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re: CFB Bracket Thread - Looks Like The B1G Is Out?
Posted on 11/5/14 at 11:32 am to More beer please
Posted on 11/5/14 at 11:32 am to More beer please
quote:Anytime you see a list of something that includes some items or orders of items that surprise you, it means the list is an absolute joke. This is 100% true.
Just as many predicted, these polls so far are an absolute joke.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 11:33 am to Cap Crunch
quote:Depends on what that team's record, SOS, etc are, and how they stack up with those of every other school in the nation.
Big 12 champ deserves a spot IMO
Posted on 11/5/14 at 11:39 am to ballscaster
quote:
ballscaster
Getting outside the numbers and metrics for a bit, it is fair to compare SOS for (lets just use an example) Michigan and Florida? Both teams only have the power to schedule 4 of their own games (the OOC ones) and both have done an adequate job filling them with reasonable teams. Mich played Utah and ND, and UF plays FSU every year.
Michigan can't do much more, outside of scheduling 3 top 10 teams ever year, to improve their SOS can they?
Posted on 11/5/14 at 11:41 am to bayoujd
quote:School - FBS Winning % - SOS (old BCS formula, just for perspective)
How do you explain TCU over Baylor?
TCU - .875 - .549
Baylor - .875 - .446
quote:Ole Miss - .778 - .659
Ole Miss over LSU?
LSU - .750 - .635
quote:They aren't tied.
If only those teams, having the same records, had met on the field to break the tie between them
Just because you can't figure it out doesn't mean that it's stupid. The people involved obviously know way more about football than you do.
This post was edited on 11/5/14 at 11:42 am
Posted on 11/5/14 at 11:44 am to ballscaster
quote:
Ole Miss - .778 - .659
LSU - .750 - .635
quote:
If only those teams, having the same records, had met on the field to break the tie between them
They aren't tied.
Just because you can't figure it out doesn't mean that it's stupid. The people involved obviously know way more about football than you do.
You have got to be fricking kidding me
Posted on 11/5/14 at 11:44 am to Buckeye06
quote:Irrelevant and untrue. Conference membership is voluntary, so conference schedule is made ultimately with a school's ultimate consent. Not that that even matters or should matter. You're on the hook for the games you play, and you're not on the hook for the games you don't play. Simple as that.
Both teams only have the power to schedule 4 of their own games
Posted on 11/5/14 at 11:46 am to More beer please
quote:The request was for an explanation as to why or how Ole Miss could be ahead of LSU and why or how TCU could be ahead of Baylor. I provided accurate data that supports the current relationship in the rankings between the two pairs of schools.
You have got to be fricking kidding me
What's the problem?
Posted on 11/5/14 at 11:49 am to ballscaster
quote:
Irrelevant and untrue. Conference membership is voluntary, so conference schedule is made ultimately with a school's ultimate consent. Not that that even matters or should matter. You're on the hook for the games you play, and you're not on the hook for the games you don't play. Simple as that.
I disagree about it being relevant. Michigan and OSU can't just pick up and say they want to go to the SEC. You can say they consent, and yes they ultimately do, but something like 30 top schools leaving and forming a super conference would only happen in a made up world. Therefore, it is true that they only control OOC games, and their schedule suffers every year accordingly
Posted on 11/5/14 at 11:53 am to Buckeye06
quote:
Michigan can't do much more, outside of scheduling 3 top 10 teams ever year, to improve their SOS can they
Yep, a program can only make the effort to have a challenging schedule which is why getting punished for outcomes out of the programs control is beyond ignorant.
For example, Ohio State cant control how shitty VaTech is, but they sure are getting punished for scheduling the game (even though 5 years ago it was a great move) . We could go on and on..
Posted on 11/5/14 at 11:53 am to Buckeye06
quote:Ok. Tough shite.
Michigan and OSU can't just pick up and say they want to go to the SEC. You can say they consent, and yes they ultimately do, but something like 30 top schools leaving and forming a super conference would only happen in a made up world. Therefore, it is true that they only control OOC games, and their schedule suffers every year accordingly
This is really amazing what you've just done. You've actually made the exact argument that for a decade virtually everyone falsely accused Boise State of doing. Whereas not once did anyone from Boise State say they were treated unfairly (they did say scheduling was difficult, but they never ever said that the deck was stacked unfairly against them, and I defy anyone to show me any information suggesting otherwise), an Ohio State fan is actually whining that Big Ten teams are unable to make strong enough schedules because their Big Ten opponents are so bad.
It's not the rest of the world's problem that Michigan can't find enough tough opponents to play.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 11:56 am to rocket31
quote:Considering the size of the division and the relatively small sample size of games, it would be beyond beyond ignorant not to consider strength of schedule when ranking teams.
Yep, a program can only make the effort to have a challenging schedule which is why getting punished for outcomes out of the programs control is beyond ignorant.
The need for SOS isn't ignorant; it is an attempt at mitigating the inconvenience of the small sample size of games.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 11:58 am to rocket31
quote:60 minutes of football played confirms this.
Ohio State cant control how shitty VaTech is
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:00 pm to Buckeye06
quote:
Michigan can't do much more, outside of scheduling 3 top 10 teams ever year, to improve their SOS can they?
I hear you, but just because you call yourself a conference and have well-known schools, you should automatically get a seat at the table despite only 2 teams being competitive?
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:00 pm to ballscaster
quote:
The need for SOS isn't ignorant; it is an attempt at mitigating the inconvenience of the small sample size of games.
Yes, but that doesnt make it statistically relevant.
I can not publish a paper just because I made an "attempt" to have reliable data.
In a peer-reviewed journal, SOS would get thrown out immediately... at least in college football.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:02 pm to ballscaster
quote:
60 minutes of football played confirms this.
youre ignoring point on purpose, not surprised.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:03 pm to ballscaster
quote:
This is really amazing what you've just done. You've actually made the exact argument that for a decade virtually everyone falsely accused Boise State of doing. Whereas not once did anyone from Boise State say they were treated unfairly (they did say scheduling was difficult, but they never ever said that the deck was stacked unfairly against them, and I defy anyone to show me any information suggesting otherwise), an Ohio State fan is actually whining that Big Ten teams are unable to make strong enough schedules because their Big Ten opponents are so bad.
The bad B1G teams aren't as bad as the bad WAC teams, but the end of the point is the same. You can tell me whatever you want about the #'s about SOS etc, but if there is a year where all 5 conference winners are undefeated (possible every year but has never happened), or all conference winners have 1 loss (much more likely), you shouldn't just stick SOS into the equation and pump out a result.
If you take SOS into the equation, there is a valid argument you should also take MOV into account.
If the #4 team beats the #8 team by 6, and the #3 team beats the #22 team by 30, who has a better win? The SOS argument is "well they beat the #8 team," but they didn't win convincingly like the #3 team did over a top 25 team
I'm not trying to insult you or anything, but I think this is a forest vs. trees argument sometimes.
I think you are one of the smart posters on here FWIF
This post was edited on 11/5/14 at 12:05 pm
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:15 pm to rocket31
quote:No it wouldn't.
Yes, but that doesnt make it statistically relevant.
I can not publish a paper just because I made an "attempt" to have reliable data.
In a peer-reviewed journal, SOS would get thrown out immediately... at least in college football.
Two teams are 11-1, and they didn't play each other or have any difference in results vs common opponents. If there's one spot available, how the hell else are you supposed to pick one?
This is hilarious. We now have people arguing that SOS should be completely ignored...and they happen to have ties to the midwest.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:17 pm to rocket31
quote:It couldn't' have been a worse example. Ohio State's problem isn't that Virginia Tech is losing to a lot of their opponents; it's primarily that Virginia Tech beat Ohio State. That game is literally the difference between their being ranked #14 and #3, and it's perfectly fair given the rest of the field's collective performance.
youre ignoring point on purpose, not surprised.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:18 pm to ballscaster
quote:
We now have people arguing that SOS should be completely ignored.
In a 12 variable sample full of regional games? Absolutely.
Not sure of youre education level, but to argue the relevancy of that data is quite obtuse. (no offense.
This post was edited on 11/5/14 at 12:20 pm
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