re: Crackpot ASOIAF Theories SPOILERS

Littlefinger's very first appearance was him telling Ned and Catelyn that the dagger that bran's assassin was wielding used to belong to him but was won off of him when Tyrion betted for Ser Loras as Littlefinger betted for Jaime.

Which we now know is a lie because like Tyrion said he would "never bet against his family".

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And littlefinger should be scared. Tyrion is the most powerful person in the game. ESPECIALLY NOW

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Tyrion is a player, but he's a player that can mostly be predicted by the best players of the game. He always does the logical thing, which is why Littlefinger doesn't always do the logical thing to outwit the other players.

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But littlefinger is playing a game that he can not ever realistically win. He is like Arkansas was the past few years, dangerous enough to compete but never really a threat to win it all. At some point in time Littlefinger's game will crumble and he will be left with nothing to stand on.

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That's not really Littlefinger's game though. He just merely wants to cause discord among the realm and greatly despises the upper houses. He feels its the reason he wasn't able to marry Cat. Littlefinger is not after the realm like the other players are, but he seeks to destroy it. Varys knows this and thus lets Littlefinger play his little game since it only meets Varys' own ends.

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Littlefinger has been destined to fall from the start. He is the dictionary definition of "too smart for his own damn good".

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Yeah, he's the only person who has come out ahead in literally every book. He's overdue for a rude awakening.

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Remember when Arya eavesdropped on Varys and illyrio's conversation in GOT? Arys said something along the lines of "and god knows what littlefinger is playing at" and then immediately after he reiterates that Ned is the one who worries him the most. Now Varys who is universally accepted as the MVP in the game of thrones isn't even worried about Petyr Baelish. Varys isn't the type to disregard a person based soley on their rank at birth either. No, if Varys truly saw littlefinger as a legitimate he would have voiced that concern to Illyrio while he was asking for more "little birds" and more coin. Yet he didn't? Why? The only logical answer is that Littlefinger is just another chess piece. He may not be a pawn but he is still being controlled by the man who is actually playing the game.

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I just think that Varys has figured out that he has no interest in the squabbles of King's Landing. And if the theories about Aegon and Varys being Blackfyres is true, then really Varys and Littlefinger are more or less on the same page on what they want to get done. Varys' plan is just much larger, grander, and more patient and underground than Littlefinger's is. Littlefinger is a player, but a player that the even bigger one has accounted for.

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I just think that Varys has figured out that he has no interest in the squabbles of King's Landing. And if the theories about Aegon and Varys being Blackfyres is true, then really Varys and Littlefinger are more or less on the same page on what they want to get done. Varys' plan is just much larger, grander, and more patient and underground than Littlefinger's is. Littlefinger is a player, but a player that the even bigger one has accounted for.

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This post makes me think that we're running in circles around each other. Both trying to say the same thing but not quite getting each others point.

I do think littlefinger is a very legitimate player in the game and, using the college football analogy again, has the talent and potential to ruin someone else's season but he just doesn't have quite enough to win it all.

The true powerhouse, the true master manipulator and the true master of the board (Varys) has already accounted for any moves and trickerations that littlefinger and/or Tyrion can bring to the table.

The difference in littlefinger and Tyrion is that littlefinger's presence leads to his company hating him. Littlefinger has no friends everyone of his pawns KNOWS that they are his pawns and that doesn't win him any favors.

Now let's look at Tyrion. He puts off an air that forces people to like him. Jon Snow, for instance, hated his guts before they left winterfell. Yet before Tyrion left the wall Jon shook his hand and called him friend. Bronn met Tyrion while Tyrion was a prisoner and Bronn was his guard yet Bronn became his closest companion. He talked his way out of slavery and into the most powerful sell sword company not named The Golden Company. He wormed his way into friendship with Jon Connington to the point that Jon risked and ultimately contracted grey scale solely to save his life.

Those are the reasons that Tyrion is the most powerful man (not counting Varys/Illyrio) in the series to this point. People have no choice but to love him and that gift is why he is still alive.

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He is just as big a player as Tyrion and Varys imo

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Littlefinger's weakness was Cat, and now Sansa. That is clear as day and even the show hinted at it prematurely when Varys visited Roz. He's played the game as someone objective who plays all the sides to get what he wants, the problem now is that fades with his boner for Sansa.

Varys is not in the most powerful position. He has hitched his wagon to the Blackfyre's and Aegon which currently have the most remote chance of coming into power.In fact he is rather desperate when last seen in DWD. Killing folks and such.

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Varys is not in the most powerful position. He has hitched his wagon to the Blackfyre's and Aegon which currently have the most remote chance of coming into power.In fact he is rather desperate when last seen in DWD. Killing folks and such.

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Why is that? Everyone hates the Lannisters, and the Dornishmen are likely to join Aegon. What if the Tyrells sneak Maergery out of King's Landing in effort to marry her to Aegon, and then declare their banners against the Lannisters? Sure the Dornishmen and the Tyrells hate each other, but I think they'll come against the Lannisters who have ripped both their families a new fricking a-hole within that generation. The Lannister Dynasty is about to fall, and their only hope for revival is Tyrion.

Tyrion is in very good graces with the person who is most likely to sit the throne next. Aegon has the strength of the golden company and most likely dorne. Those are two untouched very formidable armies vs the who are broken and void of leadership and/or the vale who littlefinger has a very precarious leadership over at best.

Looking at it at from a logical perspective (now admittedly this is GRRM's story and he will do with it what he will) Aegon should cut through his opposition like he is slicing through butter with a warm blade.

Tyrion is also in a position to make common cause with Dany who has three dragons, the strength of the unsullied and with Tyrion's help could also command the might of the second sons.

If you combine Dany's and Aegon's armies together (something that is very probable to happen at some point, if only for a short period of time) then you have a force that is absolutely unstoppable by any realistic means.

This means that Tyrion is in a situation that could land him being good friends and allies with the next king AND queen of Westeros.

He is without a doubt in the most favorable position out of any other man in Westeros aside from Varys.

Oh and winter is coming. I believe that means its a good time to have northern alliances.