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XOM, still a buy?
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:09 pm
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:09 pm
I bought some on the dip (32.71) and was thinking of buying some more while it is currently 44.60. Is it a good bet to continue to climb back towards all time highs in the 70's?
5
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:28 pm to tduecen
I studied it long and hard and really wanted to take a large position in my 401k when it was in the thirties.
In the end I decided against. Sentiment towards oil and gas is just awful and it'll only get worse from here.
And I'm in the industry...
Eta: I'm assuming you mean long term. If we're talking strictly rebound, then yeah that wouldn't be a bad call
In the end I decided against. Sentiment towards oil and gas is just awful and it'll only get worse from here.
And I'm in the industry...
Eta: I'm assuming you mean long term. If we're talking strictly rebound, then yeah that wouldn't be a bad call
This post was edited on 5/22/20 at 5:53 pm
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:34 pm to castorinho
Yeah, I mean I caught it in the 30's obviously and bought many shares and it has been a nice own so far. I know Exxon is the leader in the oil industry and was curious if people thought they would continue to grow and the stock would continue to improve. I've been debating buying more here lately.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:43 pm to tduecen
quote:
was curious if people thought they would continue to grow and the stock would continue to improve.
Yes on both accounts.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:58 pm to tduecen
quote:
all time highs in the 70's
You may want to relook at a chart that goes back further than one year...
Posted on 5/22/20 at 5:12 pm to tduecen
quote:
I know Exxon is the leader in the oil industry and was curious if people thought they would continue to grow and the stock would continue to improve.
Exxon took a pretty big risk by not cutting their dividend in Q1. They are paying the dividend on borrowed money, and now if they do have to cut the dividend their stock could tank while others are on the rise.
Further, while you would think XOM’s huge downstream presence would provide some stability, their downstream margins were slipping long before COVID.
If you’re looking to buy an integrated oil company for the long term, I would personally look at RDS before XOM. RDS already cut their dividend, so it’s highly unlikely that they would need to cut it again AND they have the long term benefit of not borrowing money to pay shareholders in Q1.
If XOM doesn’t cut their dividend, they will still have to deal with the debt which will impact long term growth. If they do cut it, that 7% yield you see now goes up in smoke and the stock price tanks.
ETA: Personally, I don’t know if the statement “Exxon is the leader in the oil industry” is true anymore.
This post was edited on 5/22/20 at 5:21 pm
Posted on 5/22/20 at 5:21 pm to lostinbr
Gasoline is not going away any time soon, and gas and liquid fuel is only part of a barrel of oil. Lots of plastics, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and such in the rest of a barrel of oil.
Oil is going to come back in due time.
BTW, NYC traffic has increased quite a lot of late. Things are getting back to normal even in this People's Republic.
Oil is going to come back in due time.
BTW, NYC traffic has increased quite a lot of late. Things are getting back to normal even in this People's Republic.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 5:21 pm to tduecen
quote:
Exxon is the leader in the oil industry
I don’t think that at all. They have been slipping big time the last several years.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 5:26 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
Gasoline is not going away any time soon, and gas and liquid fuel is only part of a barrel of oil. Lots of plastics, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and such in the rest of a barrel of oil.
Oil is going to come back in due time.
All of this is true, but you have to wonder - given the high gasoline demand and low crude prices over the past few years, why was Exxon’s downstream margin slipping?
The question isn’t whether oil will come back. It’s whether XOM is the horse you want to pick.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 6:14 pm to tduecen
I cut out at $44 and took the profits. You’re looking at yo-yo effect next 12-18 months Just to see $60. That’s longer than I want to keep a large portion of my portfolio locked in on O/G at the moment.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 7:18 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
gas and liquid fuel is only part of a barrel of oil
A major part. Gas and fuel represent around 75% of a barrel of oil.
Posted on 5/24/20 at 10:45 am to castorinho
quote:
In the end I decided against. Sentiment towards oil and gas is just awful and it'll only get worse from here.
And I'm in the industry...
Don't disagree, but sentiment doesn't control actual demand. And there will continue to be demand for decades.
Posted on 5/24/20 at 11:02 am to LSUTOM07
quote:
A major part. Gas and fuel represent around 75% of a barrel of oil.
Which is why then they are refining Oil for their plastic electric cars it just makes sense to keep using gas and diesel.
IEA predicts a demand peak in 2030. Who knows if this is true or not. Hard to say, but even if it peaked, the question to ask is how are reserves looking at that time.
Lots of things to consider on the consumption side of things. I cant see China, India, Africa, etc going electric and using "less" Fuel, but I can see the US and Europe doing so.
Posted on 5/24/20 at 11:04 am to MandevilleLSUTiger
quote:we're talkinh about investment here. Just because there'll be demand does not mean it'll be a great investment.
Don't disagree, but sentiment doesn't control actual demand. And there will continue to be demand for decades.
Look at XOM's returns, including dividends, for the past ten years. It's pretty bad comparatively.
Posted on 5/24/20 at 1:38 pm to tduecen
bought at 45 like 2 months ago and feels like been stuck in 40's for a while now. will continue to hold .
Posted on 5/24/20 at 2:00 pm to FLObserver
See I bought on the dip so my average buy is 32 so I'm up with how many shares I have. Hell they are holding me afloat because CIM is well below what I bought at 
Posted on 5/24/20 at 2:11 pm to tduecen
I’m in at $90/share. At this point I’ll keep it to see if/when it has a rebound before selling it off.
Posted on 5/24/20 at 4:13 pm to saderade
quote:
I’m in at $90/share. At this point I’ll keep it to see if/when it has a rebound before selling it off.
Do you hold this in a taxable or retirement account? People grossly underestimate the value of loss carry forwards in a current year and over future periods in taxable accounts. What is lost in this thread is XOM relied on asset sales for dividend payments in 2019, this is not just a 2020 challenge. RDS said they would not cut until they cut.
Posted on 5/24/20 at 4:17 pm to saderade
quote:
I’m in at $90/share. At this point I’ll keep it to see if/when it has a rebound before selling it off.
Tell me you have like 25 shares and not 3500. That’s just awful if so.
Posted on 5/24/20 at 8:29 pm to tduecen
If you want something long term, buy chevron or rds but both probably aren’t at great prices right now unless you want to hold for a while
I’m also a big fan of noble energy (nbl)
I’m also a big fan of noble energy (nbl)
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