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Posted on 8/24/16 at 9:34 pm to rds dc
Convection is really starting to fire but it is hard to tell if any of the multiple surface spins are associated with that or not. Based on the last visible of the day, there should be one just to the WNW of that burst.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 9:39 pm to The Boat
Peej already said it was nothing to be worried about and go about life as normal.
Kiss your asses goodbye, and hope for the best!!
Kiss your asses goodbye, and hope for the best!!
Posted on 8/24/16 at 9:40 pm to rds dc
What's up with the convection and spin that was to the southwest of the center? How much will that mess up the development?
Posted on 8/24/16 at 9:41 pm to rds dc
Yeah, it is nearest to what appears to be the spin we watched through the day today. Hard to tell though since we can't get a good visible right now.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 9:41 pm to rmnldr
quote:
That's not how it works. Models and forecasts are fluid and do not always represent what will actually happen. 99L is still nothing more than a tropical low/wave and we won't know more about it until it actually turns into something or fizzles out.
It's kinda fricked up that you even need to address this. I will say it again...common sense, isn't so common anymore.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 9:42 pm to rds dc
quote:
Based on the last visible of the day, there should be one just to the WNW of that burst.
That surface spin was moving wildly NW to NNW before it got too dark. You think thats the one?
Posted on 8/24/16 at 9:42 pm to rds dc
Looking at the infrared looks like the low level swirl we saw right before dark is still displaced to the west northwest of that blowup, obvious it's hard to tell at night though. Wish recon would be flying in there later on.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 9:53 pm to LakeViewLSU
quote:
That surface spin was moving wildly NW to NNW before it got too dark. You think thats the one?
Possibly, but it is just too hard to tell. It could have continued off to the NW and dissipated, it could still be out there spinning, it could rotate back towards the convection, there could be another spin that wasn't visible earlier. It is kind of pointless to speculate without recon or solid visible sat images. It would be nice to have rapid scan ASCAT and microwave
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:11 pm to rds dc
The GFS has just been horrible lately and getting bettered by the Euro, UK and Canadian.
I'm sure it was probably posted at some point today but the 12z UK was similar to the Euro.
I'm sure it was probably posted at some point today but the 12z UK was similar to the Euro.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:16 pm to tigabait01
quote:
Is this a good representation of what's going on? The satellites don't show much, but this shows the winds struggling to make it around. However, that NE quadrant is ready to wrap around, just needs to clear the island mountains.
Agree?
I posted this earlier.
quote:
Invest 99L is currently located near 18.7N 65.4W, moving to the west-northwest at 15-20 knots. 99L is being slightly inhibited by the minor landmasses. Latest model guidance has also continued a downward trend in how early 99L develops and how fast it intensifies. The track through the next 48-72 hours looks relatively unchanged, and it should continue west-northwest. A ridge over the US East Coast should serve to prevent a straight north turn near Florida, and there is significant European model agreement about tracking the storm south of Miami, FL, and into the Gulf of Mexico. Here, conditions are favorable for rapid intensification. The latest ensemble guidance indicates an average track from Louisiana to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Disturbance 5-Day Projection
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:16 pm to tigabait01
quote:
Is this a good representation of what's going on? The satellites don't show much, but this shows the winds struggling to make it around. However, that NE quadrant is ready to wrap around, just needs to clear the island mountains.
Agree?
That is probably a decent representation of what is going on. IIRC, that is based off the GFS but I don't know how often it updates. Based on recon from earlier today this could go straight to TS, if it can ever close off a LLC.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:23 pm to rds dc
Little off topic but looks like Gaston is fixin to hit some decent shear
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:25 pm to tigabait01
Damn, look at that monster low near antartica
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:28 pm to rds dc
quote:
rds dc
Are you a Meteorologist?
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:47 pm to ByteMe
quote:
Are you a Meteorologist?
No, did my grad work on atmospheric dispersion modeling and continued to do work in that area for my PhD. However, got burned out working Katrina/Rita and took a job in DC. I ditched my PhD work at that point and never resumed it. Now I just have a bunch of useless knowledge but hope to move over to NOAA/NWS as a SES in the future.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:53 pm to rds dc
What day is this most likely to make landfall if it gets back out in the gulf?
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:53 pm to rds dc
Meh... it's just a bunch of showers. Even if that system tried to get its act together, it would take days before it would become a named system..which I see about a 5% chance of happening at best. Nothing more to worry about.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:54 pm to moffettduck
quote:
which I see about a 5% chance of happening at best. Nothing more to worry about.
Pretty sure the chances are way higher than that.
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