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Analysis of Non-Conference P5 Games

Posted on 11/27/23 at 10:54 am
Posted by rolltide32
Fort Payne, AL
Member since Nov 2013
6516 posts
Posted on 11/27/23 at 10:54 am
B12 #1 Texas Win @ SEC #2 Alabama 34-24
SEC #1 Georgia Win @ ACC #4 Georgia Tech 31-23
SEC #3 Missouri Win Vs B12 #4 Kansas State 30-27
SEC #4 Ole Miss Win Vs ACC #4 Georgia Tech 48-23
ACC #1 Florida State Win N SEC #5 LSU 45-24
SEC #6 Tennessee Win N ACC #12 Virginia 49-13
ACC #9 Miami Win Vs SEC #7 Texas A&M 48-33
SEC #8 Kentucky Win @ ACC #2 Louisville 38-31
SEC #9 Auburn Win @ P12 #7 California 14-10
ACC #1 Florida State Win @ SEC #10 Florida 24-15
P12 #5 Utah Win Vs SEC #10 Florida 24-11
ACC #6 Clemson Win @ SEC #11 South Carolina 16-7
ACC #7 North Carolina Win N SEC #11 South Carolina 31-17
SEC #12 Mississippi State Win Vs P12 #3 Arizona 31-24
B12 #12 BYU Win @ SEC #13 Arkansas 38-31
ACC #14 Wake Forest Win Vs SEC #14 Vanderbilt 36-20
SEC 7-9 4-6 Vs ACC 1-2 Vs B12 2-1 Vs P12


ACC #1 Florida State Win N SEC #5 LSU 45-24
ACC #1 Florida State Win @ SEC #10 Florida 24-15
SEC #8 Kentucky Win @ ACC #2 Louisville 38-31
ACC #2 Louisville Win N B10 #14 Indiana 21-14
ACC #2 Louisville Win Vs Notre Dame 33-20
Notre Dame Win @ ACC #3 NC State 45-24
SEC #1 Georgia Win @ ACC #4 Georgia Tech 31-23
SEC #4 Ole Miss Win Vs ACC #4 Georgia Tech 48-23
B10 #12 Purdue Win @ ACC #5 Virginia Tech 24-17
B10 #8 Rutgers Win Vs ACC #5 Virginia Tech 35-16
ACC #6 Clemson Win @ SEC #11 South Carolina 16-7
ACC #6 Clemson Win Vs Notre Dame 31-23
ACC #7 North Carolina Win N SEC #11 South Carolina 31-17
ACC #7 North Carolina Win Vs B10 #10 Minnesota 31-13
ACC #8 Duke Win Vs B10 #5 Northwestern 38-14
Notre Dame Win @ ACC #8 Duke 21-14
ACC #9 Miami Win Vs SEC #7 Texas A&M 48-33
ACC #11 Syracuse Win @ B10 #12 Purdue 35-20
B10 #7 Maryland Win Vs ACC #12 Virginia 42-14
SEC #6 Tennessee Win N ACC #12 Virginia 49-13
B12 #14 Cincinnati Win At ACC #13 Pittsburgh 27-21
B12 #5 West Virginia Win Vs ACC #13 Pittsburgh 17-6
Notre Dame Win Vs ACC #13 Pittsburgh 58-7
ACC #14 Wake Forest Win Vs SEC #14 Vanderbilt 36-20
Notre Dame Win Vs ACC #14 Wake Forest 45-7
ACC 12-13 6-4 Vs SEC 2-4 Vs ND 4-3 Vs B10 0-2 Vs B12

B12 #1 Texas Win @ SEC #2 Alabama 34-24
B12 #2 Oklahoma State Win @ P12 #11 Arizona State 27-15
SEC #3 Missouri Win Vs B12 #4 Kansas State 30-27
B12 #5 West Virginia Win Vs ACC #13 Pittsburgh 17-6
B10 #3 Penn State Win Vs B12 #5 West Virginia 38-15
B10 #4 Iowa Win @ B12 #6 Iowa State 20-13
P12 #2 Oregon Win @ B12 #7 Texas Tech 38-30
B12 #8 Kansas Win Vs B10 #9 Illinois 34-23
P12 #12 Colorado Wins @ B12 #10 TCU 45-42
P12 #5 Utah Win @ B12 #11 Baylor 20-13
B12 #12 BYU Win @ SEC #13 Arkansas 38-31
B12 #14 Cincinnati Win At ACC #13 Pittsburgh 27-21
B12 6-6 2-1 Vs SEC 2-0 Vs ACC 1-2 Vs B10 1-3 Vs P12

P12 #1 Washington Win @ B10 #13 Michigan State 41-7
P12 #2 Oregon Win @ B12 #7 Texas Tech 38-30
SEC #12 Mississippi State Win Vs P12 #3 Arizona 31-24
P12 #5 Utah Win Vs SEC #10 Florida 24-11
P12 #5 Utah Win @ B12 #11 Baylor 20-13
Notre Dame Win Vs P12 #6 USC 48-20
SEC #9 Auburn Win @ P12 #7 California 14-10
P12 #9 Washington State Win Vs B10 #6 Wisconsin 31-22
Notre Dame Win @ P12 #10 Stanford 56-23
B12 #2 Oklahoma State Win @ P12 #11 Arizona State 27-15
P12 #12 Colorado Win @ B12 #10 TCU 45-42
P12 #12 Colorado Win Vs B10 #11 Nebraska 36-14
P12 7-5 1-2 Vs SEC 3-1 Vs B12 0-2 Vs ND 3-0 Vs B10

B10 #2 Ohio State Win @ Notre Dame 17-14
B10 #3 Penn State Win Vs B12 #5 West Virginia 38-15
B10 #4 Iowa Win @ B12 #6 Iowa State 20-13
ACC #8 Duke Win Vs B10 #5 Northwestern 38-14
P12 #9 Washington State Win Vs B10 #6 Wisconsin 31-22
B10 #7 Maryland Win Vs ACC #12 Virginia 42-14
B10 #8 Rutgers Win Vs ACC #5 Virginia Tech 35-16
B12 #8 Kansas Win Vs B10 #9 Illinois 34-23
ACC #7 North Carolina Win Vs B10 #10 Minnesota 31-13
P12 #12 Colorado Win Vs B10 #11 Nebraska 36-14
B10 #12 Purdue Win @ ACC #5 Virginia Tech 24-17
ACC #11 Syracuse Win @ B10 #12 Purdue 35-20
P12 #1 Washington Win @ B10 #13 Michigan State 41-7
ACC #2 Louisville Win N B10 #14 Indiana 21-14
B10 6-8 3-4 Vs ACC 0-3 Vs P12 1-0 Vs ND 2-1 Vs B12

B10 #2 Ohio State Win @ Notre Dame 17-14
Notre Dame Win Vs P12 #6 USC 48-20
Notre Dame Win @ P12 #10 Stanford 56-23
Notre Dame Win Vs ACC #14 Wake Forest 45-7
Notre Dame Win Vs ACC #13 Pittsburgh 58-7
Notre Dame Win @ ACC #8 Duke 21-14
Notre Dame Win @ ACC #3 NC State 45-24
ACC #2 Louisville Win Vs Notre Dame 33-20
ACC #6 Clemson Win Vs Notre Dame 31-23
ND 6-3 0-1 Vs B10 2-0 Vs P12 4-2 Vs ACC

Posted by rolltide32
Fort Payne, AL
Member since Nov 2013
6516 posts
Posted on 11/27/23 at 10:55 am to
Only Notre Dame and the Pac 12 Had a winning record against other P5 competition

Texas A&M was the only SEC team that lost to a team that finished worse in their conference standings than they did.

The ACC had 4 such losses. SEC #8 Kentucky over ACC #2 Louisville, B10 #8 Rutgers over ACC #5 Virginia Tech, B10 #12 Purdue over ACC #5 Virginia Tech. Big 12 #14 Cincinnati over ACC #13 Pittsburgh.

The Big 12 had one such loss P12 #12 Colorado over B12 #10 TCU.

The B10 had three such losses ACC #8 Duke over B10 #5 Northwestern , P12 #9 Washington State over B10 #6 Wisconsin, and P12 #12 Colorado over B10 #11 Nebraska.

The Pac 12 had 2 such losses SEC #12 Mississippi State over P12 #3 Arizona and SEC #9 Auburn over P12 #7 California.

Wins against teams equal to or higher in their conferences standings:
SEC 4
ACC 3
P12 3
B10 2
B12 1 (Make it 2 if Alabama beats UGA Saturday)


The Pac 12 played 2 teams that finished in the top half of their conference plus 2 games against Notre Dame. They went 2-2. The highlight is Oregon beating B12 #7 Texas Tech 38-30. A Team Texas beat 57-7, K State beat 17, BYU beat by 13, and lost to G5 Wyoming.

The SEC played 10 games against teams finishing in the top half of their conference. The SEC was 5-5 in these games. SEC #10 Florida and #11 South Carolina accounted for 4 of the 5 losses. Notable wins include SEC #3 Missouri over B12 #4 K State 30-27, SEC #12 Mississippi State over P12 #3 Arizona 31-24 , SEC #8 Kentucky over ACC #2 Louisville 38-31 ,

The B12 Played 6 teams that finished in the top half of their conference winning one of them. Obviously this is Texas 34 Alabama 24.

The B10 Played 6 teams finishing in the top half of their conference. They went 4-2. Two wins were against Virginia Tech. Penn State beat B12 #5 WVU and Iowa beat B12 #6 ISU. The most notable result is not included in this data as the best B10 win was Ohio State over Notre Dame 17-14.

The ACC played 5 teams finishing in the top half of their conference. They went 3-2. They also played a bunch of games against Notre Dame. Top half of the ACC went 2-1 vs Notre Dame with Clemson and Louisville winning and NC State getting curb stomped. ACC highlights include Miami's win over Texas A&M and FSU's win over LSU.

Given all of this here is how I would rank the conferences:

1. SEC
2. Big 12
3. ACC
4. Big 10
5. Pac 12

SEC won some of the games they should lose and didn't lose many of the games they should win.

Big 12 struggled in marquee games but has the biggest OOC win with Texas over Alabama and didn't have any bad losses.

ACC lost some games they should win (Louisville - Kentucky is the biggest example but Virginia Tech crapped the bed against bad Big Ten teams twice as well) but they also had a number of quality wins.

Big 10 was carried by 3 of the 4 teams they have with a pulse. Michigan didn't want to help out by actually playing a power 5 OOC game. OSU over ND, PSU over WVU, and Iowa over ISU are all solid wins. They also had a couple of bad teams punk VT who somehow finished 5th in the ACC ahead of teams like Clemson, UNC, and Duke.

P12 played absolutely no one of note. The closest thing to a quality Pac 12 team playing a quality OOC game was #6 USC getting absolutely destroyed by Notre Dame. Oregon went down to the wire with B12 #7. P12 #3 Arizona lost to SEC #12 Mississippi State. The Pac 12's biggest win is probably 5-7 Washington State winning a home game against 7-5 Wisconsin.
Posted by sledgehammer
SWLA
Member since Oct 2020
3370 posts
Posted on 11/27/23 at 10:58 am to
That Miss st win over Arizona is impressive.
Posted by Dire Wolf
bawcomville
Member since Sep 2008
36642 posts
Posted on 11/27/23 at 10:59 am to
quote:

That Miss st win over Arizona is impressive.



one of the more confusing outcomes of the season
Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
83469 posts
Posted on 11/27/23 at 11:01 am to
Yep

Alabama should be in with a win over Georgia
Posted by Hot Carl
Prayers up for 3
Member since Dec 2005
59100 posts
Posted on 11/27/23 at 11:10 am to
quote:

one of the more confusing outcomes of the season


Not really. It just shows how much teams can change—for the better or worse—throughout the season. Teams are not the same in early September as they are in late November.

All that said, OP did a lot of work to try to justify the opposite, but 12-1 Big 12 Champion is still getting in over 12-1 SEC Champ Alabama who they beat head to head on the road. Assuming both teams win Saturday, which is a big assumption.

I assume that’s what this exercise was actually for.
Posted by Tiger Prawn
Member since Dec 2016
21901 posts
Posted on 11/27/23 at 11:10 am to
quote:

Alabama should be in with a win over Georgia
Not unless Texas, FSU, or Michigan gets upset
Posted by TDawg1313
WA
Member since Jul 2009
12310 posts
Posted on 11/27/23 at 11:12 am to
quote:

one of the more confusing outcomes of the season

This was before Fifita took over at QB and transformed their team.
Posted by ChiSaint
Silicon Valley, CA
Member since Feb 2008
366 posts
Posted on 11/27/23 at 11:22 am to
I know it’s not a P5 matchup but Auburn losing 31-10 to New Mexico State should really be taken into account.

All those white knighting for Bama over Texas should think about the fact that Bama was a miracle play away from losing to a team that lost by 3 touchdowns to the #2 team in Conference USA.
Posted by chalmetteowl
Chalmette
Member since Jan 2008
47618 posts
Posted on 11/27/23 at 11:50 am to
quote:

Auburn losing 31-10 to New Mexico State should really be taken into account.


How much were they really preparing for that game?
Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
83469 posts
Posted on 11/27/23 at 11:53 am to
I know record and resume are neat but you’re right, transitive property for 1 game is the way we should be ranking these teams.
Posted by ChiSaint
Silicon Valley, CA
Member since Feb 2008
366 posts
Posted on 11/27/23 at 11:59 am to
But isn’t all of your conference records above just transitive properties? If we are considering Bama / Texas, given equal records and conference titles, isn’t the only thing that should matter is the head to head? Who cares about what happened between the #4 Big 12 team vs the #6 SEC team (or equivalent)?
Posted by Cdawg
TigerFred's Living Room
Member since Sep 2003
59522 posts
Posted on 11/27/23 at 12:37 pm to
quote:

That Miss st win over Arizona is impressive.


one of the more confusing outcomes of the season


It was a weird game. We should have drummed them and then the 2nd half happened. But that's also when I realized, our coaching staff is hapless. Zona turned the ball over 5 times(4 picks) and they still took us to OT.
Posted by Weekend Warrior79
Member since Aug 2014
16397 posts
Posted on 11/27/23 at 1:21 pm to
quote:

transitive property for 1 game is the way we should be ranking these teams.

It is a message board, and a lot of times those transitive property conversations can be very entertaining.
Posted by rolltide32
Fort Payne, AL
Member since Nov 2013
6516 posts
Posted on 11/27/23 at 2:39 pm to
quote:

All that said, OP did a lot of work to try to justify the opposite, but 12-1 Big 12 Champion is still getting in over 12-1 SEC Champ Alabama who they beat head to head on the road. Assuming both teams win Saturday, which is a big assumption.


What the frick does any of this have to do with that?

Texas should be in over Alabama if Alabama wins.

Both should be in over Oregon.
Posted by Rawanduncut
Member since Sep 2019
482 posts
Posted on 11/27/23 at 5:37 pm to
The Acc is 6-4 vs the Sec this season.
Posted by SeeeeK
some where
Member since Sep 2012
28059 posts
Posted on 11/27/23 at 5:43 pm to
next years Missouri schedule is a dumpster fire. For some reason, the Old AD scheduled a game @Umass. Missouri has tried to upgrade, but Umass will not give the game up, even for cash.

Posted by rolltide32
Fort Payne, AL
Member since Nov 2013
6516 posts
Posted on 11/28/23 at 6:43 am to
quote:

The Acc is 6-4 vs the Sec this season.


ACC#1 Beat SEC #5 and #10
ACC#6 & #7 beat SEC #11
ACC #14 beat SEC #14

They should win all of those matchups. The only impressive win they have is ACC #9 at home against SEC #7.

SEC #1 & SEC #4 beat ACC #4.
SEC #6 beat ACC #12
Nothing to see here either

The kicker in all of this is that SEC #8 beat ACC #2 in their house
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