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FiveThirtyEight: Cardinals have been luckiest MLB team since 1998 Expansion
Posted on 9/15/16 at 1:29 pm
Posted on 9/15/16 at 1:29 pm
quote:
For each franchise, going back to 1998, I used the above formula to calculate the yearly probability that it would make the playoffs based on how many games it won. Then I summed up the probabilities to measure how many playoff appearances a given team should have collected over that span, compared to how many appearances it actually made.
The St. Louis Cardinals have been baseball’s luckiest team in terms of gaining extra postseason berths. And no season better exemplifies this than 2006, which saw the Cards win the World Series despite posting a mere 83 wins and +19 run differential. Given that resume, they would have been predicted to have only a 1-in-40 chance of making the playoffs. But even disregarding that 2006 team, every single one of the 11 St. Louis squads with more than a 50 percent postseason probability in my model went on to make the playoffs, including five times when the Cardinals’ chances were under 90 percent. And that’s on top of repeatedly harnessing improbable streaks of luck to achieve those records in the first place.
LINK
This post was edited on 9/15/16 at 1:33 pm
6
Posted on 9/15/16 at 1:33 pm to Bench McElroy
Cardinals, Cubs, and Astros were all in the same division and they are the top 3 luckiest teams.
Surely there has to be some connection there, right?
Surely there has to be some connection there, right?
Posted on 9/15/16 at 1:33 pm to Bench McElroy
frick the Cardinals and their fans.
Posted on 9/15/16 at 1:35 pm to reddman
Beat Luck In Baseball
Posted on 9/15/16 at 1:41 pm to reddman
quote:
frick the Cardinals and their fans.
True
Posted on 9/15/16 at 1:42 pm to Bench McElroy
Now let's compare the minor league systems for the Cards, Cubs, and Astros to the Mariners and see if it's really luck, or if the Mariners just don't know what the frick they're doing.
162 game season is a war of attrition. Being able to get good contributions from the AAA call ups each season to supplement the opening day 25 can mean a few extra wins here and there. Maybe that has more to do with making the playoffs than sheer luck.
I'm all about advanced metrics, but saying one of the more poorly run franchises over the last decade is simply unlucky is absurd.
162 game season is a war of attrition. Being able to get good contributions from the AAA call ups each season to supplement the opening day 25 can mean a few extra wins here and there. Maybe that has more to do with making the playoffs than sheer luck.
I'm all about advanced metrics, but saying one of the more poorly run franchises over the last decade is simply unlucky is absurd.
Posted on 9/15/16 at 3:07 pm to reddman
quote:
frick the Cardinals and their fans.
I upvoted, but only because it's you.
Posted on 9/15/16 at 3:09 pm to reddman
Sorry for being your better.
Posted on 9/15/16 at 4:00 pm to PrimeTime Money
quote:
Cardinals, Cubs, and Astros were all in the same division and they are the top 3 luckiest teams.
You serious Clarke?
Posted on 9/15/16 at 4:03 pm to SaturdayTraditions
I will never accept that Bartman lost that game/series for Chicago.
All Alex Gonzalez has to do is field a simple routine hit and turn two and it stops the bleeding.
All Alex Gonzalez has to do is field a simple routine hit and turn two and it stops the bleeding.
Posted on 9/15/16 at 4:17 pm to McCaigBro69
I put the blame on Gonzales's shoulder as well.... Not to mention we had 2 games left with our two aces, Bartman really got worked over 
Posted on 9/15/16 at 4:23 pm to ProjectP2294
quote:
I'm all about advanced metrics, but saying one of the more poorly run franchises over the last decade is simply unlucky is absurd
They aren't saying that they're simply unlucky. From the article:
quote:
Although the Mariners have hardly been uniformly great during their drought, no franchise has had more bad luck keeping it out of the playoffs over the past couple decades, given its yearly records.
The whole point of the article is a simple comparison between the actual playoff appearances and expected playoff appearances in relation to the average wins generally needed to gain a postseason berth. In essence they're just good (the few years they are good) in the wrong years, while the Cardinals are bad (the few years they are bad) in the right years. For example they missed the playoffs twice while winning 93 games, while the Cardinals made the playoffs in a year they won 83 games.
The point wasn't to say that the only thing separating the Cardinals from the Mariners is luck
Posted on 9/15/16 at 4:31 pm to reddman
quote:
frick the Cardinals and their fans.
Posted on 9/15/16 at 4:38 pm to Bench McElroy
Also don't forget the "infield fly" game. 1st year of the single wild card game, beat the Braves who won a lot more games than them.
Posted on 9/16/16 at 8:07 am to McCaigBro69
quote:
I will never accept that Bartman lost that game/series for Chicago. All Alex Gonzalez has to do is field a simple routine hit and turn two and it stops the bleeding.
I completely agree... I just put him up there because he is another "sign" of the type of luck that the Cubs have had. Bartman did little, to nothing wrong, and Alou blew it out of proportion with the way he acted.
Gonzalez is to blame more than anyone.
Posted on 9/16/16 at 8:11 am to chitiger91
quote:the only person who should have gotten the blame
put the blame on Gonzales's shoulder as well
Posted on 9/16/16 at 8:25 am to Bench McElroy
It is called "Making your own luck"
Also known as, hacking into rivals emails and servers.
Also known as, hacking into rivals emails and servers.
Posted on 9/16/16 at 8:32 am to Bench McElroy
This is where I parked my car.
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