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Rewatched GB/Zona, here's why GB should've went for 2
Posted on 1/21/16 at 4:43 pm
Posted on 1/21/16 at 4:43 pm
GB scores TD with no time left.
If GB goes for 2, you are putting the ball in your best player's hands, Rodgers.
If you go to OT, you may have to trust your defense to get the ball back Rodgers.
Given a choice, would you trust Rodgers or GB's defense? I don't know about you, but would choose the option where Rodgers FOR SURE gets to touch the ball.
Let's assume that GB wins the toss in OT. Which has a better percentage? Converting the 2pt conversion or drive 80 yards for the TD?
GB for the season converted 4/6 2pt conversions. Small sample but that's a 66% success rate. That's better compare to a 20% TD rate on 10 total drives for GB for the game.
And think about this angle, GB has plenty of time to get in a good play for the 2 pt conversion because officials had to review Hail Mary. Cards D was still in shock and that's the best time to attack a D.
If GB goes for 2, you are putting the ball in your best player's hands, Rodgers.
If you go to OT, you may have to trust your defense to get the ball back Rodgers.
Given a choice, would you trust Rodgers or GB's defense? I don't know about you, but would choose the option where Rodgers FOR SURE gets to touch the ball.
Let's assume that GB wins the toss in OT. Which has a better percentage? Converting the 2pt conversion or drive 80 yards for the TD?
GB for the season converted 4/6 2pt conversions. Small sample but that's a 66% success rate. That's better compare to a 20% TD rate on 10 total drives for GB for the game.
And think about this angle, GB has plenty of time to get in a good play for the 2 pt conversion because officials had to review Hail Mary. Cards D was still in shock and that's the best time to attack a D.
9
Posted on 1/21/16 at 4:44 pm to PeteRose
Congrats on stealing a thought piece from ESPN and passing it off as your own
Posted on 1/21/16 at 4:45 pm to PeteRose
quote:
If you go to OT, you may have to trust your defense to get the ball back Rodgers.
Unless you win the coin flip
Posted on 1/21/16 at 4:45 pm to wildtigercat93
What?
Posted on 1/21/16 at 4:52 pm to PeteRose
Coaches like McCarthy and Helfrich are beta, be a big swangin dick and go for Two
Posted on 1/21/16 at 4:53 pm to PortCityTiger24
quote:
Unless you win the coin flip
It's gotta flip first though.
Posted on 1/21/16 at 4:54 pm to PeteRose
quote:
Rewatched GB/Zona, here's why GB should've went for 2
You rewatched an entire NFL game that happened less than a week ago?
Jesus Christ dude. Lifes too short for stupid shite like that.
Posted on 1/21/16 at 5:02 pm to PeteRose
Dude, its a really really really simple formula. All that bullshite you wrote is ridiculous.
Chance of converting on 2 is < or > than chance of converting on 1 times chance of winning in OT.
Its roughly 50% for the NFL and Green Bay will probably be higher, even against a good defense.
Chance of converting on 2 is < or > than chance of converting on 1 times chance of winning in OT.
Its roughly 50% for the NFL and Green Bay will probably be higher, even against a good defense.
Posted on 1/21/16 at 5:09 pm to PeteRose
Would you be willing to bet your $1M salary on that? Would you be willing to the scapegoat for the rest of the year? Would you be willing to go against the "culture" of "smart" decision making?
If McCarthy had failed on that conversion, I don't think Packer fans would have forgotten about it even until today. They would want his head.
If McCarthy had failed on that conversion, I don't think Packer fans would have forgotten about it even until today. They would want his head.
Posted on 1/21/16 at 5:42 pm to forksup
Every coach wants to extend the game as long as possible because of so many variables that can go your way in OT...more chances, even if you lose the flip...fumble, INT or just plain common 3 and out.
Going for two - the game resides on one play.
The only reason Peterson went for two against Oklahoma in the first oT is because he said they were tired in the game they couldn't stop Peterson...one hand-off and easy td for OU.
Extending the game then would have played into Oklahoma's hands.
Zona had not showed they couldn't be stopped and Palmer had looked like crap.
Going for two - the game resides on one play.
The only reason Peterson went for two against Oklahoma in the first oT is because he said they were tired in the game they couldn't stop Peterson...one hand-off and easy td for OU.
Extending the game then would have played into Oklahoma's hands.
Zona had not showed they couldn't be stopped and Palmer had looked like crap.
This post was edited on 1/21/16 at 5:46 pm
Posted on 1/21/16 at 5:47 pm to PeteRose
Hey I read fivethirtyeight too!
Posted on 1/21/16 at 6:05 pm to PeteRose
Game over, doesn't matter.
Posted on 1/21/16 at 6:16 pm to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
quote:
Going for two - the game resides on one play.
Precisely why an undermanned team on the road like the Packers should go for two and the win.
The longer the game goes, the more likely the better team is to win.
To steal from another thread on this subject, if you're playing Steph Curry in 1-on-1, you have a much better chance if you're playing to 1 than if you're playing to 11.
Posted on 1/21/16 at 6:23 pm to slackster
Carson Palmer, nor the Cardinals were playing like Steph Curry, even in the game tying drives and going ahead, Palmer almost threw two picks.
Being on the road in that environment doesn't matter. Packers looked like the stronger team, easily marching down the field with no time left.
Being on the road in that environment doesn't matter. Packers looked like the stronger team, easily marching down the field with no time left.
This post was edited on 1/21/16 at 6:25 pm
Posted on 1/21/16 at 6:28 pm to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
quote:This only really make sense if you're the better team. The more a game or series is extended, the more likely the outcome will approximate to its true probability parameters. Considering that AZ was at home, had the superior record, just whooped them a few weeks before, and had that game won, save for not one but two miracle Rodgers plays, AZ was the favorite heading into overtime.
Every coach wants to extend the game as long as possible because
This is why the NCAA tournament has a ton of upsets, but you don't see too many upsets in the NBA.
This post was edited on 1/21/16 at 11:58 pm
Posted on 1/21/16 at 6:38 pm to PortCityTiger24
quote:Even if you win the coin flip you have to go 80 yards when you could of won the game gaining 3 yards
Unless you win the coin flip
Posted on 1/21/16 at 7:05 pm to PeteRose
NFL coaches have no balls. They always go for the conservative approach so they won't have to face the media if it goes wrong.
Go for the tie, but end up losing? Meh. Go for broke and the win, but end up losing? You're immortalized as "that coach" and it can lead some to getting fired way sooner.
Go for the tie, but end up losing? Meh. Go for broke and the win, but end up losing? You're immortalized as "that coach" and it can lead some to getting fired way sooner.
Posted on 1/21/16 at 7:11 pm to buckeye_vol
Must have watched a different game.
I thought the Packers played better for most of the game and had all the momentum going into overtime.
Palmer didn't look good despite his regular season success against the Pack.
It's a game watching decision for the coach, and McCarthy most likely felt his team was the better team that day and had big mo.
I thought the Packers played better for most of the game and had all the momentum going into overtime.
Palmer didn't look good despite his regular season success against the Pack.
It's a game watching decision for the coach, and McCarthy most likely felt his team was the better team that day and had big mo.
Posted on 1/21/16 at 7:20 pm to forksup
quote:
If McCarthy had failed on that conversion, I don't think Packer fans would have forgotten about it even until today. They would want his head.
yeah, but if he makes it, they would suck his head for a long time.
I'm not arguing outcome. I'm just stating that the higher percentage would be to go for 2 if you have a QB like Rodgers.
Posted on 1/21/16 at 7:27 pm to Hester Carries
quote:
You rewatched an entire NFL game that happened less than a week ago?
Jesus Christ dude. Lifes too short for stupid shite like that.
Well, I'm thinking of making a big play on them this week. Is it bad to go back and see their weaknesses?
Sucks to be me to have free time and be dropping a dime in a game.
In my experience, people who talk down to others are unleashing their frustration from the drudgery of their own life.
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