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Everyone has been over this, the Pac has said they will never accept BYU.

And Oklahoma would never ever ever join the SEC.

They would go Indy with Texas if both had no option.

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Dan Wetzel on Yahoo has said he thinks expansion will die when cable channels go a la carte and ESPN/conferences can't shove their subscriber fees down everyone's throat.

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That's kind of what I've thought the last few years, but it'll be a slow process. I don't think conferences want Rutgers-like red herrings (no offense to you B1G guys) hanging over them. That addition, both at the time and now, seemed like a short-term cash grab that was not particularly strategically intelligent long-term; Nebraska, Penn State, and even to a lesser extent Maryland were good adds - I have never really understood the Rutgers add, as I still don't think the conference cable model (and most cable models, for that matter) in its current form is all that sustainable.

I happen to think a lot of it depends on the health of football in twenty or thirty years. Conferences will look very different if the quality of the sport is way down or health concerns become over-riding.

I think you could see one of two things happen:

- The major conferences all get to around 16 and then start to break apart back to 7 - 8 team conferences. At that size, conferences don't have all that much cohesion and teams are just in simple strategic alliances. If certain chunks of the conferences (say, the PAC 12 South or B1G East) think they can make out much better without programs a 1,000+ miles away with whom they have little in common, then they'll do it. This would work sort of how companies in certain industries go through cycles of M&A for many years and then cycles of break-offs/spin-offs for many years.

- Some of the bigger players (Texas, Michigan, SC, Alabama, Florida, etc.) start to explore independence.

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This would work sort of how companies in certain industries go through cycles of M&A for many years and then cycles of break-offs/spin-offs for many years.

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I can see that.

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I think the most dangerous aspect is they're basing expansion entirely too much on one sport.

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Better model for them might be superconferences for football, traditional conferences for MBB, and tight geographic conferences for nonrevenue sports.

There will be 5 super conferences of 16 teams, and then the mid majors.

Playoff will go to 8 teams with the 5 super conferences champions and 1 from champion from the other conferences (if ranked in top 8), the other teams to fill out playoff spots will be based on final ranking



Big 10-
Big 12-
ACC-
Sec-
Pac 12-
Mountain west-
Conference USA-
Independents-
Sun belt-

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I think the most dangerous aspect is they're basing expansion entirely too much on one sport.

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Long-term, that certainly is one of the bigger threats, if not the biggest.

I think the larger short-term threat is the disruption of current cable TV model. Subscriber numbers for the bigger conference networks (namely, the SEC and B1G) are pretty healthy at the moment, but I just haven't seen any market research data that's able to un-bundle conference network subscriptions and conference contracts from general cable contracts. If it's out there, I'd like to see it - it seems like something right up WSJ's alley. The conferences are already pre-empting this a bit by putting more and more live content on the conference networks, but quality of competition and brand - and not market size - still matter a great deal in this field.

You also have secondary threats like generational shifts in sports-watching methods, further demographic shifts, and attitudinal shifts regarding university finances.

I guess I don't pay attention to them or really conference expansion but what's the issue P5 conferences have with adding BYU?

I see the BIG going after Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas if re-alignment does take place.

The Pac will never add BYU.
The Big 10 will never add Iowa State.
The SEC will never add Oklahoma State.

The SEC when we expand will get some combination of Oklahoma, Kansas, a North Carolina school (or 2 if Duke + UNC), a Virginia school, and\or West Virginia.

None of the above 3 conferences will ever add a school from a state they already have a member in except in the case of adding UNC + Duke or in the case of taking Texas when already having a Texas school. (or taking Tech with Texas as the Pac will probably do)