When will we see an interest rate increase?

If this site's search function worked better, I'm fairly certain I could find threads nearly identical to this every few months for the last several years. The only honest answer is that we have absolutely no idea.

quote:

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There was talk of one at beginning of next year, realistically when can we expect one?

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Bank said mortgage rate is at 4% today for a 30 yr. conv. Up from 3.5% last week.

December. Futures indicate a 92% chance. Then again, the futures market missed Trump by a mile.

But seriously, the economy is about to heat up. P/E Ratios are pretty high right now, unemployment is looking good, inflation has seen a recent uptick, delinquencies are low across the board (except in the sub-prime auto market), 10-year yields are up 30 bps... Then there is an expectation of an infrastructure stimulus on the heels of a repatriation holiday from Trump... US economy is about to cook off.

Glad I locked in on my new home at 3.375 for 30 years 2 weeks ago!

That WAS my rate. We haven't found anything we really like.

Congrats tho.

1) So i used the words "heat up" and "cook off" very deliberately. If you look at the businesses that have piles of cash offshore, most (except apple) really aren't well positioned to spend it on domestic growth. They will likely keep some offshore for future capex, bring most back and pay it to shareholders through a special dividend or repurchase. I think your call for a new withholding structure is pretty accurate. If a corporate tax guy is worth his salt, you shouldn't pay much more than 15% now anyway via deductions and writeoffs (these loopholes will close with MAGA's plan), so don't expect bottom lines to fatten up for corps. Changes to Title 26 of the US Code (the section that governs tax law) must pass both chambers by a majority. Not too hard since MAGA has em both. Other tax cuts must pass similar congressional muster, but will result in immediate nominal growth once implemented with real growth showing upward momentum within a couple quarters.

2) I think well thought out and needed infrastructure spending will boost real growth. Look at Real GDP growth per capita prior to FDR's new deal:
1927 -0.39%
1928 -0.10%
1929 5.02%
1930 -9.94%
1931 -8.40%
1932 -13.75%
1933 -2.66%

TVA, CCC RFC, AAA and NIRA get rolling with the New Deal

1934 7.05%
1935 6.90%
1936 13.48%
1937 3.64%
1938 -4.72%
1939 7.10%
1940 6.84%

I hear the stagflation argument (which is why I used real GDP above), and given my thesis on the temperature of the economy, this could be a very real concern, especially with an infrastructure stimulus. But, If you look at Public Construction Spending it has seen a federal expenditure decrease whereas total construction spending has been trending upward. I think this means companies that generally derive profits via public construction projects have been hurting the last 5 years (e.g. CAT). With $1 trillion in infrastructure spending over 10 years (MAGA plan) that is roughly a 35% increase in annual public construction. That's huge. The growth won't be sustainable, but it should help real GDP grow for a while and help some baws get an F-250 with a yeti and some truck nuts.

Then again, the ninja Martin Wolf and his hens vehemently disagree with my thesis. But I think the doves are too busy drooling over the jobs data and the hawks seem to have had their nuts clipped. They guessed wrong on Brexit and Trump, and now rates are way too low. I think inflation is about rocket, and I've aggressively hedged accordingly. Look for substantial market volatility when the Oct. CPI numbers come out Thursday.

Edit: In re: to OP Market correction question:
So the market is overvalued, but I don't think there will be a market correction because 1) there is just too much dry powder with nowhere to put it at the moment, and 2) I think the Trump Train should boost growth to justify current P/E ratios. David Rosenberg, one of the ringleaders regarding the 2016 market correction and recession talk, predicted markets would tank if Trump was elected. How'd that workout for ole David? Where is his 2016 recession (later downgraded to a mere correction)? Now, if none of Trump's plans generate real growth, then the market is wayyyy overvalued and with inflation cooking as a result of govt. spending, people will jump from equities into bonds and commodities causing a pretty big dip.