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re: CFB Betting Thread: W6
Posted on 10/3/19 at 10:26 am to LSUAlum2001
Posted on 10/3/19 at 10:26 am to LSUAlum2001
quote:
Updated Temple -12.5
Had a chance to get -11 at -113 last night, but thought it would continue to drop to -10 or so, but money has been dumped onto Temple today and it’s now -12.5
I also really like Temple fwiw. They have a really solid defense this year and ECU is miserable on offense. Temple is also 6-0 ATS in last 6 vs ECU and 11-4 ATS in last 15 games overall.
This post was edited on 10/3/19 at 10:29 am
2
Posted on 10/3/19 at 10:30 am to hubertcumberdale
I jumped on Temple -12 last night.
So far:
Oregon -18
Temple -12
UF/Auburn Under 23 in first half
So far:
Oregon -18
Temple -12
UF/Auburn Under 23 in first half
Posted on 10/3/19 at 10:32 am to TheCaterpillar
why you liking temple dude I'm looking into that one
Posted on 10/3/19 at 10:42 am to Mr Perfect
Same reasons as stated above.
Temple has a very good defense and ECU has an abysmal offense. ECU will not be able to move the ball much, even at home. Not one of ECU's games have hit the Over yet this year either.
Temple is also far better in the red zone and on 3rd down as well.
Temple has a very good defense and ECU has an abysmal offense. ECU will not be able to move the ball much, even at home. Not one of ECU's games have hit the Over yet this year either.
Temple is also far better in the red zone and on 3rd down as well.
Posted on 10/3/19 at 10:59 am to hubertcumberdale
quote:
Temple is also 6-0 ATS
Games played 3-6 years ago and for Temple 2 coaches ago matter why exactly when it comes to this year's games?
Posted on 10/3/19 at 11:02 am to airlinehwypanhandler
quote:
Games played 3-6 years ago
ga southern arse blasts south bama every year.
both offenses are run oriented and fairly terrible. i may tease ga southern down and the under up
Posted on 10/3/19 at 11:04 am to airlinehwypanhandler
temple qb is super overrated
Completion % 49.09% (#119)
Int Thrown % 4.55% (#112)
id take ECU and the points at home with a rowdy crowd (do they still get rowdy crowds)?
expect a decent showing from the pirates tonight
Completion % 49.09% (#119)
Int Thrown % 4.55% (#112)
id take ECU and the points at home with a rowdy crowd (do they still get rowdy crowds)?
quote:
“I think you will see our student body rally around this,” he said. “We need them. We want The Boneyard (student section) packed on Thursday night. It’s time for all of us to come together and support our football program.”
“There are a lot of smiles on campus and around the facility,” said sophomore wide receiver Blake Proehl, who took a pass 72 yards for a touchdown last week. “We’re excited for Thursday. It brings a lot of energy knowing everybody is watching -- prime time, ESPN on Thursday night. It something you dream about playing football.”
expect a decent showing from the pirates tonight
This post was edited on 10/3/19 at 11:11 am
Posted on 10/3/19 at 11:16 am to airlinehwypanhandler
quote:
Games played 3-6 years ago and for Temple 2 coaches ago matter why exactly when it comes to this year's games?
Bc its a trend, my friend. A trend worth noting. Something is allowing them to beat the shite out of ECU the last 6 years, and it appears the same will happen this year.
Posted on 10/3/19 at 11:22 am to Winston Cup
quote:
id take ECU and the points at home with a rowdy crowd (do they still get rowdy crowds)?
No one has really touted Temple's offense this year. Their defense (#19 overall) has been the selling point. ECU has the #94 offense in NCAA in terms of ypg. ECU has the #111 scoring offense at 21.4 pts/gm
I will take Temple to cover with a QB who has a low completion % over ECU scoring on Temple's D.
Posted on 10/3/19 at 11:23 am to hubertcumberdale
quote:
Bc its a trend, my friend. A trend worth noting. Something is allowing them to beat the shite out of ECU the last 6 years, and it appears the same will happen this year.
But Temple and ECU both have changed coaches multiple times in that time frame. And even then its a sample size of 6.
Posted on 10/3/19 at 11:32 am to airlinehwypanhandler
quote:
But Temple and ECU both have changed coaches multiple times in that time frame. And even then its a sample size of 6.
Has the talent changed? Recruiting area changed? I get what you are saying but 6-0 ATS is something worth considering.
Also, before 2014, the last matchup bw Temple and ECU was 1995. So really 5-0 ATS in recent history. I was looking at trends on Oddsshark and did not see the detail.
Also since 2014, ECU has never beat Temple, regardless of coach.
ECU has never score more than 14 points on Temple since 2014, furthermore, they have only scored 50 points vs Temple in 5 years. The total score since 2014 is 50-164.
Posted on 10/3/19 at 2:26 pm to airlinehwypanhandler
Well Temple is 3-1 ATS this year and East Carolina is 2-3.
Also:
-Temple Def YPP is 8th nationally and ECU's Off YPP is 119th nationally.
-Temple is 23rd in scoring defense and ECU is 124th in scoring offense.
East Carolina will have a very hard time scoring at all in this one. I see a 24-6 type score.
Also:
-Temple Def YPP is 8th nationally and ECU's Off YPP is 119th nationally.
-Temple is 23rd in scoring defense and ECU is 124th in scoring offense.
East Carolina will have a very hard time scoring at all in this one. I see a 24-6 type score.
Posted on 10/3/19 at 2:30 pm to LSUAlum2001
East Carolina +420 tonight good luck
Posted on 10/3/19 at 2:31 pm to hubertcumberdale
quote:
hubertcumberdale
Betting arbitrary, small sample size, outdated trends is going to get your buried
For a trend to matter
1. It has to have a big enough sample size
2. It has to have a non arbitrary start and end point
3. It has to have data that is relevant and not outdated
Posted on 10/3/19 at 2:43 pm to Winston Cup
quote:
temple qb is super overrated
Completion % 49.09% (#119)
Int Thrown % 4.55% (#112)
ECU's is nearly as bad and Temple has a MUCH better defense than ECU. They've also played a harder schedule up to this point.
Holton Ahers
Completion % 54.1
4 TDs/5 INTs
Posted on 10/3/19 at 2:50 pm to TheCaterpillar
first game in 10 years steve the pirate wont lead the team on the field. win it for Steve!
Posted on 10/3/19 at 2:54 pm to TheCaterpillar
My system has it at Temple 25.6, ECU 14.5 so a -11.1 spread, not much value on either side
But it gives ECU a 22.2% win chance. ML at +420 translates to 19.2% so about a 3% edge on ECU ML at 420. Worth a shot
But it gives ECU a 22.2% win chance. ML at +420 translates to 19.2% so about a 3% edge on ECU ML at 420. Worth a shot
Posted on 10/3/19 at 2:56 pm to The Funnie Five
quote:
Betting arbitrary, small sample size, outdated trends is going to get your buried
I am not betting on a 5-0 ATS streak, its just makes me feel better about taking Temple considering the last 5 times they played them they beat them by at least 10 points.
Christ, kill me for mentioning that Temple has owned ECU in recent history.
Temple vs ECU History
Posted on 10/3/19 at 2:58 pm to The Funnie Five
quote:
My system
Care to elaborate? Always interested in hearing about analytical models for football. Most systems I have heard of involve weighting different metrics based on the determined ranking of the opposing team.
This post was edited on 10/3/19 at 2:59 pm
Posted on 10/3/19 at 3:14 pm to hubertcumberdale
quote:
Christ, kill me for mentioning that Temple has owned ECU in recent history.
Temple vs ECU History
Just trying to help. I think this blog post sums up the dangers of using trends perfectly: LINK
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