re: The Cardinals are better than analysts are predicting

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Strop is very average

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Pedro Strop (2.68 ERA, 0.98 WHIP in 211 1/3 innings as a Cub). Yep

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If the Cubs top 3 are Davis, Rondon and Strop I'll take my chances with the Cardinals top 3.

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Oh, Cecil and Rosenthal?

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Oh, Cecil and Rosenthal?

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Sub Siegrist for Cecil.

Also maybe I just thought Strop was average because it seems the Cardinals have beaten him a few times. Those are much better #'s than I thought.

I think the difference is Rosenthal. He was hurt last year and blew up. If he's healthy he makes the difference. If not then I'll give the advantage to the Cubs.

Carlos Marmol part II

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Cubs need to give up one or the other - either the optimal lineup or the elite defens

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Well not really. It doesn't have to be that extreme because they are so versatile. Plug Almora in CF move Heyward to RF and Baez or Zobrist at 2B and you are still pretty much in business.

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Zobrist is not a 4 win player in RF

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Zobrist had a higher ops+ than Piscotty while playing RFl last year. The fact that he can play all over the field makes him more valuable, thus making his WAR relevant. No he's not a great defender there, but serviceable.

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Well not really. It doesn't have to be that extreme because they are so versatile. Plug Almora in CF move Heyward to RF and Baez or Zobrist at 2B and you are still pretty much in business.

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Sure. That's what I would do. But that is not the ideal lineup, and now you have 3 or 4 guys in there who are going to make a lot of outs (OBP in the low .300s or worse). The elite defense takes a big hit with the ideal lineop.

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Zobrist had a higher ops+ than Piscotty while playing RFl last year. The fact that he can play all over the field makes him more valuable, thus making his WAR relevant. No he's not a great defender there, but serviceable.

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You think his offensive performance correlates with where he stands during the other halves of innings? The last time he played 20+ games in RF he hit .227/.283/289 (.572). Individual positional splits are meaningless.

Nothing you wrote there addresses what I wrote. You compared Piscotty and Zobrist directly as RFs and called Zobrist a 4 win player. He loses a lot of value as a RF (which you seem to concede) b/c he's a poor fielder there and league average offensive is better there. If you are comparing position-by-position, you don't get to include Zobrist's value playing other positions. It is disingenuous. You either compare Piscotty to one player as a RF only, or you split it up among several players. I would take Piscotty either way. It was obvious Sunday night that Heyward still can't hit; his front side is still flying open.

A lot of poorly angled arguments in this thread while I've been away.

The Cardinals rotation is superior to the cubs.

Any past stats on Carlos Martinez are irrelevant. He's pitching fully ripened for the first time in his career.

Wacha is an elite arm who's struggled with a rare shoulder condition that seems to be fixed - we will see - if not, there's really great options in our system and we have the parts to get an established arm.

Lynn has been solid his entire career. An all-star. And now he's healthy enough to throw secondary pitches and in a contract year. Look out.

Wainwright won't be the ace he was but he will have an improved year. He finished '16 far better than he started. He's now fully recovered from achilles injury. Motivated to be solid. He will be.

Leake is massively underrated in all of these projections. His father fell off a roof and became paralyzed before last season, he also got the short-end too many times from his defense. He's two tiers ahead of the cubs fifth starter. He'll be steady-eddy every fifth day with great stuff.

The Cardinals bullpen is better. Any baseball person would tell you this. Our franchise single-season career saves leader isn't even our closer, and he may not even be our 8th inning guy. We'll have three legit lefties when Lyons gets back. We are loaded in the pen and have great options to bring up from Memphis when needed.

cubs have a legendary 1-2-3 in their lineup. The Cardinals top of the order isn't as special but it may end up being nearly as functional and after that 1-2-3 the lineups get very comparable if not in favor of the Cardinals depending on how certain players grow.

The truth here is that these two teams are not 10+ games apart on paper.

You don't have to believe it now. You will see.

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Nothing you wrote there addresses what I wrote

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You only wrote that he wasn't a 4 win player in RF. You didn't make a case that Piscotty was better. Not sure what kind of response you were hoping to illicit.

Piscotty is nothing more than an average RF defensively. And Zobrist hit better then him last year, whether you want to take his time in RF or anywhere else he stood for a half inning. So tell me, what makes Piscotty better?

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But that is not the ideal lineup, and now you have 3 or 4 guys in there who are going to make a lot of outs (OBP in the low .300s or worse). The elite defense takes a big hit with the ideal lineo

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p.

They had low OBP guys play last year and it wasn't a problem. Baez, Russell, Heyward. They lose Fowler but gain Schwarber. The younger guys should show improvement but even if they stay the same they offer extra base power, run driving in capability, and speed on the bases. I mean let's not act like we are talking .289 OBP Randall grichuk here.

Dude is pretty darn good, but luckily we have his number. This may hurt your BP against us all season, not sure if you guys can afford to send him out every time.

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Maddon's trust level in Strop was apparent last postseason

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Well he used Chapman in 13 G for nearly 16 IP. Strop kind of lost that 8th inning role once Rendon lost the closers gig. Mike Mont threw 14.1 IP in 11 G. Edwards emerged a bit

Strop still got run in the playoffs, but I wouldn't say Maddon didn't trust him, moreso he was riding with those other guys at that point in time. He may be the 5th best guy in a really good pen, which is fine