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re: Why do they keep racing American Pharoah?
Posted on 8/4/15 at 6:09 pm to BilJ
Posted on 8/4/15 at 6:09 pm to BilJ
I felt the same way about zenyetta. I hated her races; you couldn't wager on them, and they didn't prove anything. her 5-6 year old year she was basically beating claimers outside of a few horses like switch and the filly that ran crooked whoose name i can't remember.
I'm not a beyer handicapper at all, but it's a good judge of raw talent. a horse that can constantly run a 115 beyer is going to beat a horse that constantly runs 105 more times than not.
lol the most money i ever made in one race was blame over zenyatta i had that pegged dead to rights. I did not beat any other race on the card and unloaded on blame to win. i spent days studying that entire race and came to the conclusion that zeyatta could win but probably wouldn't.
If you are into horse racing handicapping, there is one very important thing you have to know / learn. You can't EVER EVER get tied / fall in love with a horse. There is a time to wager on a horse and a time to wager against the horse. American Pharoah in the kentucky derby was literally stealing money. I remember in the 2008 apple blossom i told everyone balance's little sister (zenyatta) was going to smoke round pound and got laughed off the room. she paid 5.20 and i never wagered on her again
the gig was up. everyone knew then she was legit.
I don't hate american pharoah. he's probably my fav horse since Rachel. I'm just a handicapper. I have not wagered on american pharoah since the derby because the money is not there. he's lengths better than the horses he's running against not.
I will guarantee you i watch more horse racing then anyone on this forum, 40-50 hours a week and i'm telling you, AP s not Lengths better than the top class 4 yo's. that's a playable race. That's a VERY playable race.
You have to ignore the media, ignore DRF, ignore all the pundits who are telling you that X horse is better than slice bread and walks on water. There are 3-4 horses that if they are primed up would give AP a real run for his money going a distance he's not best at and running against the best field of his life. Throw in the fact t hat the jockey doesn't ride at keeneland normally and just about every other jockey in the race will know the track better than he does, I'm not taking 9-5 on AP that race when a horse like Shared Belief would be 5/2 / 7/2 and a horse like bayrn will be 5-6 to 1. that's silly.
I'm not a beyer handicapper at all, but it's a good judge of raw talent. a horse that can constantly run a 115 beyer is going to beat a horse that constantly runs 105 more times than not.
lol the most money i ever made in one race was blame over zenyatta i had that pegged dead to rights. I did not beat any other race on the card and unloaded on blame to win. i spent days studying that entire race and came to the conclusion that zeyatta could win but probably wouldn't.
If you are into horse racing handicapping, there is one very important thing you have to know / learn. You can't EVER EVER get tied / fall in love with a horse. There is a time to wager on a horse and a time to wager against the horse. American Pharoah in the kentucky derby was literally stealing money. I remember in the 2008 apple blossom i told everyone balance's little sister (zenyatta) was going to smoke round pound and got laughed off the room. she paid 5.20 and i never wagered on her again
the gig was up. everyone knew then she was legit. I don't hate american pharoah. he's probably my fav horse since Rachel. I'm just a handicapper. I have not wagered on american pharoah since the derby because the money is not there. he's lengths better than the horses he's running against not.
I will guarantee you i watch more horse racing then anyone on this forum, 40-50 hours a week and i'm telling you, AP s not Lengths better than the top class 4 yo's. that's a playable race. That's a VERY playable race.
You have to ignore the media, ignore DRF, ignore all the pundits who are telling you that X horse is better than slice bread and walks on water. There are 3-4 horses that if they are primed up would give AP a real run for his money going a distance he's not best at and running against the best field of his life. Throw in the fact t hat the jockey doesn't ride at keeneland normally and just about every other jockey in the race will know the track better than he does, I'm not taking 9-5 on AP that race when a horse like Shared Belief would be 5/2 / 7/2 and a horse like bayrn will be 5-6 to 1. that's silly.
1
Posted on 8/4/15 at 6:13 pm to SystemsGo
quote:
I had to look up "beyer". I've actually learned a lot from this thread.
now i'm really going to blow your fricking mind lol. look up "Rag sheets" lol or ragozin sheets
this is what most hard core handicappers use that use numbers. The lower the number the better
This post was edited on 8/4/15 at 6:15 pm
Posted on 8/4/15 at 6:26 pm to vengeanceofrain
1. The jockey isn't a keenland regular
2. AP's best distance is easily 9F. If he got to chose his distance that's what he would run. He's good enough to beat 3YO's going 10F and longer but I don't know if he's good eough to beat top class 4YO's going longer
3. I pesonally do not like the dogging of older horses until the classic. that just in the past has not been a very prudent strategy if your intent is to win the BC
4. More than anything, there are different types of dirt tracks. Oaklawn / Churchill / Belmont / Monmouth all have deep dirt tracks. A horse that can handle oaklawn is 9 out of 10 times is going to LOVE Churchill. That's one of the reasons horses from the Arkansas derby do so well in the derby. That's also one of the reasons that horses from Gulfstream do not do as well in the derby that's a very hard, thin dirt track very much different than the one Churchill has.
Keenelands dirt track resembles Gulfstream the most. It used to be called keeneland speedway lol it's not so much dirt as much as it is brown concrete lol. It's fast. it's hard. It significantly favors front runners. I'm not 100% sold that AP is going to take to the track.
2. AP's best distance is easily 9F. If he got to chose his distance that's what he would run. He's good enough to beat 3YO's going 10F and longer but I don't know if he's good eough to beat top class 4YO's going longer
3. I pesonally do not like the dogging of older horses until the classic. that just in the past has not been a very prudent strategy if your intent is to win the BC
4. More than anything, there are different types of dirt tracks. Oaklawn / Churchill / Belmont / Monmouth all have deep dirt tracks. A horse that can handle oaklawn is 9 out of 10 times is going to LOVE Churchill. That's one of the reasons horses from the Arkansas derby do so well in the derby. That's also one of the reasons that horses from Gulfstream do not do as well in the derby that's a very hard, thin dirt track very much different than the one Churchill has.
Keenelands dirt track resembles Gulfstream the most. It used to be called keeneland speedway lol it's not so much dirt as much as it is brown concrete lol. It's fast. it's hard. It significantly favors front runners. I'm not 100% sold that AP is going to take to the track.
Posted on 8/4/15 at 6:46 pm to vengeanceofrain
quote:
American Pharoah in the kentucky derby was literally stealing money.
100% agree with this. Hell I was telling everyone after the Rebel that bet all you want on any sports book you can for early wagering. My buddy locked him in at 7/2 before the Arkansas Derby. Like you I have yet to bet on him since. However, I almost cried when I saw the Preakness Exacta. A $10 Exacta wheel with AP/All would have cost $70 and returned $622. So There is value in big favorites. In fact Keeneland (pre polytrack) gave money away. Find the horse that went to the front, throw two or three in behind it and wheel the hell out of it and watch the merry go round and go cash tickets. The only reason I haven't been playing exotics with AP after the Derby is because I just wanted to be a fan and watch him run. Also, I know you know what you're talking about, its obvious. So as someone who knows racing well, don't you just see something special about the AP's stride? He just looks different.
One more thing before I submit this. You can talk shite about Victor not knowing Keeneland and so forth, but he also doesn't know Belmont very well. I also think Victor may spend quite a bit of the meet there this fall just for this reason. I'd be more concerned about a jockey not knowing Keeneland's Turf course. Its been biased towards the 5-6 path for years. If you are on the rail, you won't win.
Posted on 8/4/15 at 6:50 pm to vengeanceofrain
quote:
It used to be called keeneland speedway lol it's not so much dirt as much as it is brown concrete lol. It's fast. it's hard. It significantly favors front runners. I'm not 100% sold that AP is going to take to the track.
Those were the good old days. A wise man once told me that a good horse can run on anything. I also think the new dirt leads a little towards speed, so I actually think AP couldn't have picked a better track for the Classic. It will also be interesting that very few if any of the horses in the BC Classic field will have ever run on the dirt at Keeneland.
Posted on 8/4/15 at 11:08 pm to Bho
Fwiw, husband says the new track is a strange mix. Says it almost runs kinder to turf horses than most other dirt tracks. Not as kind as poly, mind you, but still not too bad on them.
Also says the drainage is really good. Just said it was one of the most interesting surfaces he's trained on.
I walked through it after a rain and it just felt like mud to me
Guess that's why I show.
Also says the drainage is really good. Just said it was one of the most interesting surfaces he's trained on.
I walked through it after a rain and it just felt like mud to me
Guess that's why I show.
Posted on 8/5/15 at 4:19 am to Aspercel
I am confused. "Horses that run at Gulfstream don't run well in the Derby?" Ok, so Orb, Big Brown, Barbaro, and Manarchos apparently didn't run at Gulfstream and win the Derby? Belmont and Monmouth have no Derby preps. Might wanna put in some overtime "handicapping" and get facts straight. AP is light years ahead of any 4 year old and up colt. Thank God Keeneland switched back to dirt
Posted on 8/5/15 at 6:32 am to ChurchillVFW
To the extent that the remainder of my prior posts are totally disregarded, I would still like to know when a horse is considered to be in their racing prime.
Posted on 8/5/15 at 8:41 am to ChurchillVFW
I'm guessing that isn't aimed at me?
Posted on 8/5/15 at 8:42 am to SystemsGo
Depends on each individual horse. Some are best at 2, some take time.
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