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Message
1
Posted on 8/14/17 at 4:16 pm to JG77056
quote:
I've moved the line before...
Finished placing your $20 parlay and the cashier said "Next"?
Posted on 8/14/17 at 4:16 pm to The Mick
low IQ, pleb answer: yes
high IQ, mathematical answer: no
why would they choose to split 50/50 when they have an edge over 99.9% of joe gamblers?
taking a slight "risk" per game, by not having the wagers equally (knowing that they are on the right side of the line 55% of the time) is the difference between hundreds of millions of dollars
high IQ, mathematical answer: no
why would they choose to split 50/50 when they have an edge over 99.9% of joe gamblers?
taking a slight "risk" per game, by not having the wagers equally (knowing that they are on the right side of the line 55% of the time) is the difference between hundreds of millions of dollars
Posted on 8/14/17 at 4:19 pm to JetFuelTyga
quote:
50/50 is ideal.
just lol
this even sounds dumb
Posted on 8/14/17 at 4:20 pm to rocket31
quote:Interesting.
why would they choose to split 50/50 when they have an edge over 99.9% of joe gamblers?
taking a slight "risk" per game, by not having the wagers equally (knowing that they are on the right side of the line 55% of the time) is the difference between hundreds of millions of dollars
Posted on 8/14/17 at 4:22 pm to The Mick
i mean, if you KNOW, like youre 99.99% confident in KNOWING you are going to win 55% of the time, why would you only take 50/50?
they have pulled the 50/50 delusion over many
they have pulled the 50/50 delusion over many
Posted on 8/14/17 at 4:23 pm to JetFuelTyga
quote:
Finished placing your $20 parlay and the cashier said "Next"?
Nah $800 on A&M 1h -20.5 over SMU. As soon as I left the window they moved it to 21.5 and there wasn't anybody else there betting so I assume my bet had something to do with it.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 4:23 pm to rocket31
quote:
why would they choose to split 50/50 when they have an edge over 99.9% of joe gamblers? taking a slight "risk" per game, by not having the wagers equally (knowing that they are on the right side of the line 55% of the time) is the difference between hundreds of millions of dollars
You say this, yet they still move the lines.
If they're confident in their line, but bets are coming in heavy on one side, why would they move it at all?
ETA: They know they're not going to get 50/50 every time, but they're not going to sit idly by if/when the money comes in too heavy for a particular side.
This post was edited on 8/14/17 at 4:28 pm
Posted on 8/14/17 at 4:26 pm to rocket31
quote:
low IQ, pleb answer: yes
high IQ, mathematical answer: no
why would they choose to split 50/50 when they have an edge over 99.9% of joe gamblers?
taking a slight "risk" per game, by not having the wagers equally (knowing that they are on the right side of the line 55% of the time) is the difference between hundreds of millions of dollars
This
Posted on 8/14/17 at 4:29 pm to The Mick
In theory they want 50/50 action but reality is they never get it. They have every piece of information about a game ahead of anyone else.
The spread is not a prediction, it's a number to generate interest. Alot of the time the spread is way off from the final score. They know in big games there won't be an even split on action and they already know the majority will be on the wrong side.
You hear these casino operators saying the public killed them on a certain game, its bullshite. They might lose on a game but they know they are getting it back next week.
The spread is not a prediction, it's a number to generate interest. Alot of the time the spread is way off from the final score. They know in big games there won't be an even split on action and they already know the majority will be on the wrong side.
You hear these casino operators saying the public killed them on a certain game, its bullshite. They might lose on a game but they know they are getting it back next week.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 4:30 pm to rocket31
quote:
quote: 50/50 is ideal. just lol this even sounds dumb
Which part of eliminating risk and collecting millions or billions worth of juice "sounds dumb"?
Posted on 8/14/17 at 4:35 pm to rocket31
What the hell am I reading here? There are no hard, unchanging mathematical odds in a sport book like there are in table games. They are in the risk mitigation business and 50/50 is full mitigation and they are then gayranteed a profit every single game.
They can have no certainty.
I will give you that they inflate the over/under because the general public loves to see offense and always bets the over so they are more comfortable with an imbalance there.
There is a reason different books have different spreads and odds. The very reason the point spread moves is to balance the books.
They can have no certainty.
I will give you that they inflate the over/under because the general public loves to see offense and always bets the over so they are more comfortable with an imbalance there.
There is a reason different books have different spreads and odds. The very reason the point spread moves is to balance the books.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 4:41 pm to JetFuelTyga
quote:
50/50 is ideal. It is also why lines move.
If $1mil is bet on Team X -3, and 200k on Team Y +3, the line is more likely to adjust to 3.5 in an attempt to get even money on each side.
I still don't see how they can do that without changing the line on people who have already placed their bets at the original line.
If the line starts at 7, and most of the money goes on the favorite, say they move the line to 8 to get money on the underdog. So, after the line moves, more people start betting on the underdog and the money evens out. But, then they've got a bunch of money on the favorite -7 and another bunch on the underdog +8. If the final margin is either 7 or 8, they could lose money (if 7, the underdog bettors win and the favorite bettors push, if 8, vice versa). The only way moving the line can protect the bookmaker is if doing so actually changes the line on people after they bet, and I can't imagine that they could get away with doing that.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 4:50 pm to crimsonsaint
quote:
Which part of eliminating risk and collecting millions or billions worth of juice "sounds dumb"?
The part where it's easier to make MORE money doing it the other way and fading the public on favorites and overs. Sports betting is closer to an efficient market than Wall Street.
This post was edited on 8/14/17 at 4:52 pm
Posted on 8/14/17 at 5:10 pm to Novae
Your way of thinking reminds me of an old college buddy that thought he was going to make a killing being a bookie. Instead of getting even bets and collecting the juice, he decided to layoff bets he thought would lose to other bookies and keep the ones he thought would win. It only took about 2-3 weeks before he was begging ppl for money to pay his bills.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 5:12 pm to The Mick
Scooch on Behind the Bets podcast (runs a bunch of Vegas sportsbooks) has said that they're getting less concerned with getting a 50/50 split if they're confident in the #.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 5:20 pm to crimsonsaint
quote:
Your way of thinking reminds me
Not my way, the professional's way. These large sports books are run by quants and seasoned pros, not guys like your buddy. They take very calculated risks. Your way of thinking reminds me of someone pretending on a message board that he knows what he's talking about.
This post was edited on 8/14/17 at 5:22 pm
Posted on 8/14/17 at 5:27 pm to saintsfan1977
quote:
The spread is not a prediction, it's a number to generate interest.
It is with respect to modern betting. An opening line that is too far one way or the other will get hammered by sharps. They don't pull these numbers out of their arse.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 5:30 pm to Nuts4LSU
quote:
and I can't imagine that they could get away with doing that.
You don't need to imagine. That's how it's been done since the beginning of time. It is often said that prostitution is the oldest remaining profession.
Before the first prostitute a guy told his buddy "I bet you 50 bucks I can bang her". Then he paid the prostitute $25.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 5:32 pm to JG77056
quote:
Nah $800 on A&M 1h -20.5 over SMU. As soon as I left the window they moved it to 21.5 and there wasn't anybody else there betting so I assume my bet had something to do with it.
That's not what he's talking about
There are a select group of people called sharps that vegas uses to create and adjust lines.
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