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re: OFFICIAL Week 9 CFB bet thread™
Posted on 10/20/14 at 9:50 am to LSUJuice
Posted on 10/20/14 at 9:50 am to LSUJuice
If 80% of the money comes in on Ole Miss and the line holds tight, there's a 100% chance I'll be on LSU.
GOY lines were LSU -7/7.5 on this one. Deserving of a 10/10.5 point adjustment? Maybe.
GOY lines were LSU -7/7.5 on this one. Deserving of a 10/10.5 point adjustment? Maybe.
3
Posted on 10/20/14 at 9:54 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
If 80% of the money comes in on Ole Miss
I don't see this happening though, a vast majority still look at it as Ole Miss VS powerhouse LSU and the powerhouse is getting the points at home.
Posted on 10/20/14 at 9:54 am to ChemE in the OP
I kinda think the money will begin to even out as the week progresses... The wiseguys might be stubborn and continue to fade OM.
A line to watch for sure... there should be a ton of action on this game since it's the game of the week.
A line to watch for sure... there should be a ton of action on this game since it's the game of the week.
Posted on 10/20/14 at 9:54 am to ChemE in the OP
Honestly I don't know how LSU will score. Sure, maybe a good return and a turnover will get them in good enough field position to get 13 points. But I don't see this offense driving the field or even moving the chains consistently. I think Ole Miss gets into the low 20s and LSU is stuck in the teens.
Posted on 10/20/14 at 9:58 am to LSUJuice
Agreed - I think the under is worth a look - or the LSU team total...
Posted on 10/20/14 at 10:13 am to kkhere
quote:
I know South Carolina isn't a great squad but catching 17.5 at Auburn seems like a bit much, no?
No. Coming off the bye week after a loss, Malzahn will have them ready. Not to mention, a night game in Jordan Hare will give Auburn an added edge.
Posted on 10/20/14 at 10:14 am to HoLeInOnEr05
Sakerlina's D is so bad, I can't back them. The line seems about right.
Auburn could be looking ahead to Ole Miss tho.
Auburn could be looking ahead to Ole Miss tho.
Posted on 10/20/14 at 10:26 am to Billy Mays
Disagree. Auburn cant afford to look ahead right now and I cant see them not knowing that
Posted on 10/20/14 at 10:30 am to blades8088
Yeah they have no room for error... Could be a USCe backdoor spot 
Posted on 10/20/14 at 10:34 am to castorinho
quote:
quote: If 80% of the money comes in on Ole Miss
quote:
I don't see this happening though, a vast majority still look at it as Ole Miss VS powerhouse LSU and the powerhouse is getting the points at home.
I can very much see OM getting 80%. Whos viewing LSU as a powerhouse now? Nobody viewed them as a powerhouse last week only giving 10 to a Kentucky team that hasnt played or beat anybody. LSU vs Ole Miss in Death Valley at night is almost an auto close game where the team coming in high gets upset alot.
Some earlier posts suggested Vegas has undervalued OM. My only question to that is does Vegas know sharps undervalue OM and dont want to set a line to high due to big money fading OM?
Posted on 10/20/14 at 10:37 am to Billy Mays
quote:
Yeah they have no room for error... Could be a USCe backdoor spot
IMO OM has a much better chance looking forward to Aubie
Posted on 10/20/14 at 10:39 am to blades8088
quote:
Some earlier posts suggested Vegas has undervalued OM
They have them as the odds on favorite to win the NC along with Bama, I don't think this point is valid anymore.
Posted on 10/20/14 at 10:43 am to MillerMan
My only question is will Vegas adjust lines due to where they know money will pile on.
Example: Vegas thinks line shoul be OM-24 but since Vegas thinks large money will still pile on UT at +17 they set it at that
Example: Vegas thinks line shoul be OM-24 but since Vegas thinks large money will still pile on UT at +17 they set it at that
Posted on 10/20/14 at 10:47 am to blades8088
quote:
I can very much see OM getting 80%
The "LSU Saturday Night" trend and narrative alone will keep it below 80% IMO.
My prediction after syndicates and pros get involved is 65/35 OM.
Posted on 10/20/14 at 10:48 am to Billy Mays
The Saturday Night Death Valley trend didnt hold true last week
It will be rocking though. Stadium will finally be packed for the first time this year. Not sure how it was last week as I missed it
It will be rocking though. Stadium will finally be packed for the first time this year. Not sure how it was last week as I missed it
This post was edited on 10/20/14 at 10:51 am
Posted on 10/20/14 at 10:51 am to blades8088
The public rush to bet Kentucky last week was very puzzling if you actually looked at the matchup
Posted on 10/20/14 at 10:54 am to Billy Mays
I agree as I was all over LSU. But why would it be different this week with OM being 3
Posted on 10/20/14 at 10:54 am to Billy Mays
Early lines I like
Ohio St. -13
Miss. St. -13
Ohio St. -13
Miss. St. -13
Posted on 10/20/14 at 11:16 am to blades8088
quote:
the team coming in high gets upset alot
Well not exactly. Ole Miss has played LSU close in BR for years, but there isn't much precedent for Ole Miss being favored. They were in 2008 and rolled. Other than that, Ole Miss has played a (sometimes heavily) favored LSU very close.
The only upset in this series in a long time was last year in Oxford (don't remember, but I assume Ole Miss was favored at home in 2009).
Posted on 10/20/14 at 11:18 am to blades8088
quote:
But why would it be different this week with OM being 3
I think it will be similar too, just look at this thread, for example
This post was edited on 10/20/14 at 11:20 am
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