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Started By
Message
re: Loston or Sunseri? smh...
Posted on 5/11/14 at 4:42 pm to Patrick O Rly
Posted on 5/11/14 at 4:42 pm to Patrick O Rly
Trollol
0
Posted on 5/11/14 at 4:47 pm to EmperorGout
quote:
Man, I can't believe 32 NFL GMs disagreed with a noted expert such as yourself
Posted on 5/11/14 at 4:49 pm to Riseupfromtherubble
You can write a bio on the kids life for all I care. Saban has the best defensive system in college. He so tough on kids and such a good defensive coach, everything is a fine tuned
Machine when everyone is doing what they're supposed to do. Sunseri was a product of that. Honestly, most BAMA kids are....I think that's proven by the number of high draft picks vs NFL production.
And I'm not taking up for Loston either. He's an undersized LB, really. He's just not a good safety at all. I wouldn't have wanted NO to draft him either
Machine when everyone is doing what they're supposed to do. Sunseri was a product of that. Honestly, most BAMA kids are....I think that's proven by the number of high draft picks vs NFL production.
And I'm not taking up for Loston either. He's an undersized LB, really. He's just not a good safety at all. I wouldn't have wanted NO to draft him either
Posted on 5/11/14 at 6:39 pm to bonethug0108
Just running some quick( 
) numbers, there are 32 teams with 22 starters = 704 starters league wide.
Every year you have around 250 guys come in through the draft, and more in UDFA.
LINK /
Average NFL career of a guy who makes an opening day roster is 6 years(1st rounders average 9 years). Players that make at least 3 credited years average 7 years.
They don't break it down by starters(and that would be hard to do with injuries, guys getting promoted/demoted, going to start for another team, being a backup on a new team, etc.).
So let's say starters are those guys that way more often than not get at least 3 credited years and put it at 7 years.
So in 7 years you have about 350 players a year(250+ draft picks + about 3 UDFAs per team(96)) = 2,450 players coming in. That's 3.5 times the amount of starters in the league.
Making things simple, if every starter played 7 years and that was it and had to be replaced by one of those new players that came in over those 7 years, only about 29% of them will be starters.
Of those, most of them will be 1st and 2nd rounders. Over 7 years you have 448 of those. Not that they will all be starters but if you figure most of them are(let's say 85% for 381 players), that leaves 323 spots over 5 rounds and UDFA.
That's roughly 2,000 players for 323 spots, meaning only 16% of them will be starters. If we say the 3rd round is a (low imo) 50% hit rate for starters, that's about 120 guys.
Now you have 200 spots for 1,750 players. Only about 11% of them will become starters. Possibly only 11% of the starters in the league come from 4-7th rounders and UDFA.
So if you are EXPECTING those guys to become starters you are over reaching. It happens but it's like a 1/10 shot.
) numbers, there are 32 teams with 22 starters = 704 starters league wide. Every year you have around 250 guys come in through the draft, and more in UDFA.
LINK /
Average NFL career of a guy who makes an opening day roster is 6 years(1st rounders average 9 years). Players that make at least 3 credited years average 7 years.
They don't break it down by starters(and that would be hard to do with injuries, guys getting promoted/demoted, going to start for another team, being a backup on a new team, etc.).
So let's say starters are those guys that way more often than not get at least 3 credited years and put it at 7 years.
So in 7 years you have about 350 players a year(250+ draft picks + about 3 UDFAs per team(96)) = 2,450 players coming in. That's 3.5 times the amount of starters in the league.
Making things simple, if every starter played 7 years and that was it and had to be replaced by one of those new players that came in over those 7 years, only about 29% of them will be starters.
Of those, most of them will be 1st and 2nd rounders. Over 7 years you have 448 of those. Not that they will all be starters but if you figure most of them are(let's say 85% for 381 players), that leaves 323 spots over 5 rounds and UDFA.
That's roughly 2,000 players for 323 spots, meaning only 16% of them will be starters. If we say the 3rd round is a (low imo) 50% hit rate for starters, that's about 120 guys.
Now you have 200 spots for 1,750 players. Only about 11% of them will become starters. Possibly only 11% of the starters in the league come from 4-7th rounders and UDFA.
So if you are EXPECTING those guys to become starters you are over reaching. It happens but it's like a 1/10 shot.
This post was edited on 5/11/14 at 6:41 pm
Posted on 5/11/14 at 7:01 pm to Tiger Nation 84
quote:
Tiger Nation 84
Too much Bama in his head
Posted on 5/11/14 at 7:02 pm to Prominentwon
quote:
I think that's proven by the number of high draft picks vs NFL production
Painting with a broad brush aren't we? McClain didn't produce. Kirkpatrick has been hurt (made his first 3 starts a year ago and in those games had 3 picks and a touchdown) the rest are solid contributors. Dareus made the pro bowl. Jackson has been a starter every year, Hightower starts in New England, Barron starts in Tampa and was named to NFC south team. Lester was an UDFA and starts in Carolina. Don't let your hatred of Alabama skew reality.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 4:34 am to bonethug0108
quote:
Every year you have around 250 guys come in through the draft, and more in UDFA. LINK / Average NFL career of a guy who makes an opening day roster is 6 years(1st rounders average 9 years). Players that make at least 3 credited years average 7 years. They don't break it down by starters(and that would be hard to do with injuries, guys getting promoted/demoted, going to start for another team, being a backup on a new team, etc.). So let's say starters are those guys that way more often than not get at least 3 credited years and put it at 7 years. So in 7 years you have about 350 players a year(250+ draft picks + about 3 UDFAs per team(96)) = 2,450 players coming in. That's 3.5 times the amount of starters in the league. Making things simple, if every starter played 7 years and that was it and had to be replaced by one of those new players that came in over those 7 years, only about 29% of them will be starters. Of those, most of them will be 1st and 2nd rounders. Over 7 years you have 448 of those. Not that they will all be starters but if you figure most of them are(let's say 85% for 381 players), that leaves 323 spots over 5 rounds and UDFA. That's roughly 2,000 players for 323 spots, meaning only 16% of them will be starters. If we say the 3rd round is a (low imo) 50% hit rate for starters, that's about 120 guys. Now you have 200 spots for 1,750 players. Only about 11% of them will become starters. Possibly only 11% of the starters in the league come from 4-7th rounders and UDFA. So if you are EXPECTING those guys to become starters you are over reaching. It happens but it's like a 1/10 shot.
u had me till u messsed up the 1/10 stat lmao
This post was edited on 5/12/14 at 4:36 am
Posted on 5/12/14 at 7:40 am to Tiger Nation 84
Susneri might make the teams as a special teams ace, but I doubt he has much of an NFL future as a safety.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 7:56 am to Tiger Nation 84
quote:I agree man. I'm still scratching my head with that pick. Bama defenders blow giraffe nuts in the NFL as it is, let alone this bum. Only thing going for him is that he gets to learn under Byrd and Vaccaro. Hate the pick though, hate him.
Still can't believe we picked Sunseri, dude is lame as frick
Posted on 5/12/14 at 8:17 am to EmperorGout
I think he's Roman Harper partII.
And perhaps drafted in the correct round this time?
Coaches son and made the calls in the secondary. Is a solid tackler and can play the run well.
How many safeties are we carrying this year?
And perhaps drafted in the correct round this time?
Coaches son and made the calls in the secondary. Is a solid tackler and can play the run well.
How many safeties are we carrying this year?
Posted on 5/12/14 at 8:24 am to Tiger Nation 84
quote:
Loston or Sunseri
Both of these guys are essentially not worth getting into a discussion or especially starting a thread over.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 8:36 am to JPLIII
OMG OMG OMG YOURE A TIGER HOMER AND BAMA HATER!!!
Posted on 5/12/14 at 8:43 am to Tiger Nation 84
quote:
dude is lame as frick
watch your language
Posted on 5/12/14 at 12:46 pm to JacksonLSU
Please excuse me for parts of that post. By that point I was completely burned out on all this draft stuff so not all of that was with a clear head.
I'll have to find the link, but I figured I had over shot it with the 85% thing for rounds 1 and 2. I meant to say 85% for the first round and 65-70% for the second, but those are still high.
Not that those numbers are incorrect about guys starting period because I believe that's close(maybe even low) for the first two rounds, but I was talking long term starters.
Needless to say, however, the percent is still pretty low after round 2(I think for guys that have started 5 years+ it was about 60%+ round 1, 40%+ round 2, 20%+ round 3, 15%ish round 4, 10% round 5, and I forgot the last 2).
So if you are drafting players after round 2 and expecting them to be long term starters you will mostly be disappointed.
I'll have to find the link, but I figured I had over shot it with the 85% thing for rounds 1 and 2. I meant to say 85% for the first round and 65-70% for the second, but those are still high.
Not that those numbers are incorrect about guys starting period because I believe that's close(maybe even low) for the first two rounds, but I was talking long term starters.
Needless to say, however, the percent is still pretty low after round 2(I think for guys that have started 5 years+ it was about 60%+ round 1, 40%+ round 2, 20%+ round 3, 15%ish round 4, 10% round 5, and I forgot the last 2).
So if you are drafting players after round 2 and expecting them to be long term starters you will mostly be disappointed.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 1:45 pm to NOFLyZ0ne28
I say give the kid a chance. He's a hard worker. He's the same guy who kept Landon Collins (remember him?) on the bench until his injury sidelined him for the season.
I'm an LSU fan to the core- but I welcome Vinnie and would love to see him succeed here with us.
I'm an LSU fan to the core- but I welcome Vinnie and would love to see him succeed here with us.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 1:50 pm to oleheat
White guy playing safety. Doesn't appear to be athletic enough and is boring.
But really, we have plenty of backup safeties.
But really, we have plenty of backup safeties.
This post was edited on 5/12/14 at 1:51 pm
Posted on 5/12/14 at 1:53 pm to bonethug0108
Found it:
LINK
For five year+ starters:
Round 1- 63.6%
Round 2- 41.4%
Round 3- 21.5%
Round 4- 14.8%
Round 5- 10.4%
Round 6- 6.3%
Round 7- 5.5%
They don't have UDFAs but I imagine it's in the 5-7 round ranges. They may have better odds than 6th and 7th rounders as they can pick their teams and have a better shot at making it.
After the first round there is a sharp decline, and after the second another sharp decline. Then you get a more gradual into a crawl decline after that.
There is a 52.5% chance combined that 1st and 2nd rounders start long term, an 18.15% chance combined that 3rd and 4th rounders start long term, and a 7.4% chance 5th, 6th and 7th rounders start.
Back to my original point, you aren't drafting guys in the 5th or later and expecting them to become starters. Hell you aren't drafting guys in the 3rd and 4th and really expecting it(though many 3rd rounders become role players).
Edit:
Combined, there is actually only a 9.25% chance that guys from the 4-7th round start, which is slightly lower than my 1/10 guesstimate about 4-7th rounders combined starting. Long term of course.
Edit2:
Let me correct myself a little. Still suffering from burn out.
Before I was talking about the % of guys that become starters, not the chance. This post is about the chance percent, not the physical percent.
I need sleep. Bad.
LINK
For five year+ starters:
Round 1- 63.6%
Round 2- 41.4%
Round 3- 21.5%
Round 4- 14.8%
Round 5- 10.4%
Round 6- 6.3%
Round 7- 5.5%
They don't have UDFAs but I imagine it's in the 5-7 round ranges. They may have better odds than 6th and 7th rounders as they can pick their teams and have a better shot at making it.
After the first round there is a sharp decline, and after the second another sharp decline. Then you get a more gradual into a crawl decline after that.
There is a 52.5% chance combined that 1st and 2nd rounders start long term, an 18.15% chance combined that 3rd and 4th rounders start long term, and a 7.4% chance 5th, 6th and 7th rounders start.
Back to my original point, you aren't drafting guys in the 5th or later and expecting them to become starters. Hell you aren't drafting guys in the 3rd and 4th and really expecting it(though many 3rd rounders become role players).
Edit:
Combined, there is actually only a 9.25% chance that guys from the 4-7th round start, which is slightly lower than my 1/10 guesstimate about 4-7th rounders combined starting. Long term of course.
Edit2:
Let me correct myself a little. Still suffering from burn out.
Before I was talking about the % of guys that become starters, not the chance. This post is about the chance percent, not the physical percent.
I need sleep. Bad.
This post was edited on 5/12/14 at 2:08 pm
Posted on 5/12/14 at 1:55 pm to SnoopALoop
quote:
White guy playing safety. Doesn't appear to be athletic enough and is boring. But really, we have plenty of backup safeties
Don't get me wrong- I'm not looking for him to be a Rookie Of The Year Candidate.
But if the kid continues to overachieve, they'll give him a chance.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 2:26 pm to SnoopALoop
As an outsider with no bias towards LSU or Alabama (hate them both equally), I think Sunseri was the right pick.
He'll contribute immedietaly on ST and could work as the 3rd safety in Ryan's defense. He's smart enough to catch on.
As for being less athletic, he had better measurables than Loston in the two events he participated in.
He'll contribute immedietaly on ST and could work as the 3rd safety in Ryan's defense. He's smart enough to catch on.
As for being less athletic, he had better measurables than Loston in the two events he participated in.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 2:53 pm to SouthMSReb
quote:
He'll contribute immedietaly on ST and could work as the 3rd safety in Ryan's defense. He's smart enough to catch on.
This. I hope he is a stud on ST and should get a crack at PT in obvious running situations. If he doesn't produce on ST, he will be a longshot to hang around but he is smart, tackles well, and seems to always be around the football so there is a chance.
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