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re: How good will we do this year?
Posted on 10/16/17 at 1:54 pm to labeast335
Posted on 10/16/17 at 1:54 pm to labeast335
ESPN says that Rondo's hernia improves the Pelicans RPM projections. That's first I'd heard of Pelicans projecting better without Rondo.
0
Posted on 10/16/17 at 2:11 pm to labeast335
81-1 regular season
Posted on 10/16/17 at 2:49 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
I think the West is more wide open than usual. Normally 7-8 is up for grabs but I think 5-8 is pretty uncertain this year. Injuries to key players will determine which of the 7-8 teams fighting for those last 4 spots gets in.
assuming 40 wins wont cut it, i think LAC, UTA, POR, MIN & DEN all are better positioned to win the 4-5 games more that it will take to get in at the bottom than the pels
i hope i'm wrong
Posted on 10/16/17 at 3:27 pm to cgrand
I like Utah. I think Portland is too thin in that if either Lillard or CJ go down for long they're done, but they've made thin work the past few years.
Minnesota is going to take time to put it together. They're too young and have too many new faces.
The Clippers are relying on some injury prone stars. In the last 3 years 67 games is the high number of games played for Blake, 63 for Galinarri. Teodosic is going to have to ball out for them to be injury resistant like they were in the CP3 era.
I really don't want to like Denver, although if I'm discounting them for lack of guard/wing creators...
Minnesota is going to take time to put it together. They're too young and have too many new faces.
The Clippers are relying on some injury prone stars. In the last 3 years 67 games is the high number of games played for Blake, 63 for Galinarri. Teodosic is going to have to ball out for them to be injury resistant like they were in the CP3 era.
I really don't want to like Denver, although if I'm discounting them for lack of guard/wing creators...
Posted on 10/17/17 at 8:52 am to TigerinATL
quote:
Minnesota is going to take time to put it together. They're too young and have too many new faces.
i dont think they win 50 games and they have some fit questions. but they are going to be in the playoffs.
the youth thing is overblown. OKC won 50 in Durant's 3rd year. Towns is maybe not that level, but he's incredible. Jimmy Butler is really really good too. some new faces, but Thibs vets on hand too.
Posted on 10/17/17 at 9:02 am to corndeaux
quote:
the youth thing is overblown.
Not when 2 of your starters, one of whom is your rim protector, were bottom of the league at their positions in DRPM last season. Butler and Gibson will help, but they are still going to play some bad defenders a lot of minutes in key roles. I expect them to pull it together by the end of the year but I think they'll be bad enough early on that the last 4 spots will be up for grabs heading into the last month of the season. I don't see anyone being good enough to separate from this middle pack.
Posted on 10/17/17 at 10:11 am to TigerinATL
Young, talented players get better. Took Davis a couple seasons to be competent on defense too. Again, OKC won 50 games with younger players in a better West.
Here's what I see: a Pels fan thinks all the Pels will play better together, but doesn't think that Wolves can have internal improvement or be better after adding Jimmy Butler.
Wolves have questions, certainly. So do the Pels. Just saying "youth and new faces" is as lazy as people saying Davis/Cousins won't work because of 1st 3 games last year or Pels only went 7-10 with that duo.
Here's what I see: a Pels fan thinks all the Pels will play better together, but doesn't think that Wolves can have internal improvement or be better after adding Jimmy Butler.
Wolves have questions, certainly. So do the Pels. Just saying "youth and new faces" is as lazy as people saying Davis/Cousins won't work because of 1st 3 games last year or Pels only went 7-10 with that duo.
Posted on 10/17/17 at 10:39 am to corndeaux
quote:
Took Davis a couple seasons to be competent on defense too.
I know DRPM is far from a definitive stat, but it seems to be one of the more highly regarded ones for defense. AD at age 21 was the #3 PF in DRPM LINK KAT at 21 was dead last in DRPM at center LINK The year before AD was middle of the pack at 27.
I'll admit the only times I watched him were when AD was abusing him on the court like a little brother he doesn't like very much, but unless you have a good eye test or flaw in the stat reason to tell me why DRPM isn't ranking KAT right, I don't have much faith that he's going to go from worse than everybody to even average in just an offseason. I do think by the end of the year with vets like Butler and Gibson leading the way he might actually start getting it. But I will be really surprised if they start the season doing anything but disappointing all of these people penciling them in as the 5 seed.
quote:
Here's what I see: a Pels fan thinks all the Pels will play better together, but doesn't think that Wolves can have internal improvement or be better after adding Jimmy Butler.
AD/DC got 17 valuable games together last season. And I'm not penciling the Pels in as the 5 seed. I think they'll start hot, then cool off, because of the schedule, and whether the rise and fall will depend on how good they can actually become. It's still a big unknown. The talent is there to be .500, but is the chemistry there to be better than .500?
This post was edited on 10/17/17 at 10:42 am
Posted on 10/17/17 at 10:50 am to TigerinATL
quote:
I think they'll start hot, then cool off,
last time this team started hot, it was paul/west/chandler/etc
evidence recently points to another slow start (schedule, rondo, weird new pieces, gentry, etc). if they go 5-5 in 1st 10 i'll be overjoyed
Posted on 10/17/17 at 10:53 am to cgrand
To say preseason discouraged me would be an understatement, and I usually put 0 stock in NBA Preseason.
But the starters played a lot, and outside of the first half of game 1...man. It didn't look pretty. Add in the rondo injury and lack of depth at PG.
I'm concerned about another shitty start.
But the starters played a lot, and outside of the first half of game 1...man. It didn't look pretty. Add in the rondo injury and lack of depth at PG.
I'm concerned about another shitty start.
Posted on 10/17/17 at 11:02 am to cgrand
quote:
last time this team started hot, it was paul/west/chandler/etc
You're forgetting the last year of the CP3 era where they'd have beaten the declining Lakers in the first round if DWest had been healthy. They started out 11-1 that year en route to 46-36. They had another hot streak where they went 10-0 in the middle of the season. They would follow up the hot streaks with cold streaks like 2-9, but for a few short moments during the season they looked like they could beat anyone and be dark horse contenders. That's kind of what I'm expecting/hoping to see out of this season. Maybe not streaks that long, but the stretches where they look dominant outnumber the stretches where they look incompetent.
This post was edited on 10/17/17 at 11:03 am
Posted on 10/17/17 at 11:08 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
I'm concerned about another shitty start.
its the most likely outcome
nobody will be happier than me if they start on fire, and the blender is rocking out of the gate
the evidence is not there to support that though
Posted on 10/17/17 at 12:03 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
AD at age 21 was the #3 PF in DRPM LINK KAT at 21 was dead last in DRPM at center LINK The year before AD was middle of the pack at 27.
i get the age comp, but it's fair to point out that it is AD in year 3 playing PF v Towns in year 2 playing C. let's see what Towns does this year.
there is a lot of room for Towns to grow on defense, no doubt about it. yet he's talented, has the best defensive mind of the past decade coaching him, and more vets this year who know how to play defense. i wouldn't be so quick to bury him
quote:
AD/DC got 17 valuable games together last season
2 talented 21 year olds in years 2 and 3 got 82 games with Thibs. like the Pels, the results were not always great. the Wolves also added Jimmy freaking Butler
quote:
penciling them in as the 5 seed.
it depends on what you think the 5 seed looks like. the people that thought they would make the playoffs last year were always nuts, same with all the Bucks hype a couple years ago.
the 5 seed this year might not win more than 45 games. and the 8 seed might need 41. i think it's going to be tightly packed. and looking at the Wolves, to get to even 41 is a 10 win jump from last season. that's huge.
that said, the Wolves had the net rating of a 38 win team. they blew some games (youth) and ended up at 31. if you think they are closer to 38 than 31, the jump to the 40s isnt nearly so ridiculous
Posted on 10/17/17 at 12:08 pm to corndeaux
quote:
the 5 seed this year might not win more than 45 games. and the 8 seed might need 41.
I don't think I have a problem with the 5 seed as much as people acting like there's actual separation in this tier. There are just so many unknowns and flaws for all of these teams. I think the only certainty is that Dallas is on the outside looking in, and even that's not a given because Carlisle has proven to be a wizard more often than not.
This post was edited on 10/17/17 at 12:09 pm
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