- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Help me with this bet
Posted on 9/14/23 at 6:48 pm to BallSoHard
Posted on 9/14/23 at 6:48 pm to BallSoHard
I think it is essentially offering to pay me for the LSU win…. But that’s it. It has gotten as high as $345
0
Posted on 9/14/23 at 7:05 pm to AZTiger7072
The real answer is you hedge each round of the playoffs by taking the teams the brewers are against in a series bet.
Posted on 9/14/23 at 7:22 pm to AZTiger7072
If the Brewers win there first playoff series you will get offered more than $300. I would wait to see what they do hell its only $50 that you would lose let it ride for now
Posted on 9/14/23 at 7:47 pm to AZTiger7072
Take the 300 and go bet 50 on brewers to win. You profit either way. But they not winning any way.
Posted on 9/14/23 at 7:50 pm to AZTiger7072
I would let it ride for a bit, it should go up.
Posted on 9/14/23 at 7:51 pm to AZTiger7072
I don’t know shite about betting. But I’d say it’s only $50. Would you be more upset if you lost $50 or $10,500? I know people are saying that they’re not winning but what if they do? That $300 will be gone by the weekend.
Posted on 9/14/23 at 7:55 pm to AZTiger7072
ok you can definitely make way more than $300 on this bet, so anyone saying cash out now is just really dumb.
im not gonna do all the math and it will obviously depend on the odds, but your play is just to bet against the brewers in their playoff series as your hedge. if you wanted to get a little ballsy and try to make more money, you could wait until the NLDS to start it and just bank on them winning that first round as the likely 3 seed.
either way, it's a pretty simple hedge and will net you much more than $300, but obviously much less than 10k
you're gonna lose a little on the juice as you will be betting on the favorite in the NLDS, NLCS, and WS if they make it to those rounds.
but you should be able to get about $1k+ guaranteed.
im not gonna do all the math and it will obviously depend on the odds, but your play is just to bet against the brewers in their playoff series as your hedge. if you wanted to get a little ballsy and try to make more money, you could wait until the NLDS to start it and just bank on them winning that first round as the likely 3 seed.
either way, it's a pretty simple hedge and will net you much more than $300, but obviously much less than 10k
you're gonna lose a little on the juice as you will be betting on the favorite in the NLDS, NLCS, and WS if they make it to those rounds.
but you should be able to get about $1k+ guaranteed.
This post was edited on 9/14/23 at 7:58 pm
Posted on 9/14/23 at 9:33 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
Break it down for me…. Assuming
Arizona vs Brewers
Brewers vs Dodgers
Brewers vs Braves
I assume betting $1000 on AZ and if they lose I’m down 1k but still have the Brewers bet.
So now I bet $3k on dodgers…. And if they lose I’m down $4k but still have brewers bet.
Then bet 5k on braves… and if I lose I’m down 9k but still have brewera bet?
Arizona vs Brewers
Brewers vs Dodgers
Brewers vs Braves
I assume betting $1000 on AZ and if they lose I’m down 1k but still have the Brewers bet.
So now I bet $3k on dodgers…. And if they lose I’m down $4k but still have brewers bet.
Then bet 5k on braves… and if I lose I’m down 9k but still have brewera bet?
Posted on 9/14/23 at 9:46 pm to Double Oh
quote:
If the Brewers win there first playoff series you will get offered more than $300.
I’m seriously doubt that.
They aren’t offering more unless they get ahead in the series to get to the World Series. There are too many teams that have much better odds to win it than them.
Posted on 9/15/23 at 3:27 am to AZTiger7072
quote:
Break it down for me…. Assuming Arizona vs Brewers Brewers vs Dodgers Brewers vs Braves I assume betting $1000 on AZ and if they lose I’m down 1k but still have the Brewers bet. So now I bet $3k on dodgers…. And if they lose I’m down $4k but still have brewers bet. Then bet 5k on braves… and if I lose I’m down 9k but still have brewera bet?
Your proposal doesn’t account for the fact the Brewers have to win the World Series. (Based on your op).
You’d enter the World Series $9000 down, with a potential to win $10,800 on the Brewers for a net $1800. If the Brewers lose the World Series you’d be down $9050.
If did Brewers vs….
Arizona $600 ($300 > just cashing out now=$600) or brewers Alive
LA $1300 ($$400> just cashing out = $700) or Brewers Alive
ATL $2700 ($500 > just cashing out now = $800) or Brewers Alive
AL $5500 ($600 > just cashing out now = $900) or Brewers win $10,800 - 10,100, which is $700 (or $400 > just cashing out now)
BUT - that’s assuming you could get even money bets on all those other teams, where you probably can’t on the Dodgers and Braves….
So just my .02…either let the whole thing ride to win the big prize….OR cash in now for the $300, take $100 profit and bet $200 to win WS at 24-1
Posted on 9/15/23 at 6:42 am to SpanishFortTiger
quote:
Burns
quote:
elite
Yeah, 3 years ago
He’a an average pitcher now
Posted on 9/15/23 at 6:51 am to AZTiger7072
I’d let it ride dude, it’s baseball and underdogs get hot in the postseason.
Also your current buyout offer sucks. LSU was 5/1 to 8/1 pretty much all year yet they are only offering you $300 with that win PLUS your current equity in the Brewers bet?
If you need the $300 to make rent, sure, take the payout. But I’d let it ride otherwise
Also your current buyout offer sucks. LSU was 5/1 to 8/1 pretty much all year yet they are only offering you $300 with that win PLUS your current equity in the Brewers bet?
If you need the $300 to make rent, sure, take the payout. But I’d let it ride otherwise
Posted on 9/15/23 at 7:14 am to AZTiger7072
quote:
Arizona vs Brewers Brewers vs Dodgers Brewers vs Braves I assume betting $1000 on AZ and if they lose I’m down 1k but still have the Brewers bet. So now I bet $3k on dodgers…. And if they lose I’m down $4k but still have brewers bet. Then bet 5k on braves… and if I lose I’m down 9k but still have brewera bet?
Going to be very difficult to hedge this round by round.
Here is how it breaks down
Pre WC Round
Total Bet: $50
Total Potential Win: $10,800
WC Round
$1,000 Hedge vs. Dbacks (projected +125 odds vs. MIL)
Remaining Potential Win w/ WS Win: $9,800
Total Profit w/ Dbacks series win: $1,200
NLDS
$3,000 Hedge vs. Dodgers (projected -180 odds vs. MIL)
Remaining Potential Win w/ WS win: $6,800
Total Profit w/ Dodgers series win: $616
NLCS
$5,000 Hedge vs. Braves (projected -200 odds vs. Brewers)
Remaining Potential Win w/ WS Win: $1,800
Total Profit w/ Braves series win: -$1,550
You are losing cash in this scenario if they lose to the Braves in the NLCS and you are also extremely exposed entering the WS. You would essentially have somewhere around a -475 ticket on the Brewers ($9,000 bet to win $1,800) in the WS when they will likely be underdogs to Houston, Tampa or Baltimore in that round too.
Cash it now (or after they clinch the central) if you are concerned about locking in profit and put $50 or $100 on them to win the WS.
Your other option is letting it ride. I don’t think you are going to get to a profitable hedging opportunity unless they get a series lead in the NLCS or possibly after the Dodgers series if the Braves are upset by somebody other than the Phillies in the other NLDS.
This post was edited on 9/15/23 at 7:18 am
Posted on 9/15/23 at 7:26 am to AZTiger7072
when/if the brew crew goes down by one game in the playoffs, check the buyout no matter how early.
Posted on 9/15/23 at 7:32 am to AZTiger7072
Where did you place this cause I want in on that type of sceanrio
This post was edited on 9/15/23 at 7:34 am
Posted on 9/15/23 at 8:43 am to JimTiger72
quote:
^I’d ignore the very biased opinion of a Braves fan
Biased or not, do you really think the Brewers can beat the Braves or Dodgers in a playoff series…highly unlikely
Page 2 of 2
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News