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re: Official Week 4 NFL Bet Thread
Posted on 10/3/15 at 11:25 pm to bloupe2
Posted on 10/3/15 at 11:25 pm to bloupe2
quote:
why yall like tampa?
Home team on the right side of the "3"
Carolina isn't a world beater. They've played some pretty crappy teams. Not excusing Tampa from being crappy, but Carolina hasn't be top notch even against the worst of teams.
1
Posted on 10/3/15 at 11:32 pm to dcrews
true. TB home record is terrible
Posted on 10/3/15 at 11:32 pm to bloupe2
quote:
what you mean carolina tix?
percentage of wagers placed. the vast majority of people are taking carolina, which means the line should be increasing. Since it's staying at 3, either there's some serious sharp money coming in on Tampa, or Vegas is taking a position and hoping for a burial. these types of games are what I look for. sprinkle on a little judgement, and you have a play
with the oregon colorado, for example, OU was getting something like 85% of tickets, and the line dropped from 12.5 to 7.5 over the course of the week. with that percentage of wagers, the line shouldve moved way up, not way down. some big time sharp money coming in on Colorado. that's why I took the Buffs. in this case, it's called reverse line movement, or RLM
money markets and wage distribution are the biggest things I look at with games. I have a buddy that doesnt watch football, and he uses a similar system with great success.
when I have a home team getting points with a small proportion of wagers with little/no line movement or RLM, if I like it from a football perspective, I'm taking it. TB fits right in
my favorite play of the week is washington though
This post was edited on 10/3/15 at 11:34 pm
Posted on 10/3/15 at 11:36 pm to Carson123987
im liking WAS as well. What you think about Cincy -3.5
Posted on 10/3/15 at 11:38 pm to bloupe2
quote:
What you think about Cincy -3.5
lets see what you've learned (I may be a bad teacher)
check this link NFL Betting Trends
scroll down to KC-Cincy and use the info provided to make a pick
Posted on 10/3/15 at 11:43 pm to Carson123987
hahaha you can tell I'm an amateur at this. I just do it for fun with small $. Seems like most money is on cincy with line moving accordingly
Posted on 10/3/15 at 11:45 pm to bloupe2
quote:
Seems like most money is on cincy with line moving accordingly
cincy has 61% of tickets. the line opened at 4.5. it shouldve moved to 5 or so with 61%, but instead it has dropped a whole point. this is RLM. sharp money coming in on chiefs. KC is the play
Posted on 10/4/15 at 12:17 am to Carson123987
Added Chicago +3.5
Posted on 10/4/15 at 2:04 am to dcrews
Skins +3
Bears +3.5
Texans +6
I'm already disappointed in myself for betting on Jay Cutler.
Bears +3.5
Texans +6
I'm already disappointed in myself for betting on Jay Cutler.
Posted on 10/4/15 at 4:52 am to Zipfer2022
Is he even playing?
Posted on 10/4/15 at 6:21 am to JG77056
Supercontest plays week 4:
Atlanta
Oakland
Carolina
Denver
Cincy
9-6 on the year, would be 5 games out at this point.
Atlanta
Oakland
Carolina
Denver
Cincy
9-6 on the year, would be 5 games out at this point.
Posted on 10/4/15 at 8:11 am to JG77056
Jets and Dolphins play in 20 minutes!
Posted on 10/4/15 at 8:15 am to ChemE in the OP
Week 4 Card Update (Adding Bears) ~
Bucs +3.5
Redskins +3.5 (2x Normal Bet)
Bears +3.5
Niners +9
Rams +7
Good luck!
Bucs +3.5
Redskins +3.5 (2x Normal Bet)
Bears +3.5
Niners +9
Rams +7
Good luck!
Posted on 10/4/15 at 8:21 am to ChemE in the OP
If I can get confirmation that Cutler's playing, I'll load up on it
Everyone at work called me a dumbass when I said to take em yesterday
Posted on 10/4/15 at 8:42 am to Carson123987
quote:
cincy has 61% of tickets. the line opened at 4.5. it shouldve moved to 5 or so with 61%, but instead it has dropped a whole point. this is RLM. sharp money coming in on chiefs. KC is the play
What website do you use for this data?
Posted on 10/4/15 at 8:51 am to WhoGeaux
Check the link in my response to bloupe
Posted on 10/4/15 at 9:24 am to Carson123987
bears game offline
Posted on 10/4/15 at 9:26 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
Redskins +3.5 (2x Normal Bet)
2x from Chem? Tailing this mate
Posted on 10/4/15 at 9:31 am to maclauer
Good luck! Hope we cash it!
Posted on 10/4/15 at 9:37 am to maclauer
GMen +6 220 win 200
Best of Luck
Best of Luck
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