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re: CHC Thread - Back After A Day Off - Ray (AZ) @ Arrieta (CHC)

Posted on 9/5/15 at 4:50 pm to
Posted by Vicks Kennel Club
29-24 #BlewDat
Member since Dec 2010
31061 posts
Posted on 9/5/15 at 4:50 pm to
I know this is so far away and not guaranteed, but I started looking at the Wild Card game. We can assume that the game will be in Pittsburgh, and that the Cubs will have to face RHP Gerrit Cole.

Obviously, Arrieta is the guy we want on the mound for the Cubs, but the fact that Pittsburgh is loaded with righties in McCutchen, Marte, Kang, Harrison, Cervelli, Mercer, and Ramirez. Walker is a switch hitter and Alvarez and Polanco are the only two lefties. I threw a couple extra infielders because I do not know what four will be across the diamond for the Pirates in that game. The righty-heavy lineup (especially Cutch and Marte) make an RHP ideal.

Since Cole is a righty and Pittsburgh surpresses right-handed power, I am assuming Joe will load the lineup with lefties. Here are my thoughts:

CF S Fowler
LF L Schwarber
3B R Bryant
1B L Rizzo
RF R Soler
2B L Coghlan
C L Montero
P R Arrieta
SS R Russell

We would have five guys hitting lefty with this lineup, and we probably have our best hitters in this way as well.

If for some odd reason that Liriano was pitching in this game, then I would bench Coghlan for Castro because Coghlan is trash after southpaws. A lefty would be scary because we may have to rethink a few things. Should David Ross play? Do we move Schwarber to catcher and put Denorfia, Jackson, or Szczur in left? What about Bryant to left, Schwarber to catcher, and Baez at the hot corner?

Against a lefty, I may consider this lineup:

CF S Fowler
C L Schwarber
LF R Bryant
1B L Rizzo
RF R Soler
3B R Baez
2B R Castro
P R Arrieta
SS R Russell

This is very righty heavy and we know that Rizzo mashes lefties better than any lefty since Barry Bonds. Of course, when Pittsburgh brings in a righty reliever, then we could pull Montero, Coghlan, and more in for reinforcements.

Any thoughts? I just know that I trust this organization so much, and Arrieta is incredible. I really feel my first lineup on here is what we go with assuming Soler is ready to play.
Posted by BCMCubs
Colorado
Member since Nov 2011
22146 posts
Posted on 9/5/15 at 5:03 pm to
quote:

Should David Ross play?

I sure would prefer a stronger bat in there, but Ross is so experienced, plus if Lester gets the ball Ross will be in there.
quote:

Any thoughts?

Yes. A few.
1.) I am so fired up to be discussing postseason situations. I know it's only been 7 years, but it feels much longer than that.

2.)I am in favor of any lineup that features Kyle Schwarber.

3.) I won't feel completely comfortable talking about the postseason until they are passing out hats and shirts on the field. They could have a 3 game lead with 4 to play, don't care. I have been conditioned to anticipate, and eventually lay back and accept disaster. I don't know how else to be a Cubs fan.
Posted by Vicks Kennel Club
29-24 #BlewDat
Member since Dec 2010
31061 posts
Posted on 9/5/15 at 5:22 pm to
quote:

I sure would prefer a stronger bat in there, but Ross is so experienced, plus if Lester gets the ball Ross will be in there.

David Ross is only there for Lester and maybe if we face a lefty (if Liriano somehow pitches). Against Cole, I put Montero back there and Schwarber in left. I feel like a lineup against a RHP is pretty easy to figure out. We have to get a little more creative against lefties.

quote:

2.)I am in favor of any lineup that features Kyle Schwarber.

Agreed. Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber, Fowler, and Russell are locked into every lineup scenario possible. I would like Soler in right if possible. Coghlan/Castro platoon at 2B. I think a big question is if we face a lefty, then what do we do at catcher and left field.

quote:

3.) I won't feel completely comfortable talking about the postseason until they are passing out hats and shirts on the field. They could have a 3 game lead with 4 to play, don't care. I have been conditioned to anticipate, and eventually lay back and accept disaster. I don't know how else to be a Cubs fan.

That's fair. I am just putting on my Joe Maddon hat as a fun exercise (although I am not wearing pajamas).
Posted by BCMCubs
Colorado
Member since Nov 2011
22146 posts
Posted on 9/5/15 at 5:28 pm to
I know this man. Prognosticating is always fun. I'm not actually weird about it, it's just always in the back of my mind
Posted by cubsfan5150
Member since Nov 2007
15756 posts
Posted on 9/5/15 at 8:03 pm to
So with 28 games left, we'll finish with 91 wins by going .500 the rest of the way. Washington would have to go 22-6 just to force a playoff.

On top of that, if we don't skip any starts the rest of the way, Arrieta now lines up to start our playoff game vs the Pirates, with the only real question being where the game will be played.

Posted by BCMCubs
Colorado
Member since Nov 2011
22146 posts
Posted on 9/5/15 at 8:09 pm to
I like those numbers
Posted by tigercubs
RVA
Member since Jan 2010
2325 posts
Posted on 9/5/15 at 8:34 pm to
How many games do the nats have against the mets? I know they get to play a lot of Phi, Atl, and Mia. Hoping those teams can develop a pulse long enough to beat them a couple times
Posted by cubsfan5150
Member since Nov 2007
15756 posts
Posted on 9/5/15 at 8:57 pm to
You can see from my previous post that I don't think there's any doubt that the Cubs are going to the playoffs, but I will say that the Nationals play zero teams with winning records after their series against the Mets that starts Monday until they finish the season vs the Mets, while the Cubs have 14 games left against the three best teams in baseball.

Even with all of that, you have to remember that the Mets (2.5 games behind the Cubs) would also have to finish with a better record than the Cubs and they have nine games left vs winning teams (6 vs WAS, 3 vs NYY).

There's a reason that the Cubs are sitting at a nearly 90% chance of making the playoffs.
This post was edited on 9/5/15 at 9:00 pm
Posted by Maximus
Member since Feb 2004
81261 posts
Posted on 9/6/15 at 2:40 pm to
Bryant 495 ft off the top of the scoreboard.
Posted by Leonard Threenette
Member since Jul 2014
874 posts
Posted on 9/6/15 at 3:26 pm to
Montero with a Granny!!!

5-1 da Cubs
Posted by BCMCubs
Colorado
Member since Nov 2011
22146 posts
Posted on 9/6/15 at 3:37 pm to
Cubs teeing off today
Posted by Leonard Threenette
Member since Jul 2014
874 posts
Posted on 9/6/15 at 3:38 pm to
Even something called a Herrera with a bomb
Posted by TigerCub
Team Boxtard
Member since May 2006
20185 posts
Posted on 9/6/15 at 3:41 pm to
quote:

We can assume that the game will be in Pittsburgh


I'm not assuming that at all. We're only 3 behind them.
Posted by Leonard Threenette
Member since Jul 2014
874 posts
Posted on 9/6/15 at 3:43 pm to
Bullpen is annoying right now
Posted by TigerCub
Team Boxtard
Member since May 2006
20185 posts
Posted on 9/6/15 at 4:30 pm to
21 games over .500
Posted by cubsfan5150
Member since Nov 2007
15756 posts
Posted on 9/6/15 at 4:37 pm to
Shitty finish, but the magic number is down to 20.
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