re: Trends in NBA draft lottery

Here's a TrueHoop article on how to fix tanking and the lottery. Here's one of their ideas

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Like NBA teams and markets, few sales forces have the same profile. Some may have a lot of customers while others have a few, and some may require a lot of travel while others have very little. As a result, there is variation in the opportunity each sales rep has -- not every territory is created equal. Similarly, not every NBA team should be expected to win 50 games at the start of the season. In addition, most reps or teams have a pretty good sense of how they will end up before the season even started.

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There are a variety of techniques used to set goals, accounting for a complicated range of factors. The league could invite a committee of John Hollinger, Kevin Pelton, Dean Oliver and other analytical experts to set the goals using their models. Another approach would be to "crowd source" the goals. The goals could be developed by surveying the teams (presumably the GMs), but there is another set of widely available crowd sourced goals for each team before the season begins: Vegas over/unders.

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LINK

There's a lot more detail. Interesting idea- rewards teams that don't tank and also helps out those teams that are normally stuck in no man's land in the draft- good enough to be a solid playoff team, but not good enough to contend.

One problem is that it doesn't take into account injuries- Hornets would be picking 29th based on this system

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2nd poster in this thread talking about it being the reason we shouldn't tank.

Besides it wasn't directed to anyone personally, just putting it out there in general.

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well since you called me out, i'ma go ahead and say this...you are really badly misconstruing what I said. i've said my piece about this at least 5 times on this board, so i'm not doing it again.

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Hornets would be picking 29th based on this system

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i said this before the season started...we had a VERY easy schedule heading into the season and a half decent, relatively young-to-middle aged team when at 100% health. so that would make sense.

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I'm just saying, people who would rather the 2nd or 3rd worst record b/c history has given those slots the #1 pic more often, are idiots. Yes there isn't a huge difference, but only a ra-tard would ask for less opportunities to get that #1 spot.

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It's not enough for me to want losses, but better odds are a great consolation for all the losses.

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but better odds are a great consolation for all the losses.

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That has been my mindset all year. I cheer for the to win every game...but if they lose, better odds are the consolation

I wasn't calling you out for personal reasons, but he asked where I got something from, so I provided an example of what I thought it was within this thread. Nothing personal.

Secondly, I understand not wanting to lose on purpose. These guys are professionals and want to win.

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We will probably have 167 or 173 combos going into the lottery. Washington will probably have 199 combos which isn't that different.

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Is it a considerable difference? No, but it is a 32 ball difference in your scenario which is a higher probability, why wouldn't you want the highest possible chances strictly from a numbers standpoint?

Every single draft before this has absolutely nothing to do with the odds of this upcoming draft. It's like roulette. Each spin is independent of itself and it has no memory of the past nor can it see future spins. "x" amount of lotto balls out of "y" total is what it is regardless of whether the worst record has won it 0% of the time or 100% of the time. It doesn't matter.

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This is what I have been preaching all season

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Yep, I am in full agreement with you.

Not a guarantee, but I'd like to be as close to one as possible. Especially with a player like Davis potentially on the line.

Right. That's an entirely different discussion. I was just talking strictly from a numbers standpoint.