I think Argo has a legitimate chance to win Best Picture. I read an article recently talking about how many Academy voters wanted to make up for the Ben snub by giving him Best Picture. It has now taken the top award in the Globes and SAGs now.
I am actually really shocked because, although the film was incredible, they probably had the weakest cast out of the other nominees.
This year's Oscars will either go the way of 1995 or 1989. In '89 Driving Miss Daisy became the first film since 1932 to win Best Picture without also receiving a nomination for Best Director. Could Argo do this as well? It's very possible.
But then you look at 1995 where Ron Howard was snubbed out of a Best Director nomination for his work on Apollo 13. After that happened, the movie cleaned up at all of the major film awards. It won the Golden Globe, it won the SAG, it won the PGA, and Howard even won the DGA. Come Oscar night, however, Apollo 13's momentum was stopped by Braveheart - which won the top prize that night.
Argo has an even BIGGER hill to climb than Apollo 13 did. For one…Apollo 13 was second only to Braveheart that year with 9 nominations (Braveheart had 10). There are four movies this year who have more Academy Award nominations than Argo (Les Miserables, Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi, and Lincoln).
Argo does have a shot but, if history's any indicator, it's a very long one.