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re: Why is the stock market moving up?
Posted on 10/16/12 at 12:58 pm to LSURussian
Posted on 10/16/12 at 12:58 pm to LSURussian
One more thing Russian. I would like to see the dollar VS the Dow over the last few years. I suppose this falls into the flight to quality argument, but as Zach said, poor returns on money market accounts, and the dollar getting smoked.....maybe the risk in the market is more tollerable than other investments right now? The right now part is what's sort of scary.
But I really dont know crap. I run my own money and do just ok.
But I really dont know crap. I run my own money and do just ok.
1
Posted on 10/16/12 at 3:47 pm to Jed Zeppelin
Posted on 10/16/12 at 4:03 pm to LSURussian
Many good ideas in this thread.
All of them could be correct and then again, none of them may be correct. I sure can't figure it out.
The only other time I've seen the market behave like this in my investing career the chairman of the Federal Reserve gave a speech and referred to the market as having "irrational exuberance."
To the poster who said perhaps the market is reacting to the upcoming presidential election, I've thought about that myself. It seems the market has elevated since the first presidential debate and the subsequent polls showing a revived Romney campaign. If that's it, we will know three weeks from today.
Thanks to everyone for your responses.
All of them could be correct and then again, none of them may be correct. I sure can't figure it out.
The only other time I've seen the market behave like this in my investing career the chairman of the Federal Reserve gave a speech and referred to the market as having "irrational exuberance."
To the poster who said perhaps the market is reacting to the upcoming presidential election, I've thought about that myself. It seems the market has elevated since the first presidential debate and the subsequent polls showing a revived Romney campaign. If that's it, we will know three weeks from today.
Thanks to everyone for your responses.
Posted on 10/16/12 at 6:31 pm to LSURussian
quote:
I sure can't figure it out.
I can't either. I think it goes up until Benny pulls away the feeding trough.
Posted on 10/16/12 at 10:34 pm to LSU0358
The Dow ended at 13535 on the evening of the first debate (10/3). It ended today at 13550.
Up a grand total of 15, or .001. Yeah, the first debate made a hugh difference.
Up a grand total of 15, or .001. Yeah, the first debate made a hugh difference.
Posted on 10/17/12 at 9:05 am to LSURussian
I don't think it has been mentioned, but I believe a large part is related to anemic bond yields and people needing/wanting somewhere to park their money.
FTR, I rebalanced recently at about DOW 13,500 from heavily weighted in equities to primary bonds and cash equivalents.
I think the market is currently overvalued.
FTR, I rebalanced recently at about DOW 13,500 from heavily weighted in equities to primary bonds and cash equivalents.
I think the market is currently overvalued.
Posted on 10/17/12 at 10:49 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
The markets are dependent on the action of the World’s Central Banks. Thailand eased today by a quarter of a percentage. South Korea and Australia have recently cut. It is just my opinion, but I cannot fathom that the markets would be performing this way IF there was not some type of fiscal deal being floated Washington/New York. As far as stocks, there is an absence of sellers right now. We fall to around the 50 day moving average and bounce back. The shorts have been decimated in this market.
There is, however, a disconnect from the market’s rise and what people are actually observing anecdotal in their own lives. Excluding the oil and gas states, business in most other areas is very anemic. My husband’s clients are telling him that they are very worried about the recent slowdown because is comes at a time when the US is not operating at a robust level of activity.
The liquidity is floating around the financial sector and not making it to Main Street. It is what it is.
There is, however, a disconnect from the market’s rise and what people are actually observing anecdotal in their own lives. Excluding the oil and gas states, business in most other areas is very anemic. My husband’s clients are telling him that they are very worried about the recent slowdown because is comes at a time when the US is not operating at a robust level of activity.
The liquidity is floating around the financial sector and not making it to Main Street. It is what it is.
Posted on 10/17/12 at 11:31 am to LSURussian
quote:
Why is the stock market moving up?
Serious question: What am I missing?
If a guy like you doesn't know the answer to this...I am royally fricked.
Posted on 10/17/12 at 11:40 am to LSURussian
quote:
Serious question: What am I missing?
$$$
Posted on 10/17/12 at 12:32 pm to Putty
The whole situation is confusing as heck.
Google Fed Balance Sheet Contracting year over year 2012.
LINK
Looks like The FED is just now starting to work on QE3
SOMA
The Fundamentals don't mean crap anymore.
Q3 S&P Earnings Expectations Est YoY. From Big Picture Blog.
Market within striking distance of all time highs.
Google Fed Balance Sheet Contracting year over year 2012.
quote:
Monitoring the Fed's balance sheet indicates that reserve bank credit rose $11.8 bln last week. The Fed's balance sheet has been shrinking in recent months. The twist operation has not added to the Fed's balance sheet and the recently announced asset purchase program has not kicked into high gear. In fact, mortgage holdings have been falling since July and are down sharply from levels seen in late 2010. The graphic displays the level of reserve bank credit and the year over year change in reserve bank credit. Notice that reserve bank credit has been contracting on a year over year basis. Even though the level of the Fed's balance sheet is historically bloated, the trend and growth is soggy in recent months. At this stage, the Fed does not appear to be supplying a large incremental increase in liquidity to the economy or equity market. This seems to run contrary to conventional wisdom which has played up QE as a bullish factor for the stock market. It may also explain why stocks have not found great upside follow through post the Fed's QE announcement. We'll have to watch to see if last period's $11.8 bln increase turns into a trend.
LINK
Looks like The FED is just now starting to work on QE3
SOMA
The Fundamentals don't mean crap anymore.
Q3 S&P Earnings Expectations Est YoY. From Big Picture Blog.
Market within striking distance of all time highs.
Posted on 10/17/12 at 1:19 pm to LSURussian
I think we are on an obvious bubble. With the corp profit margins being pretty high in past months that explained the good earnings forcasts in the past but that is not true anymore maybe we are about to hit a plateau before the fall??
Sorta feels like the moment the coyote runs off the cliff.
Sorta feels like the moment the coyote runs off the cliff.
Posted on 10/17/12 at 1:52 pm to LSURussian
Your guess is as good as mine, but QE was part of the reason for the run up, as Flask said flight to quality but I feel that helped the market circa last spring. I honestly think too its some short covering/hedge mutual funds etc trying to catch up on sub par returns. Rest of the world is coasting, Europe seems to be making progress.
My question to flask is what sign have you seen of the retail investor coming back? Any fund flows out of bonds to equities? I haven't been quite a tune to the market or MB lately. School has been kickin my arse.
I've been short the dollar and had S&P puts since July in ,an allocation. Still waiting it out
My question to flask is what sign have you seen of the retail investor coming back? Any fund flows out of bonds to equities? I haven't been quite a tune to the market or MB lately. School has been kickin my arse.
I've been short the dollar and had S&P puts since July in ,an allocation. Still waiting it out
Posted on 10/17/12 at 3:21 pm to greenhead11
quote:
Any fund flows out of bonds to equities?
I heard it on CNBC the other morning that mutual funds were getting slammed with cash.
Don't remember the number, but it was memorable enough that it caught my attention while I wasn't even watching the TV.
Posted on 10/17/12 at 3:56 pm to TheHiddenFlask
I agree with previous sentiment expressed in the thread that it is a bubble, but here's an interesting take:
LINK /
LINK /
Posted on 10/18/12 at 11:50 pm to acgeaux129
Jim Cramer opins that the market has already factored in the election, and the fiscal cliff.
Techs have run their course. (His program was a day or so before IBM fell, and then Google today).
Techs have run their course. (His program was a day or so before IBM fell, and then Google today).
Posted on 10/23/12 at 5:31 pm to LSURussian
Apparently fundamentals DO matter. See today's market drop.
Posted on 10/23/12 at 6:24 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Why is the stock market moving up?
it's not today.
Posted on 10/23/12 at 8:29 pm to LSURussian
Yeah, I thought about this tread today.
Posted on 10/23/12 at 10:31 pm to LSURussian
It is alleged that the Fed and banks will buy stocks if a crisis is near.
LINK
Bob Prechter puts it best:
"When markets go up, the Fed seems to be in control; when they go down, it seems out of control. But the control aspect is an illusion."
It is possible that the banks were in so much trouble in 2008 that they could not join the Fed to prop up bad stocks.
Try this Link:
LINK
The massive stock-market rally in the past nine months is mostly due to secret government buying of stock-index futures, a respected stock-market analyst said Tuesday.
Charles Biderman, chief executive of TrimTabs Investment Research, is the latest and most credible person to charge that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury (in league with top Wall Street firms) is rigging the stock market on a daily basis.
In a special report released Tuesday, Biderman said the $6 trillion increase in U.S. stock-market capitalization since March can't be explained by the usual sources of funds flowing into the market -- such as mutual funds, direct retail investment, pension funds, hedge funds or foreign purchases. Read more about Biderman's theory.
The only logical explanation for the extent of the rally, he suggested, is secret buying by a government committee known colloquially as the Plunge Protection Team. It's like the dark matter that astrophysicists conjecture must be there, even if we can't detect it.
The PPT was established by President Ronald Reagan in 1988 after the 1987 stock crash to coordinate the government's response to market meltdowns. It consists of the Fed chairman, the Treasury secretary, the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
LINK
Something does not make sense. Poor earnings and poor revenue normally leads to a poor market. Going up in this environment makes absolutely no sense. Maybe people are jumping in because they think Romney will win and they might think that will be good for the market. It might be good for coal and oil.
LINK
Bob Prechter puts it best:
"When markets go up, the Fed seems to be in control; when they go down, it seems out of control. But the control aspect is an illusion."
It is possible that the banks were in so much trouble in 2008 that they could not join the Fed to prop up bad stocks.
Try this Link:
LINK
The massive stock-market rally in the past nine months is mostly due to secret government buying of stock-index futures, a respected stock-market analyst said Tuesday.
Charles Biderman, chief executive of TrimTabs Investment Research, is the latest and most credible person to charge that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury (in league with top Wall Street firms) is rigging the stock market on a daily basis.
In a special report released Tuesday, Biderman said the $6 trillion increase in U.S. stock-market capitalization since March can't be explained by the usual sources of funds flowing into the market -- such as mutual funds, direct retail investment, pension funds, hedge funds or foreign purchases. Read more about Biderman's theory.
The only logical explanation for the extent of the rally, he suggested, is secret buying by a government committee known colloquially as the Plunge Protection Team. It's like the dark matter that astrophysicists conjecture must be there, even if we can't detect it.
The PPT was established by President Ronald Reagan in 1988 after the 1987 stock crash to coordinate the government's response to market meltdowns. It consists of the Fed chairman, the Treasury secretary, the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
LINK
Something does not make sense. Poor earnings and poor revenue normally leads to a poor market. Going up in this environment makes absolutely no sense. Maybe people are jumping in because they think Romney will win and they might think that will be good for the market. It might be good for coal and oil.
Posted on 10/24/12 at 12:00 am to djmicrobe
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