re: 2013 Breeders Cup gambling thread

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Saturday Breeders’Cup picks:

Race 4) Juvenile Fillies Picks: 7, 1, 4, 10.

7) Untapable: overcame a rank start to take the G2 Pocahontas, and with a winning time that can take this; Asmussen/Napravnik, 33 percent.
1) Artemis Agrotera: repelled a late challenge in winning the Frizette; trainer Hushion is strong in this spot.
4) Secret Compass: solid ride by Rosie got this Discreet Cat daughter up to win the Grade 1 Chandelier; Baffert loses nothing with jock switch to Johnny V.
10) She’s a Tiger: was game in head loss to above filly; Stevens waits a bit longer before making move today.

Race 5) Filly & Mare Turf Picks: 6, 3, 1, 5.

6) Marketing Mix: she had her chances in the Rodeo, but came up a head short, which is the exact distance Stevens will have her closer to the lead.
3) Tiz Flirtatious: got a great ride by Leparoux getting up in time to take the Rodeo Dr., which was her fourth win on the course.
1) Dank: ran away from the Beverly D field and with another display of that late kick and she could do the same to this group.
5) Lady of Shamrock: has placed in four of her last six, all graded, and is another who’s won four here.

Race 6) Filly & Mare Sprint Picks: 11, 8, 5, 2.

11) Groupie Doll: returning champ will rebound in her return to dirt, and a distance she’s won over a million dollars. You got to beat her.
8) Dance to Bristol: filly showed signs of the grueling schedule she’s run this year; now rested, she’s the main threat to the fave.
5) Teddy’s Promise: with five wins here and money finishes in her last six, mare is a proven player in exotics, and with a price.
2) Book Review: Baffert starter is a five-time winner at this route, and has spent the early fall prepping for this with hot works.

Race 7) Turf Sprint Picks: 12, 14, 3, 6.

12) Mizdirection: draw a line thru her last, yielding turf at a mile. Queen of the Hill, and she knows it.
14) Unbridled’s Note: last year’s runner-up missed by a half-length in the Eddie D, however colt loves this course and will be close at the end.
3) Chips All In: battled all the way down the hill to take the Eddie D, and it’ll take that and a bit more to upset the top-two.
6) Boat Trip: rallied from well back only to miss by a nose in the D; today’s jock switch to Bejarano not only keeps him there, but is a legit win threat.

Race 8) Juvenile Picks: 13, 6, 14, 3.

13) Havana: set some pretty quick fractions in the Champagne and it was catching up to him late. Velasquez will get him to rate a bit, and he’s led at every call in his first two.
6) Tap It Rich: starting issues in his debut nearly cost him, but he gathered himself under the skillful ride of Smith and won going away. Smith is 37 percent here.
14) Strong Mandate: it’s hard to explain his effort in the Champagne, a start in which he never factored. He is however a Grade 1 winner, Hopeful, so don’t dismiss.
3) Mexikoma: Birdstone colt produced one of the field’s highest speed figures in his maiden score last out at Delaware, and ownership, Team Valor, knows quality.

Race 9) Turf Picks: 10, 8, 7, 4.

10) Big Blue Kitten: rallied to win the Sword Dancer, but came up a nose short last out in the Turf Classic; both Grade 1’s at today’s route.
8) Point of Entry: five of his last seven wins were against Grade 1 Company, four at this distance; missed by a half-length last year.
7) The Fugue: lone filly in the field is a multiple Group 1 winner in England and last out she took the Irish Championship Stakes. Dangerous!
4) Little Mike: reigning champ struggled following his win last year, however saddling up with HOF rider Mike Smith in the Turf Classic he finished a game nose in front. He knows this bunch like his groom; don’t discount a champion.

Race 10) Sprint Picks: 9, 7, 8, 2.

9) Secret Circle: in his first sprint try since his juvenile season, Eddington colt drilled an OC field with a time that’ll win this; with a pair of bullet preps, he could be sitting on another big effort.
7) Private Zone: back-to-back scores, the last in the Vosburgh. Never off the board at this distance.
8) Fast Bullet: in his first with Lukas, he faltered big time as the fave in the Forego. The seconds for the Coach have been a zero play.
2) The Lumber Guy: he’s back with trainer Hushion, who was his corner man for his Vosburgh win last year, and near miss in this a year ago.

Race 11) Turf Mile Picks: 8, 1, 10, 5.

8) Wise Dan: forget last; when connections were only thinking about keeping the win streak intact, they should’ve scratched him on the surface switch. He’s the best, beat him if you can.
1) No Jet Lag: his City of Hope score here came with a winning time that he’ll need to duplicate to threaten Dan, and with Smith staying on, possibly.
10) Za Approval: he’s proven board finisher against these, and in exotics, that’s all I ask for.
5) Olympic Glory: you’ve got to consider Ascot’s QE II winner.

Race 12) Classic Picks: 9, 8, 11, 12.
9) Game On Dude: his dismal showing in this last year has been reviewed ad nauseum; since, he’s run off six straight. 6-year-old earns Horse of the Year honors with this score.
6) Mucho Macho Man: a true handicap horse that’s always there, and will be again today.
8) Palice Malice: Curlin colt and Belmont Stakes winner is filling out his skin now and hopefully he’ll be around as long as a couple of these, because he’s only going to get better.

12) Flat Out: appropriately named, as that’s how he runs each and every time.

Sentimental Fave: 2) Paynter: a Hollywood story that would rival Seabiscuit.

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Hit the first race. I love those downhill sprints.

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