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Started By
Message
re: The Penalty Controversy at the beginning of the Second Half.
Posted on 12/9/13 at 3:49 pm to afatgreekcat
Posted on 12/9/13 at 3:49 pm to afatgreekcat
Thanks, cat. 
Been busy today.
Been busy today.
0
Posted on 12/11/13 at 3:24 pm to Tigersaint09
Take the first. The first time I've ever seen a team decline a first down and 10 to take a second down and three. No imaginings posted on this thread throws any light on an unexplainable decision.
Posted on 12/11/13 at 3:32 pm to Blind Boy Grunt
It is the right call.
2nd and 3 >> 1st and 10.
A coach would take a 7 yard gain on 1st every time if given to them
2nd and 3 >> 1st and 10.
A coach would take a 7 yard gain on 1st every time if given to them
Posted on 12/11/13 at 3:34 pm to mentalis
quote:
No imaginings posted on this thread throws any light on an unexplainable decision.
it is easily explainable, you just don't want to hear with it.
You may disagree with the explanation, but statistically it is the correct call.
You have a greater % of converting from 2nd and 3 than 1st and 10. A 4th and 3 in the NFL has around a 50% conversion rate. I'd imagine 2nd and 3 to be between 80-90%
This post was edited on 12/11/13 at 3:38 pm
Posted on 12/11/13 at 6:32 pm to Blind Boy Grunt
quote:
Did Sean Payton make the wrong Decision?
Hell no
Posted on 12/11/13 at 7:46 pm to Blind Boy Grunt
Of course he did.."if he had to do that 9 more times he would take the penalty every time. Clearly Brain fart
Posted on 12/12/13 at 5:07 am to Chad504boy
JESUS CHRIST yes it was a bad call---move on--we dont know why he did it but he did. stop analyzing and overthinking. it was and always will be a bad call to not accept that penalty at that time. move on
Posted on 12/12/13 at 5:09 am to TigerBait1127
.........
This post was edited on 12/12/13 at 5:13 am
Posted on 12/12/13 at 6:52 am to JacksonLSU
quote:
.........
another brilliant post from the village idiot
Much higher odds of getting a 1st down from 2nd and 3 than on 1st and 10. You increase your chances of scoring on that drive by declining the penalty.
It really isn't up for debate either
This post was edited on 12/12/13 at 7:03 am
Posted on 12/12/13 at 7:43 pm to TigerBait1127
Here's an interesting breakdown
LINK
LINK
quote:
1st and 10, own 21: +0.38 EP
2nd and 3, own 23: +0.58 EP
quote:
It's a very slight difference, but if we're going to trust the numbers it appears that Payton probably made the right decision. These results hold up throughout the length of field, so it's not a quirk of being near a team's own 20. But it's close enough to be near the point of indifference (which would generally be a 2nd and 4 on a 6-yd gain). The results go against my intuition, and I'm not sure why 2nd and 3 plus 2 yards beats a 1st and 10--it just does. The takeaway here is just that Payton didn't make a mistake.
quote:
I know some readers who aren't familiar with EP might think it's some convoluted black box statistic, but it's simply the average net point expectancy given down/distance/yd-line situations.
This post was edited on 12/12/13 at 7:44 pm
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