re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 6

Who is offering those lines?

quote:

---

i have been on fire so far this year doing teasers..
i pretty much tease every year with success but this year has been

Pending 10/5/13 3:30pm College Football 347 Georgia -4½ * vs Tennessee U
Pending 10/6/13 4:25pm NFL Football 433 Denver Broncos -2½ * vs Dallas Cowboys

Pending 10/6/13 4:25pm NFL Football 433 Denver Broncos -2½ * vs Dallas Cowboys
Pending 10/7/13 8:40pm NFL Football 438 Atlanta Falcons -4 * vs New York Jets

2 Team Parlay
Win 9/30/13 8:40pm NFL Football 226 New Orleans Saints -6½ -125* vs Miami Dolphins
Pending 10/5/13 7:00pm College Football 351 LSU -9½ -110* vs Mississippi State

Pending 10/5/13 7:00pm College Football 351 LSU -3½ * vs Mississippi State
Pending 10/6/13 4:25pm NFL Football 433 Denver Broncos -1½ * vs Dallas Cowboys

---

You aren't good at math.

Why teasing down small favorites is a bad idea:
A team favored by 6 points will usually have a ML of about -240. And, historically, a 66.7% chance of winning the game.

Chances of both favorites winning: 44%
Chances of both favorites losing: 11%
Chances of one fav winning one fav losing; 45%
Let’s compare doing a teaser play vs. taking both teams on the ML vs. doing an ML Parlay In both examples below we’re risking $480

First Option: The Teaser
If you do the teaser, two scenarios: Win $436, lose $480.

436* .44 – 480*.56 = -76.8

Second Option: Take Both Games on the ML
If you take both on the ML, you’ve got three scenarios:
Both win: you win $200
Both lose: you lose 480
they split: you lose 140

200*.44 – .11*480 – 140*.55 = -41.8

So taking both on the ML is the better play.

Third Option: Doing an ML Parlay With the Two Games
Third option, and ML parlay. All things same as above. Risky 480 on an ML parlay would payout 483

483*.44 -480*.56 = -56.3

So while not as good an option mathematically as just taking both teams individually on the ML, it strikes a balance between that and not putting as much in play if you don’t want to

quote:

---

You aren't good at math.

---

good enough to count all the money i have been cashing year in and year out..

quote:

---

Who is offering those lines?

---

SportsBook is offering them.

That's too many numbers to give a shite

quote:

---

A historical winning percentage does not have bearing on an individual independent game. That's why you need to cap the game and make your own bet.

Unless you bet every favorite in that range, you will have too small of a sample size to rely on the historical wining percentage.

---

Nobody is relying on a historical winning percentage for purposes of making a bet.

But for purposes of comparing two bets it works because we're comparing the same games. Does that make sense?

I see Stanford scoring more than that honestly. Wash will get a couple scores.


Stanford has been rolling on Offense

I locked in UCLA at -180

quote:

---

You going to lay the points on that or just the ML?

---

Just the ML