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Message
re: CFB Betting Thread: W6
Posted on 10/3/19 at 3:17 pm to hubertcumberdale
Posted on 10/3/19 at 3:17 pm to hubertcumberdale
I have my own analytics model that I tweak constantly. Looks at about 20 metrics.
Has Temple winning by 16ish.
It isn't that great at predicting actual scores, but decent for scoring margin and serves its purpose for comparing teams side-by-side in specific categories like YPP for each off vs def, PPG for each off vs. def, 3rd down % for each off v. defense, and Red Zone % for each off v. def.
ECU's offense is not going to do well. Temple's offense won't break records, but it has a much easier path to success.
End of the day, it's just fun to play with the numbers and there is still luck, as everyone knows.
Has Temple winning by 16ish.
It isn't that great at predicting actual scores, but decent for scoring margin and serves its purpose for comparing teams side-by-side in specific categories like YPP for each off vs def, PPG for each off vs. def, 3rd down % for each off v. defense, and Red Zone % for each off v. def.
ECU's offense is not going to do well. Temple's offense won't break records, but it has a much easier path to success.
End of the day, it's just fun to play with the numbers and there is still luck, as everyone knows.
This post was edited on 10/3/19 at 3:18 pm
0
Posted on 10/3/19 at 3:17 pm to hubertcumberdale
quote:
Care to elaborate? Always interested in hearing about analytical models for football. Most systems I have heard of involve weighting different metrics based on the determined ranking of the opposing team.
Years of trial and error. Finally was able to create a system that I can rely on a few years ago and I have ridden with it with minor tweaks since. Had a rough start to this season but I've killed it the last 2 weeks to put me up by a decent amount.
I feel like too many people try to be too complex with their models. My model only uses 4 inputs. Used 3 inputs in 2017 and 2018 and added a 4th in the offseason. The key is you have to do your research and legwork to figure out which inputs truly matter. With that being said the inputs I use are rather complex statistics and aren't simple stats like "yards per game" or "rushing defense"
Posted on 10/3/19 at 3:20 pm to The Funnie Five
quote:
I feel like too many people try to be too complex with their models. My model only uses 4 inputs. Used 3 inputs in 2017 and 2018 and added a 4th in the offseason.
I weight 6 more than others.
-Roster talent (heaviest)
-YPP for both units for both teams vs. each other
-PPP for both units for both teams vs. each other (points per play)
-Overall team QBR (I will adjust this to one QB if the starter has changed)
-Red Zone % for both units for both teams vs. each other
-3rd down % for both units for both teams vs. each other
ETA:
Also, weight each by SOS. So higher the SOS, the more weight your stats have.
This post was edited on 10/3/19 at 3:23 pm
Posted on 10/3/19 at 3:26 pm to The Funnie Five
quote:
My system has it at Temple 25.6, ECU 14.5 so a -11.1 spread, not much value on either side
That's not far from just averaging the ECU PPG and the Temple defensive PPG and vice versa.
Removing DII opponents, that average would lead to a score of 27.15 to 16.15, or 11 point win.
Posted on 10/3/19 at 8:00 pm to TheCaterpillar
ECU came out with a scripted drive and the game is settling down.
Posted on 10/3/19 at 8:03 pm to TheCaterpillar
Terrible call against Temple
Posted on 10/3/19 at 9:45 pm to ForeverLSU02
That 4th qtr FG probably allows ECU to get a backdoor cover.
Posted on 10/3/19 at 10:01 pm to LSUAlum2001
Temple dominated ECU defensively and offensively
Posted on 10/3/19 at 10:07 pm to LSUAlum2001
If they call this game bc someone turns the lights out and the bets get canceled I’m going to go insane
Posted on 10/3/19 at 10:07 pm to hubertcumberdale
Playing like retards on offense this series.
Passing the ball 5/6 times this current drive with a 17 point lead and snapping the ball with 15 secs left on the play clock with the game clock running.
Passing the ball 5/6 times this current drive with a 17 point lead and snapping the ball with 15 secs left on the play clock with the game clock running.
Posted on 10/3/19 at 10:13 pm to hubertcumberdale
quote:
If they call this game bc someone turns the lights out and the bets get canceled I’m going to go insane
After 55 minutes it’s gambling official so you’re good.
Posted on 10/3/19 at 10:22 pm to JG77056
fricking Temple...
This post was edited on 10/3/19 at 10:23 pm
Posted on 10/3/19 at 10:23 pm to TheCaterpillar
Garbage TD! NOO!
Posted on 10/3/19 at 10:23 pm to LSUAlum2001
Holy frick I jynxed myself fuuuuuuuck
Posted on 10/3/19 at 10:24 pm to lsuhunt555
Like I said..
Played like retards with those plays snapping the ball with a game clock running and 15+ secs on the play clock.
Saw that coming when Temple kicked that last FG which would let their D relax up 3 scores and give up a late garbage TD.
Played like retards with those plays snapping the ball with a game clock running and 15+ secs on the play clock.
Saw that coming when Temple kicked that last FG which would let their D relax up 3 scores and give up a late garbage TD.
Posted on 10/3/19 at 10:25 pm to LSUAlum2001
..and now Temple decides to play defense again.
Posted on 10/3/19 at 10:27 pm to LSUAlum2001
F Temple F that a hole that jumped offside F those 4 defensive backs who let up that jump ball prayer an
Posted on 10/3/19 at 10:28 pm to RandySavage
Holy shite.
It doesn’t count lolol
It doesn’t count lolol
Posted on 10/3/19 at 10:28 pm to burdman
Hahahahaha
Does temple cover?!?!?!
Does temple cover?!?!?!
This post was edited on 10/3/19 at 10:29 pm
Posted on 10/3/19 at 10:29 pm to jac1280
Refs had money on ECU
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