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re: Why do the talking heads keep mentioning the 150% run up in the last 4 years
Posted on 8/9/13 at 2:14 pm to Doc Fenton
Posted on 8/9/13 at 2:14 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
2013-Jun, 214.2
2012-Jun, 188.8
It looks a little better, apples to apples, but that's still DOUBLE the jump from 2011 to 2012, and it's still ~13% up.
1
Posted on 8/9/13 at 2:15 pm to Ace Midnight
Watch it get revised down to 205 next month...
Posted on 8/9/13 at 2:15 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
He produced much lower inflation rates than Volcker, and he did try to tamper down expectations and prick asset bubbles more than once. He was just constrained by the situation he found himself in.
I don't disagree with any of this.
Posted on 8/9/13 at 2:16 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
Watch it get revised down to 205 next month...
That's always the rub - by the time the numbers are "real" (validated), we're in another cycle. Great for historians and accountants, but not to help anybody be proactive, right?
Posted on 8/9/13 at 2:18 pm to Ace Midnight
yup.
bob shiller will have his apr-may-jun numbers out on tuesday, august 27, i think.
bob shiller will have his apr-may-jun numbers out on tuesday, august 27, i think.
Posted on 8/9/13 at 4:21 pm to ThaBigFella
quote:
but I could show you Exxon,Chevron as 2 giants who are more than fairly valued based on earnings.
That's great and all but you do realize that Oil companies don't trade off of PE they trade off of EV/EBITDA.
Posted on 8/9/13 at 4:29 pm to ThaBigFella
What other positive news do they have to talk about?
Posted on 8/21/13 at 9:33 am to Doc Fenton
The Great One has spoken again this morning...
It turns out that the preliminary numbers for June reported last month were actually legit.
Additionally, high prices were maintained into July, even as sales volume seems to have spiked.
I sure hope all those cash investors figure out what they're gonna do with all those purchased homes. It looks awfully bubbly out there.
NAR Existing Home Data
(Date = Price, Annualized Volume in Millions, Estimated Inventory)
2008-AVG = $198,100, 4.11, 10.4
2009-AVG = $172,500, 4.34, 8.8
2010-AVG = $172,900, 4.19, 9.4
2011-AVG = $166,100, 4.26, 8.3
2012-AVG = $176,800, 4.66, 5.9
June 2013 = $214,200, 5.08, 5.2 (preliminary numbers)
June 2013 = $214,000, 5.06, 5.1 (revised)
July 2013 = $213,500, 5.39, 5.1 (preliminary numbers)
It turns out that the preliminary numbers for June reported last month were actually legit.
Additionally, high prices were maintained into July, even as sales volume seems to have spiked.
I sure hope all those cash investors figure out what they're gonna do with all those purchased homes. It looks awfully bubbly out there.
NAR Existing Home Data
(Date = Price, Annualized Volume in Millions, Estimated Inventory)
2008-AVG = $198,100, 4.11, 10.4
2009-AVG = $172,500, 4.34, 8.8
2010-AVG = $172,900, 4.19, 9.4
2011-AVG = $166,100, 4.26, 8.3
2012-AVG = $176,800, 4.66, 5.9
June 2013 = $214,200, 5.08, 5.2 (preliminary numbers)
June 2013 = $214,000, 5.06, 5.1 (revised)
July 2013 = $213,500, 5.39, 5.1 (preliminary numbers)
Posted on 8/21/13 at 9:38 am to Ace Midnight
quote:Based on what metric? You may be correct. I'm just trying to learn something here.
the market is noticeably overbought
Posted on 8/21/13 at 10:11 am to Doc Fenton
quote:Shut your mouth
I sure hope all those cash investors figure out what they're gonna do with all those purchased homes. It looks awfully bubbly out there.
Posted on 8/21/13 at 11:32 am to LSURussian
quote:
Based on what metric? You may be correct. I'm just trying to learn something here.
I'm not nearly as business saavy as you, but I've noticed that some of the companies these talking heads are mentioning in a panic have recently reported some pretty respectable earnings. I'm going of the assumption than I'm probably missing something though.
This post was edited on 8/21/13 at 11:33 am
Posted on 8/21/13 at 12:26 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Based on what metric?
I was basing it off the large number of stocks at a 52-week high. Some of that is based on earnings, but some of that is unbridled optimism. Unfortunately, even with good earnings, once that unbridled optimism wanes - well, we typically see a 10 to 12 percent dip in the market, overall, primarily on the backs of those stocks at the 52-week high mark.
Just as a rising tide lifts all boats, when the tide goes out, everybody is likewise, high and dry.
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