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How sound is this college football pick 'em strategy?
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:24 pm
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:24 pm
So it's week 1, and we have no clue how teams are going to do. I'm in a year long pick 'em. For this week, I'm thinking about picking the worst team against the spread last year in each game, assuming that bettors aren't high on them, and the oddsmakers know that. Is this a terrible strategy?
So for instance:
UCLA beat the spread 38.5% of the time last year, while Virginia beat the spread 63.6% of the time. So I'm going to pick UCLA against the spread, assuming that they will bounce back in the right direction. What does the MSB think?
So for instance:
UCLA beat the spread 38.5% of the time last year, while Virginia beat the spread 63.6% of the time. So I'm going to pick UCLA against the spread, assuming that they will bounce back in the right direction. What does the MSB think?
8
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:26 pm to SwaggerCopter
I think that you may have thought about this too much.
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:27 pm to High C
quote:
I think that you may have thought about this too much.
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:32 pm to SwaggerCopter
Go to the MSB official NCAA bet thread. Bet opposite of the most talked about plays. Also bet on what Chem in the OP says. Profit
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:37 pm to the_watcher
quote:
Go to the MSB official NCAA bet thread. Bet opposite of the most talked about plays. Also bet on what Chem in the OP says. Profit
This probably would play well.
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:38 pm to SwaggerCopter
If the roulette ball lands on red 6 times in a row, would you bet it all on black on the 7th roll? I mean, it has to hit black this time, right?
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:39 pm to SwaggerCopter
Sounds like a solid strategy. Another one I hear a lot about is flipping a coin. Usually one team will be designated heads and the other tails.
To use your example, you may designate UCLA heads or Virginia tails. You would then toss the coin a moderate height in the air and depending on which side it lands on, you would pick that team against the spread. In our theoretical example, the coin landed on heads. Thus, you would choose UCLA in your college football pick'em.
This could be a little bit complicated, so a few trial runs are advised.
To use your example, you may designate UCLA heads or Virginia tails. You would then toss the coin a moderate height in the air and depending on which side it lands on, you would pick that team against the spread. In our theoretical example, the coin landed on heads. Thus, you would choose UCLA in your college football pick'em.
This could be a little bit complicated, so a few trial runs are advised.
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:40 pm to the_watcher
quote:
Go to the MSB official NCAA bet thread. Bet opposite of the most talked about plays. Also bet on what Chem in the OP says. Profit
well if you do that, i wouldnt go opposite of the ones of us that were regulars last year. Because we won some money
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:51 pm to oleyeller
Of course you did. Everyone wins so much yet I've never met a broke bookie or heard of a vegas sportsbook losing money. I know this - if you bet opposite of lets say the top 3 consensus picks each week from that thread last year you would have also made money.
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:59 pm to SwaggerCopter
quote:
What does the MSB think?
Over the long haul this is correct thinking, not in a one shot instance.
Example. Coin flip lands heads 20 times in a row, the odds of it landing on the 21st flip tails is still 50%.
Posted on 9/2/15 at 2:01 pm to the_watcher
quote:
Of course you did. Everyone wins so much yet I've never met a broke bookie or heard of a vegas sportsbook losing money. I know this - if you bet opposite of lets say the top 3 consensus picks each week from that thread last year you would have also made money.
i absolutely did.. like i said, for the regular 4-5 in the weekly thread from last year i guarantee you we were all in the postitive. Im not speaking for everyone in those threads, and not saying we won every bet, but we did win a high enough % to profit.
Posted on 9/2/15 at 2:08 pm to SwaggerCopter
I think you are making the bad assumption that teams are the same teams from one year to the next.
Posted on 9/2/15 at 2:19 pm to SwaggerCopter
I would pick UCLA against Virginia because UCLA's mascot is a freakin' bear, and Virginia's is a rather, uh, flamboyant dandy. Why is this even a question?
Posted on 9/2/15 at 3:17 pm to the_watcher
quote:
Bet opposite of the most talked about plays
It's called "fading the public." SVP does it all the time.
Posted on 9/2/15 at 3:48 pm to Choupique19
Yeah I do that shite all the time and it works
Wait until like 6 reds and then start with the minimum on black. If you lose double your bet till it hits black. Profit
Or you'll have to take out a second mortgage
Wait until like 6 reds and then start with the minimum on black. If you lose double your bet till it hits black. Profit
Or you'll have to take out a second mortgage
Posted on 9/2/15 at 4:19 pm to oleyeller
oleyeller, curious if you handicap on your own or how you go about evaluating games. I have a guy and have always picked a few games each week, but never anything super analytical. Wouldn't mind learning more about handicapping.
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