- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Sabermetrics folks--explain to me why BA is useless
Posted on 6/29/16 at 2:17 pm to Moustache
Posted on 6/29/16 at 2:17 pm to Moustache
Can't believe I just read through this entire thread.
All of the data is useful, but why focus on BA when there are much more valuable tools like wRC+ available?
I do agree that there needs to be some adjustments made to WAR from the defensive side.
I think team's defensive metrics are probably much more advanced and accurate than what you'll find at BR or FanGraphs.
All of the data is useful, but why focus on BA when there are much more valuable tools like wRC+ available?
I do agree that there needs to be some adjustments made to WAR from the defensive side.
I think team's defensive metrics are probably much more advanced and accurate than what you'll find at BR or FanGraphs.
0
Posted on 6/29/16 at 2:49 pm to Moustache
quote:Being emotional doesn't make you better.
So you're saying emotion is not real? Human beings feel no different at bat whether it's the first inning of game 133 of the season or the ninth inning of a tied World Series game 7. Seems legit
If there was this magic formula to make a player lock in and do better in "clutch" situations, can you explain why he wouldn't be able to hone in on that formula and use it with every at bat? It's absurd to think he couldn't use it as a daily routine and can only call upon it at certain times, that makes no sense.
Posted on 6/29/16 at 3:01 pm to shel311
quote:Well I would say that it is generally noise. It makes some athletes better, it makes some athletes worse, and it has no impact on some (probably most) athletes. We can't accurately measure what a person's emotional state is since it is so malleable and complex.
Being emotional doesn't make you better.
In other words, unless we are able to get biometric and psychometric data in real time, it's just error and probably not as informative as many think anyways.
This post was edited on 6/29/16 at 3:03 pm
Posted on 6/29/16 at 3:16 pm to shel311
No, I'm saying the clutch players do a better job of not letting emotions affect their at bat in high leverage situations. Feeling nervous or anxious in a high leverage situation is not something someone can easily control
Posted on 6/29/16 at 3:25 pm to Moustache
quote:But given the malleable nature of something like anxiety plus the differences in responding to anxiety and different levels of anxiety (the relationship between performance and anxiety is often believed to be U-shaped), and the limited sample, it's probably best to treat it as random error.
No, I'm saying the clutch players do a better job of not letting emotions affect their at bat in high leverage situations. Feeling nervous or anxious in a high leverage situation is not something someone can easily control
This post was edited on 6/29/16 at 3:26 pm
Posted on 6/29/16 at 3:31 pm to Moustache
quote:And yet the MLB player you named as clutch isn't really all that much better in the playoffs.
No, I'm saying the clutch players do a better job of not letting emotions affect their at bat in high leverage situations. Feeling nervous or anxious in a high leverage situation is not something someone can easily control
I'd figure he'd perform a lot better.
David Ortiz, also known as uber clutch, same thing. Average and slugging % are virtually the same as regular season, just his OBP is higher in the playoffs. Clutch walks, I guess?
Posted on 6/29/16 at 5:22 pm to Moustache
quote:
o, I'm saying the clutch players do a better job of not letting emotions affect their at bat in high leverage situations
but can't a player be completely calm and still make an out?
Not every game or championship is won on the last play or last inning, so when someone does make a game or series-clinching play we remember it, but it is total random.
Christian Laettner did not make that shot vs Kentucky because he is "clutch". He made it because he is a good player, it just happened at the last second. He probably could not recreate that shot if he had to.
This post was edited on 6/29/16 at 5:24 pm
Posted on 6/29/16 at 5:51 pm to shel311
quote:
Clutch walks, I guess?
Walks are bad remember
Posted on 6/29/16 at 6:45 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:my favorite line is regarding people talking about how Michael Jordan was the most clutch player ever.
Christian Laettner did not make that shot vs Kentucky because he is "clutch". He made it because he is a good player, it just happened at the last second. He probably could not recreate that shot if he had to
Well, he was the best player ever for the first 47.5 minutes of a game. It's not exactly a coincidence that he's the best ever in the last 30 seconds as well.
Posted on 6/29/16 at 7:01 pm to shel311
The argument there would be he plays some really shitty teams during the season, and baseball has one of the least waterdowned playoffs do it's almost always good teams/pitchers he's going against in said playoffs.
So maintaining averages against better competition could be seen as clutch?
So maintaining averages against better competition could be seen as clutch?
Posted on 6/29/16 at 7:59 pm to shel311
quote:
Average and slugging % are virtually the same as regular season, just his OBP is higher in the playoffs. Clutch walks, I guess?
He maintained his regular season levels against better competition and his anxiety didn't affect his play. Seems clutch to me.
Yet great players with just as many opportunities as Ortiz and jeter stunk it up like Vlad Guerrero, Wakefield, Soriano, Teixeira.
Posted on 6/29/16 at 8:46 pm to Moustache
quote:Let's look at one of these guys.
Yet great players with just as many opportunities as Ortiz and jeter stunk it up like Vlad Guerrero, Wakefield, Soriano, Teixeira.
You claim there's a clutch or non-clutch factor. So how do you explain this:
If Texeira's poor playoff play was due to emotions getting the best of him or him not controlling them, then why would he perform really well in his 1st playoffs, then choking/not controlling those emotions the next 3 trips, then getting ahold of his emotions to play really well in trip #5, then forgetting how to control them again the next couple of trips?
Does that really make sense to you?
This post was edited on 6/29/16 at 9:38 pm
Posted on 6/29/16 at 9:30 pm to shel311
And what about ARod? He was terrible his first few postseasons with the Yankees and got labeled a choker. He couldn't handle New York was the lazy narrative. Then, in 2009 he absolutely mashed, had a .365/.500/.808 and led the Yanks to a WS. So either he magically developed a clutch gene in 2009 or it was just normal random variation that occurs when you are talking about a tiny sample of ABs. I know which one seems more likely to me.
This post was edited on 6/29/16 at 9:32 pm
Posted on 6/29/16 at 9:39 pm to The Seaward
He figured it out is the usual go to response.
Posted on 6/29/16 at 9:47 pm to shel311
quote:
e figured it out is the usual go to response.
Well, one tends to be calmer and more effective after gaining experience in almost everything in life.
Posted on 6/30/16 at 8:33 am to Moustache
quote:What you just described isn't clutch then.
Well, one tends to be calmer and more effective after gaining experience in almost everything in life
Also, explain Texeira above. Clutch, not clutch, then clutch, then not clutch. How does that happen?
Posted on 6/30/16 at 9:31 am to Moustache
quote:
Well, one tends to be calmer and more effective after gaining experience in almost everything in life.
you are grossly overrating the anxiety angle. While it can happen, i would argue it is extremely rare with top level athletes like this to get completely overwhelmed. People however, like narratives. We like the idea that someone is "clutch" or someone "chokes" its makes for a great story, something we want to believe when we put so much emphasis on the outcome of 1 game. But if you think about it, in baseball, someone has to make a play, either the hitter comes through and gets the game or series winning hit or he makes an out, in which case the pitcher came through in the clutch.
Also if experience or getting older is the key, why did Jeter hit .118 in the 2001 ALCS and .148 in the WS that year? Or .200 vs Boston in 2004 in the ALCS?
This post was edited on 6/30/16 at 12:08 pm
Posted on 6/30/16 at 9:38 am to H-Town Tiger
quote:Exactly.
Also if experience or getting older is the key, why did Jeter hit .118 in the 2001 ALCS and .148 in the WS that year? Or .200 vs Boston in 2004 in the ALCS?
LeBatard talks about this a lot. When something happens in sports, anything really, even just an outcome with a game won/lost, we have to go looking for someone to blame, or assigning responsibility or trying to figure out why something happened. Sometimes the answer is "I don't know" or just "shite happens", but many sports fans refused to not know and have to have some sort of reasoning for an event to have happened. Like you said, someone has to win and someone has to lose, sometimes it really is just that simple.
The other thing is that these guys have done this partcicular thing their entire lives and been successful enough to make a lot of money and get to the very best league in their sport. Like you said there may be some rare exceptions and it's not to actually say nerves do not exist at all, but the overwhelming norm is for that these guys know how to handle it becuase this is what they've done their entire lives.
Posted on 6/30/16 at 12:06 pm to shel311
quote:
When something happens in sports, anything really, even just an outcome with a game won/lost, we have to go looking for someone to blame, or assigning responsibility or trying to figure out why something happened. Sometimes the answer is "I don't know" or just "shite happens"
not just sports, but the world in general.
quote:
there may be some rare exceptions and it's not to actually say nerves do not exist at all, but the overwhelming norm is for that these guys know how to handle it becuase this is what they've done their entire lives
Jeff Bagwell is labeled as a playoff choker, his career playoff numbers are pretty poor and much worse than his overall #'s. .226 .364 .321 2 HR (pretty good OPB though
) I don't think he was overwhelmed or too nervous, but just played like shite. He had 129 career PA. That's 20-25% of a season or 35-40 games. Even great players like Jeter and Ortiz have had a month or 6 weeks where they slumped and played like shite, and in a case like Bagwell we are talking about 3-5 games at a time, his first 3 playoff appearances he had 13, 16, 19 PAs. Jeter had series with shitty numbers too. It happens.
Page 11 of 11
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News