Rotoworld/Silva Game Outlook

Fantasy related but some very good points- and he picks the Saints...

The Vegas total on Saints-Cards is 48 points, sixth highest of Week 1. Favored by 2.5, Arizona's team total is over 25 points in this sneaky possible shootout. ... New Orleans' pass defense enters the season in shambles. Since cutting ties with 2014 sack leader Junior Galette, the Saints lost top CB Keenan Lewis to hip surgery and third-round CB P.J. Williams (hamstring) to I.R. FS Jairus Byrd (knee) won't play in Arizona. Even after a shaky preseason, Carson Palmer is an attractive QB1 streamer and DFS tournament play. Palmer is as good a pure passer as there is in football when he has a clean pocket. He'll have time to throw against DC Rob Ryan's pass-rush-deficient unit. ... Having signed Chris Johnson and used a top-90 draft pick on David Johnson, the Cardinals will scale back Andre Ellington's workload after his body broke down and his efficiency dipped sharply on last year's 22 touches per game. The Cardinals also plan to employ Stepfan Taylor as a short-yardage/goal-line specialist. Ellington won't score many touchdowns this year, but he should be a PPR asset for as long as he stays healthy. He opens the season in great matchups against the Saints and Bears. ... Because both missed extensive training camp time with hamstring injuries, the Johnsons' early-season usage is unclear. Fantasy owners should monitor the backup situation behind Ellington closely. Chris looked spry and explosive in Arizona's preseason finale, while David is the club's biggest (6'1/224) and most athletic back.

Palmer's target distribution this preseason: John Brown 9; Ellington and J.J. Nelson 7; Larry Fitzgerald 5; David Johnson 4; Darren Fells 1. ... Per The Fake Football's Rich Hribar, the Saints' defense allowed a top-18 fantasy wideout in 6-of-7 weeks after Lewis suffered a knee injury last year. In Arizona's wideout corps, my pick for a big Week 1 is "Smokey" Brown, a 4.34 burner who appears poised to break out after posting a 48-696-5 receiving line as a rookie out of D-2 Pittsburg State. The Saints' left cornerback position looks like a potential sieve, while 6-foot-4, 221-pound RCB Brandon Browner lacks the quicks and long speed to guard Brown when they meet on an island. ... The Cards' highest-floor receiver play is Fitzgerald, whose pace stats in Palmer's six 2014 starts were 86-1,288-6 on 110 targets. Fitzgerald recently turned 32 and is short on big-play ability at this stage of his career, but I like his chances of seeing 8-10 targets versus New Orleans, and paying dividends as a limited-ceiling WR3. ... Michael Floyd missed almost all of camp after fracturing and dislocating three fingers on his left hand so severely that they punctured through Floyd's palm. Floyd will likely play against the Saints, but the missed time with Palmer is a concern for their early-season chemistry. Floyd's pace stats in last year's Palmer starts were an uninspiring 46 catches, 693 yards, and six scores on 80 targets.

The projected game script derived from Vegas' line on this game isn't ideal for Mark Ingram, but others will notice that, too. In DFS, Ingram is my favorite contrarian play of Week 1. C.J. Spiller's (knee) absence will likely translate to more passing-game usage for Ingram, while Arizona's defense is primed for regression with DC Todd Bowles gone to the Jets. And the Cards' front-seven personnel isn't very good. Gone are key run defenders NT Dan Williams, OLB Matt Shaughnessy, and ILB Larry Foote. To replace Williams, Arizona has turned to Rodney Gunter, a fourth-round rookie out of Delaware State. Replacing Shaughnessy is washed-up LaMarr Woodley. Replacing Foote is Sean Weatherspoon, who tore his Achilles' last year, missed most of camp with a hamstring injury, and hasn't played a regular season snap since December 2013. Khiry Robinson may mix in for 6-9 touches, but this should be the Ingram show behind New Orleans' much-improved offensive line. ... This game's relatively aggressive Vegas total and Arizona's pass-rush shortage bode well for Drew Brees' outlook, even if his pass-catcher corps is arguably the most suspect of his career. My guess is this will be a solid-if-unspectacular game for Brees as the Saints stay committed to the run in an effort to protect their porous defense.

Brandin Cooks probably has the best matchup of any Saints player this week. The Cards are in bad shape at cornerback, where they're replacing Antonio Cromartie with journeyman type Jerraud Powers, and severely-overrated Patrick Peterson lacks the short-area quicks to handle Cooks' blinding jukes. Cooks lit up the preseason, catching seven balls for 164 yards and two touchdowns, and will also be funneled the ball in the running game. ... Look for Peterson to square off more with Marques Colston and 6-foot-6, 225-pound sophomore Brandon Coleman. Colston's role was scaled back in 2014 to the extent that he finished with the second fewest targets of his career on a Saints team that led the NFC in pass attempts. He was one of the least effective receivers in football and likely doesn't have much left at age 32. Coleman, who ran ahead of Colston in August, has great size and length (34-inch arms) but looked pedestrian in preseason games. When evaluating the Saints' Nos. 2 and 3 receivers, I'm taking a wait-and-see, see-it-and-I'll-believe-it approach. ... Ben Watson turns 35 in December and might be the least-sexy fantasy option in today's NFL. But a fantasy option Watson is, at least as a TE1 streamer and minimum-priced DFS play. Annually rinsed by tight ends, last year's Cardinals yielded the fifth most fantasy points in the league to the position, and the makeup of their defense has only gotten worse. Pretty much all signs point to Watson opening the season ahead of Josh Hill on the depth chart. Hill is expected to sprinkle into two-tight end sets as a sub-package player.

Score Prediction: Saints 27, Cardinals 23