- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: College Football Week 1/Futures Bet Thread
Posted on 8/19/16 at 7:51 pm to oleyeller
Posted on 8/19/16 at 7:51 pm to oleyeller
Goyim, here is my massive Spreadsheet as promised
LINK
It will probably overwhelm you goyim but its how I do it.
I use 2 different variables to calculate my percentages. The percentages you see are not win percentages but ROI percentages.
I also have the raw data for every team in the tabs.
LINK
It will probably overwhelm you goyim but its how I do it.
I use 2 different variables to calculate my percentages. The percentages you see are not win percentages but ROI percentages.
I also have the raw data for every team in the tabs.
1
Posted on 8/19/16 at 9:08 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
They're going to get beat by three touchdowns now.
Yep.
Posted on 8/20/16 at 6:36 am to ChemE in the OP
Can the NFL geniuses keep posting so I can bet other side. Very profitable. Thx
Posted on 8/20/16 at 6:45 am to pbro62
quote:
Can the NFL geniuses keep posting so I can bet other side. Very profitable. Thx
its preseason, very unpredictable.. most just have small action on preseason for entertainment purposes only. Its not like you can cap who is going to play how many mins each game, and who will go for 2 as opposed to kick extra points. Too many variables... stop acting like you know something others dont.Posted on 8/20/16 at 6:47 am to oleyeller
Love the TD trolls. Three plays posted go 2-1 and they're already coming out of the closet.
Posted on 8/20/16 at 6:48 am to ChemE in the OP
And the one that lost beat the closing line by three points.
Posted on 8/20/16 at 6:49 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
posted
key word. anyone can come in popping their gums claiming they won some bets when they dont post their plays. And a little trash talk is always fun, but we are not in competetion with each other, we are all on the same team. Us vs the book
Posted on 8/20/16 at 7:01 am to oleyeller
The way it works with trolls like this one is he sees my Eagles and Bears plays hit, then tails the Dolphins play. Inevitably that one doesn't hit (despite getting the best number) and he feels the need to come complain... as if that's a reasonable thing to do.
#MessageBoardLife
#MessageBoardLife
Posted on 8/20/16 at 9:08 am to ChemE in the OP
i lost nyj game last nite... due to skins scoring a td with 20 seconds and converting a 2pt conversion lol. Something that would never happen in regular season. Its strictly for entertainment right now.
Posted on 8/20/16 at 9:44 am to goldennugget
quote:
Goyim, here is my massive Spreadsheet as promised
LINK
It will probably overwhelm you goyim but its how I do it.
I use 2 different variables to calculate my percentages. The percentages you see are not win percentages but ROI percentages.
I also have the raw data for every team in the tabs.
Can I get access?
This post was edited on 8/20/16 at 9:57 am
Posted on 8/20/16 at 10:43 am to HailToTheChiz
quote:
Can I get access?
Is it not letting you access it?
EDIT: Made it public access. Let me know if you still cant access it
This post was edited on 8/20/16 at 10:45 am
Posted on 8/20/16 at 11:43 am to goldennugget
my man
Posted on 8/20/16 at 12:24 pm to goldennugget
Thanks nugget can you explain it tho
What should i be looking at to tell the % that iy will cover?
Is UGA the #1 bet? Sorry im confused by it
What should i be looking at to tell the % that iy will cover?
Is UGA the #1 bet? Sorry im confused by it
Posted on 8/20/16 at 1:27 pm to SDVTiger
If UGA is the number one bet...
Posted on 8/20/16 at 4:17 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
What should i be looking at to tell the % that iy will cover?
I would look at the "Combined Variable ROI Percentages" in Columns S-X.
CC = ROI on covering the line.
C6 = ROI on covering a 6pt teaser, etc.
ROI is not a %chance of covering but how much of a return one would expect the bet to have based on the output of my data. The highest CC% is BYU +1.5 at 21.0%. Meaning if you made the bet an infinite number of times, you would expect a return of 21%. This doesn't mean it is a lock, or it has a great chance of winning, just that my system interprets it as a profitable bet based on the criteria given.
ROI is calculated on Cover % - Breakeven %. So if my system gives a play a 50% chance of covering, the ROI is 50% - 52.4% = -2.4% ROI. If my system gives a play a 80% chance of covering a 13 point teaser, the ROI is 80% ^ 4 - 54.5% = .4096 - .545 = -13.5% ROI.
There are plenty of instances of a bet being profitable on the cover side, but not on the teaser side, and vice versa.
Posted on 8/20/16 at 4:19 pm to goldennugget
I'll look at it tonight..
Posted on 8/20/16 at 4:19 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
If UGA is the number one bet...
#3 Side and #1 13 point teaser.
I hate it, I hate square plays. But last year this same spreadsheet in Week 1, the top 10 bets went 9-1 ATS. On the other hand, I don't think any of the Top 10 were as square as this Georgia bet.
I'll trust my spreadsheet, but I have fully resigned to the fact that I will be buried this year because one of those top bets will sink me.
Posted on 8/20/16 at 4:37 pm to goldennugget
How's it got Ucla - A&M?
Posted on 8/20/16 at 4:59 pm to ChemE in the OP
How does your winning percentage in college usually compare to NFL bets?
Posted on 8/20/16 at 5:06 pm to ReauxlTide222
Percentage was significantly higher in NCAAF than NFL last year but I had that ridiculous start to the year, 13-2 at about 4 weeks in. Historically they're usually both in the 54-56% range. If I had the discipline to only play high volume/exposure NCAAF that'd probably be the way to go. What kind of Anerican would I be if I didn't bet Sundays though?
Page 10 of 66
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News