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re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB Betting Thread - dcrews taking us to the promised land
Posted on 10/5/14 at 9:14 pm to ChemE in the OP
Posted on 10/5/14 at 9:14 pm to ChemE in the OP
TCU +10 is easily the worst line of the year, TCU should be pounded on principle alone
TCU is to Baylor as Stanford is to Oregon. Patterson has shut down this offense cold 3 out of the past 4 years. Only reason they scored 41 last year was because of 2 pick sixes and a fumble recovery at the 1 yard line. Patterson has held Baylor to its lowest yardage output in 3 of the past 4 years as well. No reason to believe that can't continue.
For TCU the deep ball was a problem in the 1st half against Oklahoma but adjustments were made and Knight did nothing in the 2nd half. And Petty isn't the run threat Knight was. Baylor doesn't have the run game Oklahoma does therefore TCU can sit back on the deep pass.
I really like TCU in this spot. Not only am I on the +10 I am also pounding the MONEY LINE when it comes out. Patterson really wants this game and word is he has prepared for Baylor since spring, after what happened last year.
Not saying TCU will win but their defense is a matchup problem for Baylor. Only time Baylor has figured it out vs. TCU was the first game of the year in 2011 with RG3 and TCU was breaking in 9 new defensive starters after the Rose Bowl team was gutted by graduation.
TCU is to Baylor as Stanford is to Oregon. Patterson has shut down this offense cold 3 out of the past 4 years. Only reason they scored 41 last year was because of 2 pick sixes and a fumble recovery at the 1 yard line. Patterson has held Baylor to its lowest yardage output in 3 of the past 4 years as well. No reason to believe that can't continue.
For TCU the deep ball was a problem in the 1st half against Oklahoma but adjustments were made and Knight did nothing in the 2nd half. And Petty isn't the run threat Knight was. Baylor doesn't have the run game Oklahoma does therefore TCU can sit back on the deep pass.
I really like TCU in this spot. Not only am I on the +10 I am also pounding the MONEY LINE when it comes out. Patterson really wants this game and word is he has prepared for Baylor since spring, after what happened last year.
Not saying TCU will win but their defense is a matchup problem for Baylor. Only time Baylor has figured it out vs. TCU was the first game of the year in 2011 with RG3 and TCU was breaking in 9 new defensive starters after the Rose Bowl team was gutted by graduation.
6
Posted on 10/5/14 at 9:18 pm to goldennugget
Agree with less aggressive wording...
Posted on 10/5/14 at 9:32 pm to ChemE in the OP
Im really like Wisky-24. If I can get it anywhere under 28 I will be taking. Illinois cant stop the run at all
Posted on 10/5/14 at 9:58 pm to goldennugget
A&M +2/ML
Army PK
UNC +17 (ND coming off emotional win against Stanford and going to get caught looking forward to FSU)
This is where I disagree.
We have rushed the ball 248 times for 1237 yards and 19 TDs this season. That is 18th best (YPG) in the nation including teams that run the triple option. We rushed the ball 60 times for 278 yards against UT.
OU has rushed the ball 193 times for 1043 yards this season with 18 TDs. Oklahoma ranks 36th in rushing YPG this season.
I would call our rushing attacks similar.
Our defense isn't prior year defenses either.
Army PK
UNC +17 (ND coming off emotional win against Stanford and going to get caught looking forward to FSU)
quote:
Baylor doesn't have the run game Oklahoma does therefore TCU can sit back on the deep pass.
This is where I disagree.
We have rushed the ball 248 times for 1237 yards and 19 TDs this season. That is 18th best (YPG) in the nation including teams that run the triple option. We rushed the ball 60 times for 278 yards against UT.
OU has rushed the ball 193 times for 1043 yards this season with 18 TDs. Oklahoma ranks 36th in rushing YPG this season.
I would call our rushing attacks similar.
Our defense isn't prior year defenses either.
Posted on 10/5/14 at 10:00 pm to BeYou
Congrats on your rushing yards vs poverty schools.
Those numbers are almost meaningless
Those numbers are almost meaningless
Posted on 10/5/14 at 10:01 pm to rocket31
quote:
Congrats on your rushing yards vs poverty schools
Posted on 10/5/14 at 10:08 pm to Carson123987
i absolutely love a&m. might put more on that game than i have on any other this year.
thats not really saying alot as i'm just a hobby gambler
thats not really saying alot
as i'm just a hobby gambler
Posted on 10/5/14 at 10:10 pm to Hog Springs
quote:
i absolutely love a&m. might put more on that game than i have on any other this year
Just curious - why? What's so great about Aggy this week? I'm not seeing any huge edge either way in this game...
Posted on 10/5/14 at 10:34 pm to Billy Mays
They're at home for the first in 3 weeks and they're favored over #3 team in the country. This is just a good spot for them and a really bad spot for ole miss.
Sorry man, from an unbiased standpoint this has a&m blowout all over it
Sorry man, from an unbiased standpoint this has a&m blowout all over it
Posted on 10/5/14 at 10:36 pm to goldennugget
quote:
For TCU the deep ball was a problem in the 1st half against Oklahoma but adjustments were made and Knight did nothing in the 2nd half. And Petty isn't the run threat Knight was. Baylor doesn't have the run game Oklahoma does therefore TCU can sit back on the deep pass.
Petty led the Big 12 in rushing TDs last year. Baylor led the conference in rushing. How do they not have the run game OU does? That's silly.
Posted on 10/5/14 at 10:55 pm to JG77056
Would yall try to middle UCF + 8 1/2 and BYU +3? Decent sized gap to risk the juice on hitting both sides
Posted on 10/5/14 at 11:04 pm to Hog Springs
quote:
They're at home for the first in 3 weeks and they're favored over #3 team in the country. This is just a good spot for them and a really bad spot for ole miss.
So playing at home decides it? Interesting...
quote:
Sorry man, from an unbiased standpoint this has a&m blowout all over it
You must have not seen any Ole Miss games this year if you honestly believe this.
Posted on 10/5/14 at 11:12 pm to goldennugget
quote:
goldennugget
Absolutely agree. I'm laying a couple bills on this one.
Posted on 10/5/14 at 11:19 pm to Billy Mays
Playing at home makes a HUGE difference hence yalls win this past weekend. Do you think yall win that game if it was at bama? Not a chance. Also, yall were lucky to win that game Saturday.
This a big trap game for yall and your offense won't be able to keep up with a&m
This a big trap game for yall and your offense won't be able to keep up with a&m
Posted on 10/6/14 at 12:05 am to JG77056
quote:
Petty led the Big 12 in rushing TDs last year. Baylor led the conference in rushing. How do they not have the run game OU does? That's silly.
Led the Big 12 in rushing in 2014, 2013, 2012, 2nd in 2011, and 3rd in 2010. But yea, we don't have a rushing attack.
Now if someone wants to argue whether we run the ball efficiently against TCU, then you have a point. To say Baylor doesn't have a rushing offense like OU is just ignorant.
Posted on 10/6/14 at 12:09 am to BeYou
I think I'm gonna be on Baylor. The defense is stifling so far and Briles at home is Sean Payton esque ATS.
The public is pounding TCU right now - I'll give the books credit for posting an agressive number. They are begging for action on the Frogs.
The public is pounding TCU right now - I'll give the books credit for posting an agressive number. They are begging for action on the Frogs.
Posted on 10/6/14 at 12:26 am to Billy Mays
I think TCU has accomplished more this year. +10 is too high for two great teams that are in state competition.
Posted on 10/6/14 at 12:38 am to BobRoss
I like TCU a lot - they definitely have physical talent to not be overwhelmed by Baylor. Still, I don't know if I trust Boykin vs the stout Baylor defense, and Baylor in Waco is a proven commodity in gambling terms.
This line is a trap. Vegas is begging for TCU tickets, and it seems like they are getting their wish early (80% of the tickets so far) thanks to the double digit eye-catching spread.
It's very rare you can grab Baylor at home and be viewed as a contrarian, but the opportunity is available this week it seems. I expect large professional plays on Baylor as the week progresses.
This line is a trap. Vegas is begging for TCU tickets, and it seems like they are getting their wish early (80% of the tickets so far) thanks to the double digit eye-catching spread.
It's very rare you can grab Baylor at home and be viewed as a contrarian, but the opportunity is available this week it seems. I expect large professional plays on Baylor as the week progresses.
Posted on 10/6/14 at 12:55 am to Billy Mays
With a line like Baylor -10 you would think vegas wants the public to hammer TCU. Do you think the line could move to under 7?
Posted on 10/6/14 at 2:34 am to Billy Mays
Yeah I am not sure this is a good spot to bet on TCU. I wouldn't bet on Baylor -10.5 though, they haven't played anyone yet. Let's see how that line moves
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