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re: OFFICIAL Week 1 College Football Bet Thread
Posted on 8/17/15 at 10:29 pm to oleyeller
Posted on 8/17/15 at 10:29 pm to oleyeller
It sucks you couldn't get it at 5 but I still see value at 3. Honestly this game might be the biggest tossup of Week 1. No one knows what to expect. My model has it as a close game with a slight edge to ASU. It is saying its a neutral game but even if you shade the projection toward A&M because they will have the crowd, ASU still has the edge.
Two teams are evenly matched, its a tossup, take the points.
Full resolution: LINK
Two teams are evenly matched, its a tossup, take the points.
Full resolution: LINK
This post was edited on 8/17/15 at 10:30 pm
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Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:55 am to blades8088
I'm looking at VaTech pretty hard myself, got a few others cooking. My plan on this board this year is to only post my significant positions.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 8:29 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
I'm looking at VaTech pretty hard myself
VT now only +11. Seems like the ship has sailed on this one.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 8:43 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
looking at VaTech pretty hard myself, got a few others cooking. My plan on this board this year is to only post my significant positions.
i enjoy reviewing your picks and analysis each week
Posted on 8/18/15 at 8:58 am to oleyeller
SMU getting 35 at home intrigues me
Posted on 8/18/15 at 9:21 am to PeteRose
quote:
VT now only +11. Seems like the ship has sailed on this one.
My book has +13 right now.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 9:39 am to FulshearTiger
quote:
quote:
VT now only +11. Seems like the ship has sailed on this one.
My book has +13 right now.
my book 10.5
Posted on 8/18/15 at 9:49 am to oleyeller
I like VT in that spot. I'm hoping it climbs a little more. If it gets to 14 I will positively take it. Probably still will at +13
Posted on 8/18/15 at 9:53 am to FulshearTiger
i would at 13
Posted on 8/18/15 at 12:53 pm to accnodefense
Can you offer a little explanation on what everything on your sheets mean (like how to read/use them)?
Posted on 8/18/15 at 1:38 pm to Mac
Anyone like UGA -21 first half at 9am
I can see Chubb rushing for 3 tds himself
35-0 at the half
I can see Chubb rushing for 3 tds himself
35-0 at the half
Posted on 8/18/15 at 5:01 pm to SDVTiger
The more I look at it the more I think Central Michigan +22 is going to be a play for me
I need to look at Louisiana Monroe and what they have coming back. They had a pretty good Run D last year from what I remember, I know they shut down Georgia Southern and Texas A&M's run games.
quote:
nyone like UGA -21 first half at 9am
I can see Chubb rushing for 3 tds himself
35-0 at the half
I need to look at Louisiana Monroe and what they have coming back. They had a pretty good Run D last year from what I remember, I know they shut down Georgia Southern and Texas A&M's run games.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 5:11 pm to Mac
quote:
Can you offer a little explanation on what everything on your sheets mean (like how to read/use them)?
Its pretty complex and I agree it can be confusing. I don't make my bets solely based on my sheets, the #1 rule of having them is knowing when to go against them. My sheets went 11-25 against the spread last year in Week 1 so beware but for the whole season they were 54% against the spread, and was above 52.7% every week the last 8 weeks + bowls.
I use them to compare teams from an unbiased perspective since the stats on my sheets are adjusted for strength of opponent and location. That's where traditional stats fail, stats against Directional State Tech School of the Blind get the same weight as stats against Alabama.
Drive Efficiency - How good the team is at putting points on the board based on starting field position of the drive. For example, a team that starts a drive on the 25 yard line(75 yards from the end zone) is expected to score 1.88 points on the drive. If the team ends up scoring a TD, that's 7 real points MINUS 1.88 expected points = 5.12 points scored over expectation for the drive. This process is done for every offensive/defensive drive. Higher number better for offense, lower number better for defense. This number is adjusted to the strength of the opponent and where the game is played.
Real Turnover Margin - A measure of the impact of turnovers and turnovers forced for a team. It has 4 components: Points Gained, Points Lost, Points Allowed, Points Saved. Points Lost/Allowed is for turnovers, Points Gained/Saved is for turnovers forced. Unlike regular turnover margin, it takes into account where the ball was turned over and how many yards the ball was returned for. Higher number better for offense, lower number better for defense. This number is adjusted to the strength of the opponent and where the game is played.
Field Position +/-: A measure of how many points gained/allowed based on changes in field position. It's another way of measuring starting field position for a team. A positive number on offense means the team has an average starting field position higher than the national average, while a negative defensive number means the team's opponents starts at a yard line lower than the national average. This number is adjusted to the strength of the opponent and where the game is played.
Adjusted Yards Per Play: Basically yards per play adjusted to the strength of the opponent and where the game is played.
Pyth: Hypothetical win % against an average schedule
Posted on 8/18/15 at 7:36 pm to accnodefense
Nice job on the stats effort, I respect the hell out of that kind of digging. I'm a money flow and situational play type but love the work ppl are putting in. Let's get a paycheck from the books this year...
Posted on 8/18/15 at 7:50 pm to oleyeller
I don't know what the spread is, but I wouldn't be surprised if Arkansas State covered against USC.
Veteran ASU team with legit skill players. Lines is where they will wear down.
Veteran ASU team with legit skill players. Lines is where they will wear down.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 12:03 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
Anyone like UGA -21 first half at 9am
I can see Chubb rushing for 3 tds himself
35-0 at the half
I studied this game last night... ULM returns a good portion of their defense last year that was actually pretty good, especially against the run. ULM's problem is offense - their offense was shite last year, and they are losing their QB. I would not be surprised if Georgia can shut them out.
With that being said, with ULM's run defense and Georgia also breaking in a new QB and want to keep the ball on the ground, I see this game being one where the clock is running continously and there not being a lot of possessions. ULM will try their best to shorten the game. I just don't see how they will score.
I think Georgia -35.5 is a bad bet, because if they turn the ball over or give ULM a short field they can score. I think if ULM scores more than 7 they cover. This game will be too short and ULM's defense is good enough to keep Georgia under 42 for the game and there is always the chance for a backdoor cover.
-21 for the first half is a better bet, but not a sure thing. Even with ULM's above average defense, it will be asking a lot to hold Georgia under that number. I expect both teams to have 6 possessions in the 1st half, and Georgia will need to score touchdowns on 3 of them with a field goal as well to cover the -21 first half line. If ULM scores at all in the 1st half, they will cover.
There are better bets on the board for Week 1.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 12:21 pm to accnodefense
Thanks
Im going hard on UGA 1st half
Im going hard on UGA 1st half
Posted on 8/19/15 at 12:31 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
Im going hard on UGA 1st half
Yes - If you are going to play Georgia, first half is the best way to go. 35.5 is just too much in a game where possessions will be at a premium with 2 good run defenses, especially if Georgia gets up 38-0 or so and pulls all their starters and ULM scores a TD for the backdoor cover.
BTW here is my sheet for this game for reference.
Full Resolution: LINK
This post was edited on 8/19/15 at 12:32 pm
Posted on 8/19/15 at 12:33 pm to accnodefense
Thanks. Im predicting the same as you
35 is to much to sweat out
Posted on 8/19/15 at 12:40 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
Thanks.
Im predicting the same as you 35 is to much to sweat out
I am actually considering playing ULM +35.5 simply because both teams will keep the ball on the ground and Georgia will take their foot off the gas early with Vanderbilt and South Carolina coming in the next 2 weeks. They will keep it vanilla as hell.
Also Richt is not reliable when it came to covering in season openers against bad teams. 2012 in particular against a shitty Buffalo team they were only up by a TD at half and needed all 4 quarters to put them away and that Georgia team IMO was better than this year's. Or that 2008 team that started #1 yet didn't cover against FCS Georga Southern.
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