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Message
re: Mike and Mike posed an interesting question
Posted on 3/11/15 at 11:09 pm to SwaggerCopter
Posted on 3/11/15 at 11:09 pm to SwaggerCopter
quote:
Bosh is money. 10/20 is possible from him.
Maybe the heat should just run the offense through that shot? 50% behind the arc and your players only have to play half court.
1
Posted on 3/11/15 at 11:32 pm to OceanMan
Idc how crazy some people think this sounds, I'd hit 1 of 20 85% of the time. 1-10 would be a better scenario. Think I'd turn that down. 1-20....sign me up.
Posted on 3/11/15 at 11:55 pm to WarhawkRebel
Nope. Sucker bet.
Posted on 3/12/15 at 7:38 am to OceanMan
quote:
I would think that is pretty accurate
That assumes you have a 2.5% chance of making one shot. I think that is a bit high, especially considering the pressure of the situation.
People are treating the statistics of this as if each shot is dependent on the last shot, but it isn't. If you flip heads 9 straight times, the chance of heads on the 10th flip is still 50/50. If you miss the first 15 shots, your chances of making one in the last 5 certainly do not go UP.
Posted on 3/12/15 at 7:40 am to ReauxlTide222
quote:
I'd hit 1 of 20 85% of the time
This isn't your local gym with three people standing around. It cannot be stressed enough - if you miss the first 5-10, you're going to have hell making any of the remaining shots. The pressure would mount with each miss.
I don't doubt that you would attempt the challenge, I just think 85% is preposterous.
Posted on 3/12/15 at 8:15 am to slackster
quote:
That assumes you have a 2.5% chance of making one shot. I think that is a bit high, especially considering the pressure of the situation.
I think it means you have a 2.5% chance to make 1/20, which I would say incorporates the other varaibles, as the amount of shots is known. Or said differently, you will achieve the goal for every 2 times you accept; you have a 50% chance of achieving the goal vs going to jail.
I dont think that is high by any means, and illustrates that this is an even wager.
And yes, each shot IS dependent on the last, this isnt a coin flip. The average guy that walks out to do this will likely be pretty tired by shot 20. The expected result is driven by historical performance, rather than available outcomes...free throw shooters, for instance, achieve their overall FT% from all of their shots, but you will certainly see variations in their splits (ie their percentage after a make/miss on first attempt). This just shows that expected results are dependent on external circumstances.
Posted on 3/12/15 at 10:28 am to OceanMan
quote:I'm not really sure what you are saying.
I think it means you have a 2.5% chance to make 1/20, which I would say incorporates the other varaibles, as the amount of shots is known. Or said differently, you will achieve the goal for every 2 times you accept; you have a 50% chance of achieving the goal vs going to jail.
If we assume you have a 2.5% chance to make a single shot, and that is consistent (obviously pressure would change things), you would expect to make at least one shot about 40% of the time.
Basically it is 1 - (the probability you won't make a single shot) or 1 - (.975^20) = .397.
Posted on 3/12/15 at 10:31 am to OceanMan
quote:If I recall, studies have shown this dependency is minimal, if not relatively non-existent.
for instance, achieve their overall FT% from all of their shots, but you will certainly see variations in their splits (ie their percentage after a make/miss on first attempt).
Posted on 3/12/15 at 10:40 am to OceanMan
quote:
And yes, each shot IS dependent on the last, this isnt a coin flip. The average guy that walks out to do this will likely be pretty tired by shot 20
That illustrates my point. If anything, the likelihood of you making it on your 20th attempt is much worse than the likelihood of you making it on your 1st attempt. However, people are acting like they're guaranteed a make if they get enough shots.
It is the same misconception for the people that walk up and drop $500 on black in roulette after 9 straight red numbers. Surely the chances of it being red 10 times in a row are miniscule, ~.1%, but that doesn't mean shite for the 10th spin.
Posted on 3/12/15 at 10:45 am to slackster
quote:Although there is surely a dependency (especially because of the increasing pressure and fatigue ), generally speaking, the probability of making the first shot would be close to the probability of making the last shot. So unless you can quantity the dependency and the direction, it would probably be best to treat each as an independent random event with the same probability (e.g., roulette, coin flip, rolling dice). Then as I show above, in this case, you want to find the probability of making at least one shot.
That illustrates my point. If anything, the likelihood of you making it on your 20th attempt is much worse than the likelihood of you making it on your 1st attempt. However, people are acting like they're guaranteed a make if they get enough shots.
It is the same misconception for the people that walk up and drop $500 on black in roulette after 9 straight red numbers. Surely the chances of it being red 10 times in a row are miniscule, ~.1%, but that doesn't mean shite for the 10th spin.
This post was edited on 3/12/15 at 10:47 am
Posted on 3/12/15 at 10:59 am to WarhawkRebel
When I was just graduating college and playing ball 3-4 times a week, yes.
Now as a 30-something with a family I probably wouldn't try it, even though with a few weeks practice I could probably easily do it. Just not worth the risk now, I was a pretty clutch athlete in my younger days, but losing a game or a race just meant I let myself and my teammates down, not going to prison for 2 years. Pressure is MF......
Now as a 30-something with a family I probably wouldn't try it, even though with a few weeks practice I could probably easily do it. Just not worth the risk now, I was a pretty clutch athlete in my younger days, but losing a game or a race just meant I let myself and my teammates down, not going to prison for 2 years. Pressure is MF......
Posted on 3/12/15 at 11:38 am to buckeye_vol
I actually believe there's a better chance of making each shot as you go along because you can adjust based on your last shot. If it was 20 random shots from half court, I may not do it. Shooting 20 in a row, where you can get in a rhythm makes it much easier.
Posted on 3/12/15 at 1:11 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
I'm not really sure what you are saying.
If we assume you have a 2.5% chance to make a single shot, and that is consistent (obviously pressure would change things), you would expect to make at least one shot about 40% of the time.
Basically it is 1 - (the probability you won't make a single shot) or 1 - (.975^20) = .397.
No, thats not what I am saying.
He said that you would have a 2.5% per shot, and I was calrifying that that expectation is only relevant for a range of 20. In other words, the fact that you are limited in your shots is factored into the expectation. Not, that you shoot any number of shots, and expect to make them at a rate of 2.5% each attempt.
You would expect to make at least 1 shot about 50% of the time, which is the scenario I agreed with, which would also make it an even bargain that you are either rich or going to jail.
The 2.5% each attempt is not the assumption, it was backed into.
Posted on 3/12/15 at 1:20 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
If I recall, studies have shown this dependency is minimal, if not relatively non-existent.
Well, on average, no, of course it would approach the mean, but for individual players, you can see a difference.
I dont think you are recalling correctly either.
Posted on 3/12/15 at 1:21 pm to WarhawkRebel
I'd do it. I miss I'll just give em a Get Out of Jail free card from a Monopoly game. The pure hilarity of the situation would cause them to accept.
That's irrelevant though, I'm sure I'd make at least one shot in twenty tries.
That's irrelevant though, I'm sure I'd make at least one shot in twenty tries.
Posted on 3/12/15 at 1:28 pm to slackster
quote:
That illustrates my point. If anything, the likelihood of you making it on your 20th attempt is much worse than the likelihood of you making it on your 1st attempt. However, people are acting like they're guaranteed a make if they get enough shots.
It is the same misconception for the people that walk up and drop $500 on black in roulette after 9 straight red numbers. Surely the chances of it being red 10 times in a row are miniscule, ~.1%, but that doesn't mean shite for the 10th spin.
quote:
People are treating the statistics of this as if each shot is dependent on the last shot, but it isn't. If you flip heads 9 straight times, the chance of heads on the 10th flip is still 50/50. If you miss the first 15 shots, your chances of making one in the last 5 certainly do not go UP.
It reads as if you are on both sides of the fence here. Either the probability changes or it doesn't. Saying chances can only decrease is the same fallacy as thinking any shot is dependent on another. And just to be clear, I think it does.
I would say shots 6-10 will be your best bet as you have found the range and are not warn out or stressed.
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