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Posted on 10/3/14 at 10:07 am to LSUcdro
Relax... Continually backing TD+ public backed FAVs isn't going to get you very far.
This post was edited on 10/3/14 at 10:33 am
Posted on 10/3/14 at 10:14 am to LSUcdro
I'm guessing you were on the Steelers, Saints and Pats last week too...
Mike Glennon and Alex Smith are terrible!
Mike Glennon and Alex Smith are terrible!
This post was edited on 10/3/14 at 10:15 am
Posted on 10/3/14 at 10:47 am to ChemE in the OP
Herd's Blazing 5.
Falcons @ Giants -4
Bears +2.5 @ Panthers
Bills +7 @ Lions
Jets +6.5 @ Chargers
Seahawks @ Redskins +7
Falcons @ Giants -4
Bears +2.5 @ Panthers
Bills +7 @ Lions
Jets +6.5 @ Chargers
Seahawks @ Redskins +7
Posted on 10/3/14 at 10:51 am to jembeurt
Like all of cowherd's picks except for the Giants. I will be on the Falcons.
Posted on 10/3/14 at 10:55 am to Allthatfades
Leaning Bills and Skins for sure.
Posted on 10/3/14 at 11:26 am to Allthatfades
quote:
Like all of cowherd's picks except for the Giants. I will be on the Falcons.
Same here.
Posted on 10/3/14 at 12:12 pm to DallasTiger45
Did anyone catch the RJ Bell segment about what the wise guys think about Herd's picks?
Posted on 10/3/14 at 12:46 pm to jembeurt
Wiseguys like them all except for the Giants.
Bears in a tease will be $
Bears in a tease will be $
Posted on 10/3/14 at 12:52 pm to Zipfer2022
Have one pending with Pack -3 and Bears +8.5.
Posted on 10/3/14 at 12:54 pm to Zipfer2022
quote:
Bears in a tease will be $
Was thinking of doing the same. Probably the Bears, Bills, and the Skins. I'm leery about the Jets because I took them last week. They barely covered a teaser I had with them but failed miserably on a straight bet.
I still like the Texans for some reason as well. I'll probably won't touch the Saints until I'm at the Dome, drunk, and will bet them right before game time.
Posted on 10/3/14 at 2:18 pm to jembeurt
JMO but you're looking at these the wrong way. From an expected value standpoint you are getting the best of it as you move across key numbers. 3 and 7 are by far the two most important numbers in the NFL. If you're going to tease, you should probably be capturing these numbers.
It's ultimately your money, just giving you my opinion on the matter.
It's ultimately your money, just giving you my opinion on the matter.
Posted on 10/3/14 at 2:33 pm to DallasTiger45
So teasing those three specific teams would not be smart? Wouldn't I be getting past those numbers by teasing them? Or you are saying that I'm already passed those numbers so why tease them?
Posted on 10/3/14 at 3:32 pm to jembeurt
Okay, this is going to be kind of long...but it should get my point across.
Let's say you want to parlay two sides together...Jets +6.5 and Bills +7, for example.
A two team parlay with both sides at -110 pays roughly 2.6 to 1.
A two team teaser at 6 points pays -110 typically. So you are giving up return on investment in exchange for the opportunity to buy points.
Let's say you tease two teams from 7.5 to 13.5. If you bought those points instead, then parlayed them, you'd be getting odds of +105.
However, if you use those teaser points to grab 3 and 7 instead (like Chicago +2.5 to 8.5) you get the best of it because your teaser charges you the same amount to move across non key numbers as it does key numbers, whereas a book would charge 30 cents and 15 cents both ways to move over 3 and 7, respectively.
Cliff notes: Teasers contain an inefficiency where it does not charge you extra to move across the key numbers of 3 and 7. You should probably exploit this inefficiency if you choose to play teasers.
Let's say you want to parlay two sides together...Jets +6.5 and Bills +7, for example.
A two team parlay with both sides at -110 pays roughly 2.6 to 1.
A two team teaser at 6 points pays -110 typically. So you are giving up return on investment in exchange for the opportunity to buy points.
Let's say you tease two teams from 7.5 to 13.5. If you bought those points instead, then parlayed them, you'd be getting odds of +105.
However, if you use those teaser points to grab 3 and 7 instead (like Chicago +2.5 to 8.5) you get the best of it because your teaser charges you the same amount to move across non key numbers as it does key numbers, whereas a book would charge 30 cents and 15 cents both ways to move over 3 and 7, respectively.
Cliff notes: Teasers contain an inefficiency where it does not charge you extra to move across the key numbers of 3 and 7. You should probably exploit this inefficiency if you choose to play teasers.
Posted on 10/3/14 at 3:37 pm to jembeurt
parlay card plays this week:
Atlanta +4 @ New York Giants
Kansas City +6 @ San Francisco
Baltimore +3 @ Indianapolis
Cincinnati -1 @ New England
Chicago +2.5 @ Carolina
took a lot of road dogs this week. Was already feeling good about the Bears earlier in the week but feel even more confident after hearing RJ Bell.
I think the Patriots make a stand at home after getting embarrassed last week. I don't know how they'll do it but I'd hate to bet against Belichick in this spot.
Atlanta +4 @ New York Giants
Kansas City +6 @ San Francisco
Baltimore +3 @ Indianapolis
Cincinnati -1 @ New England
Chicago +2.5 @ Carolina
took a lot of road dogs this week. Was already feeling good about the Bears earlier in the week but feel even more confident after hearing RJ Bell.
I think the Patriots make a stand at home after getting embarrassed last week. I don't know how they'll do it but I'd hate to bet against Belichick in this spot.
Posted on 10/3/14 at 8:10 pm to ChemE in the OP
Adding: 1U CHI BEARS +3 -120
YTD: 4-2 +1.592U
YTD: 4-2 +1.592U
Posted on 10/3/14 at 8:12 pm to LooseCannon22282
quote:
Kansas City +6 @ San Francisco
You don't pull the trigger on this one, if you enjoy winning.
See page 1 of this thread.
Posted on 10/4/14 at 12:32 am to 4LSU2
quote:
You don't pull the trigger on this one, if you enjoy winning.
eh, I see what you mean. Have to turn in the card by 12pm tomorrow.
the 9ers are just 1-5 ATS in their 6 games at home.
something has got to give.
the 9ers are also the most penalized team in the league. They also aren't much of a 2nd half team offensively (scoring wise).
i might not play this week. I don't really feel like piggybacking off of the blazing 5 anymore this week. So by not doing the SF/KC pick, I'm not real sure which other line to go?
will take a look at the O/U's
Posted on 10/4/14 at 1:30 am to LooseCannon22282
quote:
will take a look at the O/U's
Here's a weekly recap of totals to consider when looking at O/U's:
Week 1: 5-16 games went over, or 38%.
Week 2: 7-16 games went over, or 44%.
Week 3: 9-16 games went over, or 56%.
Week 4: 10-13 games went over, or 77%.
Cumulative of all NFL games to date, 31-61 games have gone over, or 51%. I'm keeping a running total of this each week for my use only. I absolutely refuse to bet an under in any capacity. If I don't like the point total, I won't bet it. I'm not saying that is the way to go, but will not watch a game with money on it and root for turnovers, long excruciating drives, and punts. Just by seeing the upward trend of the last two weeks on totals, 66% of the games to over their point totals. This means it took teams the first two weeks to get their identity and for Vegas to also pinpoint who they are.
Just a little food for thought going forward.
Posted on 10/4/14 at 8:19 pm to 4LSU2
Almost Sunday bump.
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