. As a result, our reported predictions – that you can view and download from the online visualization tool – are now based on averaging the last three rounds of predictions. In other words, what is shown today (April 7) is the average of model predictions from reported COVID-19 death data up to April 4 (model 1), data up to April 5 (model 2), and data up to April 7 (model 3). We view this as an important refinement that helps to strengthen model stability and buffer predictions from data fluctuations less related to observed epidemic patterns and more driven by variable data collection or reporting practices.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:20 am to RB10
quote:
What was it you just said? Oh yeah, "Oof. Not a good look".
you have been reading a graph wrong while simultaneously mocking people for reading it right for the last page
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