Top 12 Impact Rookies for 2016...Michael Thomas #8

8. Michael Thomas, WR New Orleans

2016 Projected Role: Complementary player; clear No. 3 (and primary "big-slot) receiver behind Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead who should emerge - along with free-agent TE Coby Fleener - as the team's top red-zone threats.

Why he will live up to this ranking and perhaps exceed it: Thomas brings size (6-3, 212) to a wide receiver corps that lacks it, so it isn't difficult to see what the Saints are hoping for here: Marques Colston was released in the offseason, so they need Thomas to give them what their all-time leading receiver did in his prime - a mismatch wideout that can play the "big slot" role and someone Drew Brees can trust to come down with the ball in high-traffic situations, especially near the goal line. Brees is one of about a handful of current NFL quarterbacks who has the ability to raise the level of his receivers (average to good, good to great, etc.) and HC Sean Payton remains one of the game's most aggressive play-callers, so average quarterback play and conservative scheme - two of the biggest roadblocks for talented young receivers trying to make their mark early - will not be excuses for this Ohio State product. Thomas also doesn't figure to face much in the way of competition to be the Saints' third receiver; although New Orleans has praised Brandon Coleman since the end of last season. Still, it is unlikely the club would have spent a second-round pick on Thomas if it knew it had a keeper in Coleman.

Why he won’t: Despite the fact that the Buckeyes have become a college football powerhouse (and NFL talent hotbed) once again under HC Urban Meyer, their spread offensive attack doesn't do much in terms of helping receivers hone their craft before turning pro. Many of Thomas' current shortcomings as a prospect are areas that require him to get "coached up" (coming out of press, playing through contact, working back to the quarterback when he gets flushed out of the pocket, etc.) or techniques that he may have already mastered if he had been exposed to a full route tree. The rookie's statistical upside - at least in terms of catch volume - is also going to be somewhat limited because Cooks and Snead will probably account for somewhere around 225-250 targets between themselves, while Fleener easily tops 100. Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller figure to get their share as well, so it shouldn't come as a shock if Brees' reputation for spreading it around ends up putting a bit of a ceiling on Thomas' final numbers.

2016 Fantasy Assessment: Thomas is capable of big things in this offense, especially since Brees and Payton are the men in charge of running it. There isn't a great deal of competition for the role the Saints have envisioned for him either. That's the good news. The bad news is Thomas faces long odds of climbing past Cooks, Snead or Fleener to become something more than a red-zone beast as a rookie. If he were a more finished product, maybe I would be more optimistic. There is little doubt in my mind his addition is going to help the offense as a whole, but expecting much more than the numbers Colston posted last year (45 catches on 67 targets) is probably asking too much, especially since Coleman will probably steal some snaps from him. As such, Keyshawn Johnson's nephew will likely be a bit of a hit-or-miss WR4 for fantasy purposes, capable of 80 yards and two scores one week and 30-40 yard games over the next 2-3 contests.

Fearless early-June prediction (six starts): 46 receptions for 605 yards and six TDs

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