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FiveThirtyEight Analysis - What's wrong with Aaron Rodgers?
Posted on 9/26/16 at 12:05 am
Posted on 9/26/16 at 12:05 am
quote:
From 2008 to 2014, Rodgers averaged 7.34 yards per dropback, according to ESPN’s Stats & Information Group. Rodgers’s rate was the second-best during that time period and just 0.01 yards per dropback behind Peyton Manning’s. That sort of dominant play earned Rodgers two MVP awards and helped the Packers win a Super Bowl.
Recently, things haven’t gone quite so well. Rodgers has averaged 5.79 yards per dropback since the start of 2015.
So what has caused Rodgers’s numbers to decline so steeply? The two biggest components of yards per dropback are completion percentage and yards per completion, and Rodgers has seen massive declines in both metrics. His completion percentage has dropped from 65.9 percent (from 2008 to 2014) to 60.3 percent since the start of the 2015 season, and his yards per completion has gone from 12.5 to 10.9 over that same period.
The unit most responsible for Rodgers’s decline, however, appears to be the wide-receiving corps. From 2008 to 2014, Rodgers completed 66.5 percent of his passes to wide receivers and averaged 14.2 yards per completion. Since then, he’s completed 57.8 percent of such passes and is averaging 12.0 yards per completion. In other words, his throws are being completed significantly less often, and when they are completed, they aren’t gaining as many yards.
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Posted on 9/26/16 at 12:09 am to Street Hawk
Less than 12 hours ago he averaged 8.5 yards per attempt and threw 4 TDs in the first half.
Posted on 9/26/16 at 12:25 am to Street Hawk
I mean he lost his #1 receiver right before the season started in 2015.
Davante Adams hasn't lived up to the expectations, and Randall Cobb probably benefits more from playing with Rodgers than the other way around.
Davante Adams hasn't lived up to the expectations, and Randall Cobb probably benefits more from playing with Rodgers than the other way around.
Posted on 9/26/16 at 12:29 am to Street Hawk
This is NFL nerdery.
Is he the best still?
No.
That crown was premature.
Is he still top 3?
Yes.
Running for your life takes a toll. (I know I am apologist who happens to Watch games and not just numbers and metrics.)
Is he the best still?
No.
That crown was premature.
Is he still top 3?
Yes.
Running for your life takes a toll. (I know I am apologist who happens to Watch games and not just numbers and metrics.)
Posted on 9/26/16 at 7:01 am to Street Hawk
Olivia Munn is in his dome.
Posted on 9/26/16 at 7:14 am to PrimeTime Money
worth it
Posted on 9/26/16 at 7:40 am to PrimeTime Money
Rodgers routinely makes his OL look horrible by holding on to the ball. Nothing really changed with his game this week, the Packers passing game is dependent on YAC from the receivers.
I can't find the link but I remember reading that of all the top QBs Rodgers was the lowest% of TDs thrown into the endzone.
I can't find the link but I remember reading that of all the top QBs Rodgers was the lowest% of TDs thrown into the endzone.
Posted on 9/26/16 at 7:41 am to PrimeTime Money
quote:
Olivia Munn is on his dome.
Posted on 9/26/16 at 8:17 am to Street Hawk
Aaron Rodgers' true domination of the NFL only lasted from late 2010 to the end of 2011, that is when he was prematurely crowned as the GOAT.
This was his receiving corps during that stretch:
Greg Jennings
Jordy Nelson
Donald Driver
Jermichael Finley
Randall Cobb
James Jones
All recognizable names, all studs. Cobb was pretty much the low man on the totum pole in those years, and he's now recognized as a great slot receiver. Even Jones led the league in TDs one year while playing with Rodgers.
The receivers made Rodgers look better than he was. He doesn't have 6 stud receivers to throw to anymore and we are seeing the result. Don't get me wrong, Rodgers is great, and I would be over the moon to have him as my QB, but he absolutely did not carry a team of no names the way Drew Brees or Tom Brady has before.
This was his receiving corps during that stretch:
Greg Jennings
Jordy Nelson
Donald Driver
Jermichael Finley
Randall Cobb
James Jones
All recognizable names, all studs. Cobb was pretty much the low man on the totum pole in those years, and he's now recognized as a great slot receiver. Even Jones led the league in TDs one year while playing with Rodgers.
The receivers made Rodgers look better than he was. He doesn't have 6 stud receivers to throw to anymore and we are seeing the result. Don't get me wrong, Rodgers is great, and I would be over the moon to have him as my QB, but he absolutely did not carry a team of no names the way Drew Brees or Tom Brady has before.
Posted on 9/26/16 at 8:24 am to The Midnight Rider
quote:You mean a rookie (2011) who playoff QB in college wasn't a top reciever right away?
Cobb was pretty much the low man on the totum pole in those years,
quote:And you think it was Jones who made Rodgers, not the other way around?
Even Jones led the league in TDs one year while playing with Rodgers.
Posted on 9/26/16 at 8:30 am to Street Hawk
The Packers are the problem
Like the Cowboys, they have some players and personel they need to get rid of if they ever want to return to the elite.
For the Cowboys, those are are Romo, Dez Bryant and Jerry Jones. I call them the 3 stooges. As long as those 3 are a part of the Cowboys organization they will continue to underachieve
For the Packers, its McCarthy and Clay Matthews. Those 2 will perpetually hold the Packers back.
Like the Cowboys, they have some players and personel they need to get rid of if they ever want to return to the elite.
For the Cowboys, those are are Romo, Dez Bryant and Jerry Jones. I call them the 3 stooges. As long as those 3 are a part of the Cowboys organization they will continue to underachieve
For the Packers, its McCarthy and Clay Matthews. Those 2 will perpetually hold the Packers back.
Posted on 9/26/16 at 8:31 am to VerlanderBEAST
quote:I don't really get why that matters.
I can't find the link but I remember reading that of all the top QBs Rodgers was the lowest% of TDs thrown into the endzone.
People may see that and just think the WRs break 6 tackles juking their way to the endzone. But it's probably moreso Rodgers placing the ball in the right position and throwing it to the right guy who has the most available avenues to run after the catch.
Posted on 9/26/16 at 8:49 am to shel311
People overinflate the value of TD passes when they look at QBs. If a guy moves up and down the field, is efficient and doesn't throw picks, who cares what is the last play of a drive? As if TD/Int is some meaningful plus minus number. ZOMG, if a guy piles up 2 yd TD passes, he's the best! 
Posted on 9/26/16 at 8:50 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
You mean a rookie (2011) who playoff QB in college wasn't a top reciever right away?
No, I mean that Cobb is widely recognized as the second-best playmaker on the Packers in 2016 and back then he was basically an afterthought. The teams from Rodgers' best seasons were DEEP at playmaker. That's my point, you douche.
quote:
And you think it was Jones who made Rodgers, not the other way around?
Again, my point is that one of the "lowest ranked" playmakers on the Packers from those years was only leading the league in TDs. Rodgers had a plethora of good players to throw the ball to. He doesn't anymore. Do the math.
This post was edited on 9/26/16 at 8:51 am
Posted on 9/26/16 at 8:59 am to The Midnight Rider
quote:Yes. And why was a rookie reciever, who played QB in college an afterthought?
No, I mean that Cobb is widely recognized as the second-best playmaker on the Packers in 2016 and back then he was basically an afterthought
quote:But some of those playmaker weren't even on the team (Cobb in 2010) or weren't even established yet (Nelson in 2010).
The teams from Rodgers' best seasons were DEEP at playmaker.
quote:Well it's a pretty strange point to make them you're talking about how deep they were in 2011 based on their 2016 skills (Cobb).
That's my point, you douche.
quote:Yes, just like recievers for Brady, Brees, and Manning all became great when they had the best QBs throwing the ball.
Again, my point is that one of the "lowest ranked" playmakers on the Packers from those years was only leading the league in TDs.
In other words, Rodgers is an all time great; just like 3 of his contemporaries (listed above). It's foolish to diminish their "greatness."
Not too mention, in order to diminish his skills, you've completely discounted that he was elite in 2014, when he won the MVP a 38/5 TD/INT ratio. That's a ridiculous figure.
This post was edited on 9/26/16 at 9:06 am
Posted on 9/26/16 at 9:06 am to buckeye_vol
I think Rodgers is just going through some physical changes. he is getting older. All the elites have had to adjust their game to stay on top. I feel like Rodgers is kind of in the place.
Posted on 9/29/16 at 3:49 am to shel311
quote:
I don't really get why that matters.
People may see that and just think the WRs break 6 tackles juking their way to the endzone. But it's probably moreso Rodgers placing the ball in the right position and throwing it to the right guy who has the most available avenues to run after the catch.
My point is its a receiver driven offense not a QB driven offense
Posted on 9/29/16 at 4:19 am to VerlanderBEAST
quote:
My point is its a receiver driven offense not a QB driven offense
Don't kid yourself, it is a QB driven offense.
Which makes it dangerous when he has great receivers
Posted on 9/29/16 at 5:51 am to Street Hawk
Posted on 1/2/17 at 12:44 am to Street Hawk
Hmm
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