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Crapshoot: Draft Reality
Posted on 5/3/16 at 1:28 pm
Posted on 5/3/16 at 1:28 pm
Some might remember my endless draft chatter and multiple mocks a few years back. I embarked on a new phase of life in a different part of the world so my draft attention has been diminished. Beyond that though, deeper objective thought has led me to a conclusion that has also greatly lessened my draft fervor. Mainly, that it is truly a crapshoot and there are better things to spend that much time and thought on.
The past few days have added an exclamation point for me. That is, 5th year options. Fifth year options (1st Rders) are to me the ultimate pass/fail mark for a pick. There are several articles out on that. Here's from PFT-
As it turned out, players in the 2013 draft had basically a 50-50 chance of working out: Of the 32 players taken in the first round, 17 had their fifth-year options picked up, 12 had their options declined, one has already been cut, one has already agreed to a new contract and one is currently suspended and has no option to pick up.
The Top 10 of the draft was a little worse than the next 22; five of the top 10 picks didn’t have their options picked up, and Dion Jordan, the third overall pick, is suspended.
NFL teams, which spend several months and millions of dollars evaluating players, just can’t consistently say which college players will pan out and which ones will bust. The rest of us can’t, either. The draft is a lot of fun, but it’s a crap shoot.
LINK
PS- understanding this is also a great relief for those suffering from TDDG (They Didn't Draft a Guard Syndrome)
The past few days have added an exclamation point for me. That is, 5th year options. Fifth year options (1st Rders) are to me the ultimate pass/fail mark for a pick. There are several articles out on that. Here's from PFT-
As it turned out, players in the 2013 draft had basically a 50-50 chance of working out: Of the 32 players taken in the first round, 17 had their fifth-year options picked up, 12 had their options declined, one has already been cut, one has already agreed to a new contract and one is currently suspended and has no option to pick up.
The Top 10 of the draft was a little worse than the next 22; five of the top 10 picks didn’t have their options picked up, and Dion Jordan, the third overall pick, is suspended.
NFL teams, which spend several months and millions of dollars evaluating players, just can’t consistently say which college players will pan out and which ones will bust. The rest of us can’t, either. The draft is a lot of fun, but it’s a crap shoot.
LINK
PS- understanding this is also a great relief for those suffering from TDDG (They Didn't Draft a Guard Syndrome)
7
Posted on 5/3/16 at 1:31 pm to blueslover
Don't forget the long suffering TDDLSUP group 
Posted on 5/3/16 at 1:35 pm to blueslover
The top 10 of the 2013 draft is horrible.
Posted on 5/3/16 at 1:41 pm to blueslover
quote:
The draft is a lot of fun, but it’s a crap shoot.
30% of TD posters will adamantly disagree with you. They know who the best players are, and they will fight you to prove that Saints chose not to pick any of them
Posted on 5/3/16 at 1:55 pm to blueslover
Crapshoot would imply that no teams draft better than anyone else. It would also imply that accumulating picks would be the far better strategy vs. moving up. Also, there wouldn't be a correlation between success and draft position.
I don't think any of those things are 100% true.
It's not a crapshoot. It's just that "good" is far below 100% accuracy. Batting .600 on first round picks might make you the best. And, that there are hits and misses should make it more interesting to follow...not less.
I don't think any of those things are 100% true.
It's not a crapshoot. It's just that "good" is far below 100% accuracy. Batting .600 on first round picks might make you the best. And, that there are hits and misses should make it more interesting to follow...not less.
Posted on 5/3/16 at 2:17 pm to blueslover
I 100% agree that it's a numbers game. The Patriots have it down to a science. They mix statistical probability with finding players that fill a very small hole on their team, and build those guys up over the first few years. I think their scouting department is great in finding consistent contributors.
Posted on 5/3/16 at 2:25 pm to bountyhunter
They have a ton of misses, look at their top 3 round picks since 2011
2011:
1st: Nate Solder (17th)
2nd: Ras-I Dowling (33rd), Shane Vereen (56th)
3rd: Steven Ridley (73rd), Ryan Mallett (74th)
4 misses, Vereen was never more than a "3rd down back", Ridley had 1 good season but a ton of fumble issues. Mallett is Mallett and Dowling was just bad
2012:
1st: Chandler Jones (21st), Dont'a Hightower (25th)
2nd: Tavon Wilson (48th)
3rd: Jake Bequette (90th)
hit on both 1st, 2nd and 3rd fail
2013:
2nd: Jamie Collins (52nd), Aaron Dobson (59th)
3rd: Logan Ryan (83rd), Duron Harmon (91st)
2/4, Ryan took a huge step last year and Collins is a staple
2014:
1st: Dominique Easley (29th)
2nd: Jimmy Garoppolo (62nd)
Easley is done, Garopollo is still an unknown
2015: too early to decide
1st: Malcolm Brown (32nd)
2nd: Jordan Richards (64th)
3rd: Geneo Grissom (97th)
2011:
1st: Nate Solder (17th)
2nd: Ras-I Dowling (33rd), Shane Vereen (56th)
3rd: Steven Ridley (73rd), Ryan Mallett (74th)
4 misses, Vereen was never more than a "3rd down back", Ridley had 1 good season but a ton of fumble issues. Mallett is Mallett and Dowling was just bad
2012:
1st: Chandler Jones (21st), Dont'a Hightower (25th)
2nd: Tavon Wilson (48th)
3rd: Jake Bequette (90th)
hit on both 1st, 2nd and 3rd fail
2013:
2nd: Jamie Collins (52nd), Aaron Dobson (59th)
3rd: Logan Ryan (83rd), Duron Harmon (91st)
2/4, Ryan took a huge step last year and Collins is a staple
2014:
1st: Dominique Easley (29th)
2nd: Jimmy Garoppolo (62nd)
Easley is done, Garopollo is still an unknown
2015: too early to decide
1st: Malcolm Brown (32nd)
2nd: Jordan Richards (64th)
3rd: Geneo Grissom (97th)
Posted on 5/3/16 at 2:32 pm to blueslover
BUT THEY DIDN'T DRAFT ANY LSU PLAYERS!
Posted on 5/3/16 at 3:24 pm to GOON
This is an important thread. Not just for the Saints, but also for progress of society and therefore the world.
or Roll Tide if you are a Saints fan from Nola ....
or Roll Tide if you are a Saints fan from Nola ....
Posted on 5/3/16 at 4:27 pm to blueslover
Good post. here's what I don't understand about draft day posting on this board. I totally get being angry that we didn't address the position group you thought was most important. If you think we needed a guard the most and we took a WR, then I think it's fine to be as mad as you want to be.
BUT
If you think we need a DT and we take a DT, but it's not the DT you wanted... I just don't get the "WE ARE GOING TO SUCK, PAYTON SHOULD BE FIRED, 7-9 AGAIN" posts. There's simply no way any of us can know whether Robinson or Billings or Rankins or Winnie the Pooh is the best Defensive lineman in the draft. I know this because the stats prove that even the pros get it wrong as often as they get it right... as your post points out.
/end rant
BUT
If you think we need a DT and we take a DT, but it's not the DT you wanted... I just don't get the "WE ARE GOING TO SUCK, PAYTON SHOULD BE FIRED, 7-9 AGAIN" posts. There's simply no way any of us can know whether Robinson or Billings or Rankins or Winnie the Pooh is the best Defensive lineman in the draft. I know this because the stats prove that even the pros get it wrong as often as they get it right... as your post points out.
/end rant
Posted on 5/3/16 at 5:24 pm to Laaz2750
Richard Thaler, in his book on behavioral economics, Misbehaving, devotes an entire chapter to the right way NFL teams should conduct their drafts.
I read it a while ago but basically its better to trade down and accumulate more picks because, statistical analysis suggests, its a crap shoot.
I read it a while ago but basically its better to trade down and accumulate more picks because, statistical analysis suggests, its a crap shoot.
Posted on 5/3/16 at 7:26 pm to moneyg
quote:
Crapshoot would imply that no teams draft better than anyone else. It would also imply that accumulating picks would be the far better strategy vs. moving up. Also, there wouldn't be a correlation between success and draft position.
I don't think any of those things are 100% true.
It's not a crapshoot. It's just that "good" is far below 100% accuracy. Batting .600 on first round picks might make you the best. And, that there are hits and misses should make it more interesting to follow...not less.
This is where I stand. Saying it's complete randomness is simply not true. It's obvious some franchises are better than others.
I've said for years now that in today's day and age, with the amount of film and technology we have on prospects, there's next to no such thing as a 1st round prospect who simply can't cut it athletically. I find it next to impossible that some of these guys could hide physical flaws over the hours of tape and workouts they do in front of the scouts.
The draft is about determining which prospect will change when you give him millions of dollars. It's about finding the Tom Brady who's so driven he still to this day knows the name of every QB who was drafted ahead of him in his class. When you draft this guy, is he gonna think he's "made it" and get fat or is he still out there at 6 am busting his arse to be the best.
I firmly believe that's the granddaddy of all success/fail stories in the draft.
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