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re: Extreme defensive shifts in baseball
Posted on 5/28/14 at 1:07 pm to The Sad Banana
Posted on 5/28/14 at 1:07 pm to The Sad Banana
Beat me to it.
1
Posted on 5/28/14 at 1:35 pm to ZenFNmaster
I think Ortiz could leg out a double if he bunted it past 3rd base. If it gets in between the infield and outfield there is a ton of space.
And Ortiz is slow as f
And Ortiz is slow as f
Posted on 5/28/14 at 1:50 pm to barry
quote:
So in situations like this, why don't they just bunt?
Do you watch baseball at all? It happens all the time. Rizzo bunted in consecutive at bats earlier this year against the Cardinals.
Guys like David Ortiz aren't going to bunt every single at bat. The situation doesn't even call for it 100% of the time.
Posted on 5/28/14 at 1:52 pm to PurpleAndGold86
I think the Yankees shifted against Matt Carpenter yesterday or the other day. I thought that was really weird. I know he's not doing as well as he did last year, but the guy is a really good bat handler.
Posted on 5/28/14 at 1:54 pm to The Seaward
quote:the bucs shift a lot. not as much as the rays or brewers, but still a lot.
Bunting major league pitching isn't easy. Plus sluggers are typically some of the worst bunters.
it worked really well last year, where the whole defense was aligned -- pitch, location, catcher set up, alignment. it hasn't been as effective this year, mostly due to the pitching staff's struggles.
For the pirates, they're throwing a ton of breaking stuff to induce groundballs into the shift. a handful of guys have tried bunting, but they're not really seeing easy pitches to bunt either. the choice for most powerhitters is to just do what they do. if the guy throws a mistake that would be easy to bunt, it typically would have been better to swing away to go yard.
Posted on 5/28/14 at 1:55 pm to barry
quote:No, but there's no chance a guy who probably has never bunted in his life(generally speaking of course) is going to bunt that successfully. He's slow, so the pitcher has more leeway in how much ground he can cover and still make a play.
If he gets on base at a .500 clip when this happens I bet, they don't complain.
Posted on 5/28/14 at 1:56 pm to PurpleAndGold86
quote:
It happens all the time
No, it doesn't. Teams use the shift almost daily now. You rarely see batters trying to bunt to beat it. Rarely.
Posted on 5/28/14 at 1:56 pm to shel311
quote:
No, but there's no chance a guy who probably has never bunted in his life(generally speaking of course) is going to bunt that successfully. He's slow, so the pitcher has more leeway in how much ground he can cover and still make a play.
One of the difficulties of a bunt is stopping it from going too far so 1st/3rd basemen can make a play too quickly.
In this instance, there is no such thing as too hard if the ball goes down the 3rd base line so the pitcher is basically taken out of the play more so in this instance.
Posted on 5/28/14 at 1:57 pm to shel311
quote:
No, but there's no chance a guy who probably has never bunted in his life(generally speaking of course) is going to bunt that successfully. He's slow, so the pitcher has more leeway in how much ground he can cover and still make a play.
I'm not saying you're wrong, but the guy doing this also doesn't have to lay down as good of a bunt as a "specialist" type bunter. He needs to get it near the 3rd base line, and can actually even pop it up a bit if he gets it deep enough in the infield.
So to those who said it happens now, has that stopped teams from shifting or do they just live with giving up singles?
Posted on 5/28/14 at 2:00 pm to Buckeye06
quote:
So to those who said it happens now, has that stopped teams from shifting or do they just live with giving up singles?
I've seen once or twice teams not shift on Rizzo so drastically after he attempted to bunt, but in almost all instances the defensive team is more than willing to live with giving up a single to those guys.
Posted on 5/28/14 at 2:04 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:Just a complete hypothetical of course, if Ortiz did this from time to time, you think he'd be successful what percentage of the time?
One of the difficulties of a bunt is stopping it from going too far so 1st/3rd basemen can make a play too quickly.
In this instance, there is no such thing as too hard if the ball goes down the 3rd base line so the pitcher is basically taken out of the play more so in this instance.
Posted on 5/28/14 at 2:06 pm to shel311
Here are some stats that show it's not as easy as it seems:
LINK
quote:
Since 2008, with nobody on, Pena has attempted a bunt 65 times. He’s bunted the ball fair 33 times, and he’s reached base 23 times. Even with practice, Pena’s right around a 50/50 fair/not-fair rate, but he’s turned better than a third of his attempts into bases. We find Jay Bruce at 30 attempts, with nine fair and five successful. Brian McCann also has 30 attempts, with eight fair and six successful. What’s clear is that bunting against the shift isn’t automatic. What’s also clear is that it’s worked often, and that these hitters could do better if they just practiced their bunting more. I suppose that’s just a guess, but I feel good about it.
LINK
Posted on 5/28/14 at 2:10 pm to KosmoCramer
More Stats:
I interpret this as a bunt that results either on base or an out, NOT a foul bunt with less than 2 strikes.
There are lots of videos from this week in this link
LINK
quote:
Season Totals
Bunts against the shift in 2014: 30, 18 successful
Bunts against the shift through this date in 2013: 16
Bunts against the shift through this date in 2012: 6
I interpret this as a bunt that results either on base or an out, NOT a foul bunt with less than 2 strikes.
There are lots of videos from this week in this link
LINK
Posted on 5/28/14 at 2:10 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
Pena has attempted a bunt 65 times. He’s bunted the ball fair 33 times, and he’s reached base 23 times
I would say those are awesome stats in favor of bunting with Pena
he's batting .700 when he hits the bunt fair.
the other 50% of the time he doesn't, he still has 2 strikes to work with
Posted on 5/28/14 at 2:11 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
What’s clear is that bunting against the shift isn’t automatic. What’s also clear is that it’s worked often, and that these hitters could do better if they just practiced their bunting more. I suppose that’s just a guess, but I feel good about it.
I agree. And it would force Infields to play a more traditional defensive setup that would in turn open up some of those gaps for hitter to drive the ball thru. Not at least trying to bunt is playing into the strength of the shift.
This post was edited on 5/28/14 at 2:11 pm
Posted on 5/28/14 at 2:13 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:To me, it seems like you'd have to be successful 50% of the time to be worth it, right?
Since 2008, with nobody on, Pena has attempted a bunt 65 times. He’s bunted the ball fair 33 times, and he’s reached base 23 times. Even with practice, Pena’s right around a 50/50 fair/not-fair rate, but he’s turned better than a third of his attempts into bases. We find Jay Bruce at 30 attempts, with nine fair and five successful. Brian McCann also has 30 attempts, with eight fair and six successful. What’s clear is that bunting against the shift isn’t automatic. What’s also clear is that it’s worked often, and that these hitters could do better if they just practiced their bunting more. I suppose that’s just a guess, but I feel good about it.
Even if Papi does this successfully 40% of the time, that's not more valuable than him putting up his regular numbers. Sure he gets on base more now(I assume his .OBP is under .400), but he also loses all the extra base hits, so I'd think you have to be really successfull for it to be worth it, for the really good, powerful hitters.
Posted on 5/28/14 at 2:16 pm to shel311
quote:
Even if Papi does this successfully 40% of the time, that's not more valuable than him putting up his regular numbers. Sure he gets on base more now(I assume his .OBP is under .400), but he also loses all the extra base hits, so I'd think you have to be really successfull for it to be worth it, for the really good, powerful hitters.
Theoretically, it would only have to be a better average than their batting average minus the attempts and successful attempts at bunts because they are still able to walk even if they square to bunt. At least that's how I would interpret it.
Extra base hits are important, but getting on base is the most important thing offensively in baseball.
Posted on 5/28/14 at 2:17 pm to shel311
quote:
Even if Papi does this successfully 40% of the time, that's not more valuable than him putting up his regular numbers. Sure he gets on base more now(I assume his .OBP is under .400), but he also loses all the extra base hits, so I'd think you have to be really successfull for it to be worth it, for the really good, powerful hitters.
I guess what you hope for is if the other team knows you can bunt, that the defense won't shift as much, and then he will have a better chance to rope a double or triple.
But if they will give you a single every time then I don't know if there's a point
Posted on 5/28/14 at 2:21 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:I think it'd have to be higher than whatever his OPS is IMO.
Theoretically, it would only have to be a better average than their batting average minus the attempts and successful attempts at bunts because they are still able to walk even if they square to bunt. At least that's how I would interpret it.
Posted on 5/28/14 at 2:22 pm to Buckeye06
quote:Yea, that would be the main idea, to give the appearance that you can do it successfully, then they call off the extreme shift.
I guess what you hope for is if the other team knows you can bunt, that the defense won't shift as much, and then he will have a better chance to rope a double or triple.
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