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re: NFL Week 5 Betting Thread

Posted on 10/7/12 at 6:15 pm to
Posted by aVatiger
Water
Member since Jan 2006
27967 posts
Posted on 10/7/12 at 6:15 pm to
wasn't it Chris Green? Something like that.. it's super legit
Posted by LSUAlum2001
Stavro Mueller Beta
Member since Aug 2003
47121 posts
Posted on 10/7/12 at 6:20 pm to
quote:

NFL Week 5 Betting Thread
wasn't it Chris Green? Something like that.. it's super legit


Yes..

That is his updated spreadsheet thru 4 weeks.
Posted by LSUAlum2001
Stavro Mueller Beta
Member since Aug 2003
47121 posts
Posted on 10/7/12 at 6:22 pm to
quote:

So we need to update it ourself with the numbers or can we get them somewhere. Thanks for the sheet!


I wouldn't update it too much.

It's probably ok for a few weeks. If there is a major injury to a key player (any position) that is when it should be updated.
This post was edited on 10/7/12 at 6:22 pm
Posted by bamafan425
Jackson's Hole
Member since Jan 2009
25607 posts
Posted on 10/7/12 at 6:25 pm to
5-4 on the day I think.
Posted by Zipfer2022
Member since Nov 2011
3736 posts
Posted on 10/7/12 at 6:26 pm to
McGahee can eat a bag of dicks. Would have been the sickest of backdoor covers.
This post was edited on 10/7/12 at 6:27 pm
Posted by LSUAlum2001
Stavro Mueller Beta
Member since Aug 2003
47121 posts
Posted on 10/7/12 at 6:31 pm to
9-1 with NE -6.5 covering.

My own spreadsheet plays were 4-1.

Blacklisted spreadsheet is undefeated today with both small play/leans and bet heavy plays are 2-0.

Houston is a bet heavy play tomorrow night and San Diego is a small play/lean.
Posted by bamafan425
Jackson's Hole
Member since Jan 2009
25607 posts
Posted on 10/7/12 at 6:37 pm to
It just pick sides or totals too?
Posted by Hogkiller10
LP
Member since Jan 2010
1529 posts
Posted on 10/7/12 at 6:39 pm to
Just curious but how does that sheet help figure out if they cover or dont cover the spread? Great indepth numbers but how do you know if spreads will cover (is it by applying the overall total number?)
Posted by TexasTiger1185
New Orleans
Member since Sep 2011
13070 posts
Posted on 10/7/12 at 6:40 pm to
thinking of going heavy on over tonight
Posted by tigerbaittrick
Member since Jan 2010
7265 posts
Posted on 10/7/12 at 6:40 pm to
Thinking the same.
Posted by LSUAlum2001
Stavro Mueller Beta
Member since Aug 2003
47121 posts
Posted on 10/7/12 at 6:51 pm to
quote:

It just pick sides or totals too?



Mostly trust the sides.

He bases total plays on scoring offense home/away and scoring defense home/away.

As for sides:

Compare Team Total Ratings between opponents. If one is a 3:1 ratio over their opponent (Chicago V Jax, Minnesota v. Tennessee and Houston v. NYJets) it's a large play. If the difference between the team rating totals is 3-6 points or greater off the spread, it becomes a small play/lean.

Don't forget to add 1 point for a team total rating when they are the home team.

Here is the site if you guys are interested in paying for the updates:

[link=(www.nfl-blacklisted-spreadhseet.com)]LINK[/link]
This post was edited on 10/7/12 at 6:55 pm
Posted by Hogkiller10
LP
Member since Jan 2010
1529 posts
Posted on 10/7/12 at 6:57 pm to
quote:

Mostly trust the sides.


Where do you apply the spread? Even if there is a 5:1 ratio but the spread is 30, is that still a good play? Im just trying to figure out where to put the spread
Posted by TexasTiger1185
New Orleans
Member since Sep 2011
13070 posts
Posted on 10/7/12 at 7:09 pm to
Alright, I hit it hard. 3* on the OVER 53.5 tonight
Posted by CP3LSU25
Louisiana
Member since Feb 2009
51150 posts
Posted on 10/7/12 at 7:09 pm to
over on the Saints tonight?
Posted by TexasTiger1185
New Orleans
Member since Sep 2011
13070 posts
Posted on 10/7/12 at 7:11 pm to
quote:

ver on the Saints tonight?


yep
Posted by LSUAlum2001
Stavro Mueller Beta
Member since Aug 2003
47121 posts
Posted on 10/7/12 at 7:20 pm to
quote:

Even if there is a 5:1 ratio but the spread is 30, i


No idea on a spread that high.
Posted by bamafan425
Jackson's Hole
Member since Jan 2009
25607 posts
Posted on 10/7/12 at 7:22 pm to
Added OVER 53 and Chargers ML.

Gonna be looking for some in-game plays, try and grab NO ML if Chargers jump out first.
Posted by TexasTiger1185
New Orleans
Member since Sep 2011
13070 posts
Posted on 10/7/12 at 7:24 pm to
Is Al Michaels wearing a leather blazer or is that just the lighting making it look that way?
Posted by ChemE in the OP
The Flats
Member since Apr 2011
6382 posts
Posted on 10/7/12 at 8:46 pm to
Saints just not capitalizing this year. Still like them to cover tonight.
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16834 posts
Posted on 10/7/12 at 8:53 pm to
Thanks for that jinx.
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