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Started By
Message
re: College Football Week 1/Futures Bet Thread
Posted on 8/30/16 at 8:46 am to LSUAlum2001
Posted on 8/30/16 at 8:46 am to LSUAlum2001
Damnit. Identified New Mexico State +8 as a great play and wagered on it, put it in a couple of teasers/parlays too. Now their star player is listed as doubtful with a sports hernia, just my luck.
Also seeing Stratosphere is dealing San Jose State +5.5. Told myself if the line got up to +5.5 I would bet San Jose State. Do I go to the Stratosphere and suck it up to make that bet? I always feel like that casino, especially the parking garage and the area, is shady.
Also seeing Stratosphere is dealing San Jose State +5.5. Told myself if the line got up to +5.5 I would bet San Jose State. Do I go to the Stratosphere and suck it up to make that bet? I always feel like that casino, especially the parking garage and the area, is shady.
0
Posted on 8/30/16 at 8:52 am to LSUAlum2001
quote:
Minnesota -13
Temple -17
Colorado St +7.5
Georgia Tech -3
Missouri +10
Washington -26
Iowa -27
UCLA +3
San Jose St +3.5
Clemson -7
Ole Miss +4
Just saw you asking for critique on page 1.
Minnesota -13: I think you waited a bit too late here. I still think Minnesota covers this one, I think they win by 14, but could have gotten this at 11 or 10 not too long ago.
Temple -17: You can get this under 17 at many shops.
Boise State -19.5: Bigger fan of this play under 20 than at 20 or over, but its still a tricky spot.
Missouri +10: I like this one, I bet it myself at 10
Washington -26: Sorry but I took Rutgers at +26.5 yesterday. Anything over 24 is Rutgers territory IMO.
Iowa -27: Waiting for this line to hit 28.5. I think there is +EV value on MIAMI OH at 28, but even more at 28.5. I honestly don't think this is a good bet for Iowa at anything over 24.
UCLA +3: I like this play, and have been waffling on pulling the trigger all week. Still haven't done it. This is one of those where the math says UCLA, but the gut says A&M. Bad taste in the mouth from Arizona State last year. They too were at +3 and got blown out. This UCLA team is better than that ASU team, but also has to play outdoors at Kyle Field.
San Jose State +3.5: Its at 5 now and is at 5.5 in some shops. Grab it. Good play.
Clemson -7: On this personally at -7... I hate playing big public road favorites but my spreadsheets say this one can not be ignored. I think Auburn is getting too much respect for being a SEC team playing at home. This line should be 10.
Ole Miss +4: On this at 4.5
Posted on 8/30/16 at 8:56 am to goldennugget
Updated Week 1 Card ~
UNC +3
Auburn +7.5
Ole Miss +4.5
UNC +3
Auburn +7.5
Ole Miss +4.5
Posted on 8/30/16 at 9:04 am to ChemE in the OP
May add Vandy on Thursday if the number is right.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 9:09 am to ChemE in the OP
Concerns me a great deal that the Clemson/Auburn line hasn't moved but 1/2 a point since it came out with over 70% of bets being on Clemson. I hopped on it when it came out and it's got me nervous.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 9:14 am to goldennugget
San Jose State just hit 5.5 at Westgate so no stratosphere for me
Posted on 8/30/16 at 9:16 am to Carville
quote:
Who was the guy that posted all his stuff on here last year? He linked His data each week and I used it pretty successfully.
that was accnodefense. I'm not sure if he's popped his head in here yet, or not.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 9:21 am to gatorhata9
quote:
Concerns me a great deal that the Clemson/Auburn line hasn't moved but 1/2 a point since it came out with over 70% of bets being on Clemson. I hopped on it when it came out and it's got me nervous.
I hear ya. If this were week 8 or 9, I'd be all over the underdog in this situation. However, I agree with the poster above that Auburn is getting a lot of love for being a talented SEC team playing at home. But that talent didn't turn into results last year, and I dont expect it to this year, either. Sure, Sean White has another year in the system. But, they're playing against the most explosive offense in the country (arguably). Clemson ran roughshod through Bama's defense, so I dont think Auburn (even though their DL is very talented) and Kevin Steele are going to slow them down. I dont think Auburn keeps up. I bought the half point a few weeks back, so all I need is a TD.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 9:35 am to bamaatlsu
quote:
I hear ya. If this were week 8 or 9, I'd be all over the underdog in this situation. However, I agree with the poster above that Auburn is getting a lot of love for being a talented SEC team playing at home. But that talent didn't turn into results last year, and I dont expect it to this year, either. Sure, Sean White has another year in the system. But, they're playing against the most explosive offense in the country (arguably). Clemson ran roughshod through Bama's defense, so I dont think Auburn (even though their DL is very talented) and Kevin Steele are going to slow them down. I dont think Auburn keeps up. I bought the half point a few weeks back, so all I need is a TD.
Couldn't have said it better myself. I am usually the first one all over an underdog that is not getting any love by the public. Great example last year was Louisville on a Thursday night at home vs. Clemson, line was 7.5 I believe just like this one. Louisville covers. However the situations were completely different. Louisville was coming off 2 losses to start the year, Clemson had won their first two games pretty easily. All signs pointed to Clemson, public all over Clemson, so I played Louisville. But this year is different. This isn't Week 3, this isn't a Thursday night.
With that being said I won't be surprised if Auburn covers, in fact I expect it. My play on Clemson is stricly because I got the line at -7 and now its at -7.5 everywhere, and because I think the line should be 10, so I believe there is value.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 9:40 am to LSUJuice
quote:
I usually like to pick some big dogs to cover in week one. Looking for favorites that traditionally lay off the gas or like to sleepwalk.
Of course after I say this I find two big home favorites I like: Michigan and Florida. Thoughts on Michigan -41.5 over Hawaii and Florida -36.5 over UMass?
Posted on 8/30/16 at 9:41 am to goldennugget
Clemson line is now 8 on Sportsbook.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 9:47 am to Ed Osteen
quote:
sportsbook has been pissing me off lately.
I agree. I hate sportsbook and it takes forever to get your money. I'm currently on 5dimes
Posted on 8/30/16 at 9:52 am to goldennugget
quote:
UCLA +3: I like this play, and have been waffling on pulling the trigger all week. Still haven't done it. This is one of those where the math says UCLA, but the gut says A&M. Bad taste in the mouth from Arizona State last year. They too were at +3 and got blown out. This UCLA team is better than that ASU team, but also has to play outdoors at Kyle Field.
I agree with this but ASU was down 7 with 4mins so they didnt really get blown out
I like UCLA in this spot. If AtM doesnt the melt will be all time
Posted on 8/30/16 at 9:56 am to goldennugget
quote:
I think Auburn is getting too much respect for being a SEC team playing at home. This line should be 10.
Absolutely. Auburn has a bad QB in White and their LB & DB's are atrocious. I think Clemson comes in and win by at least 2 TD's. They damn near return everyone including a hesiman trophy QB. Not buying the Auburn hype at all
Posted on 8/30/16 at 10:48 am to Howyouluhdat
Yea clemson -7 was my biggest play this week. Imo guys getting cute with auburn are gonna get hurt. nobody has a bigger SEC chip on their shoulder than daboo
That stadium will be loaded with taters and could get legit out of hand in the 3rd qtr. alot of these Clemson guys have played on the biggest stage in CFB and they will be HYPED
That stadium will be loaded with taters and could get legit out of hand in the 3rd qtr. alot of these Clemson guys have played on the biggest stage in CFB and they will be HYPED
Posted on 8/30/16 at 10:52 am to Kaizen
I got them at -7.5
Thinking about parlaying with another game as well.
Thinking about parlaying with another game as well.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 10:57 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
Updated Week 1 Card ~
UNC +3
Auburn +7.5
Ole Miss +4.5
on all the above except auburn, just can't pull the trigger
quote:
May add Vandy on Thursday if the number is right.
I really wish it was back down to -4 and then i would buy it -3
Posted on 8/30/16 at 10:59 am to aVatiger
quote:
back down to -4 and then i would buy it -3
it was -3 for weeks son!
Posted on 8/30/16 at 11:09 am to oleyeller
i'm not going to lay down money on a game that's weeks away for college kids
they do dumb things, even Vandy kids on the occasion... well, more rapey stuff than anything else.. but still
they do dumb things, even Vandy kids on the occasion... well, more rapey stuff than anything else.. but still
Posted on 8/30/16 at 11:09 am to Howyouluhdat
quote:
Not buying the Auburn hype at all
Could you link me to some of this Auburn hype that you're referring to?
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