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Started By
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What do people think about the market since Powell’s comments yesterday?
Posted on 3/7/24 at 5:48 am
Posted on 3/7/24 at 5:48 am
Says rate cuts will come this year but won’t say when. Still not convinced we’re beating inflation.
Posted on 3/7/24 at 6:55 am to dualed
We are definitely beating inflation. Look at commodities markets and it’s clear that the cost of many products are coming down in price
The supply chain is where things get sticky and even that is clearing up.
The supply chain is where things get sticky and even that is clearing up.
Posted on 3/7/24 at 7:00 am to SlidellCajun
I think it is going to be tough to get companies to start lowering their prices again after all the record profits they were making raising them. It will all come down to the customer ultimately saying no to these higher prices before you see prices going down again.
Posted on 3/7/24 at 7:14 am to dualed
Anti business rhetoric coming out of the Administration will not assist lowering of prices or inflation. More regulation and browbeating is not the answer.
Posted on 3/7/24 at 7:15 am to dualed
Its all about the jobs #s
That mierda BLS last month put a pause on things
Tomorrows numbers are big. ADP and BLS so far off its crazy
Initial Jobless claims are up. Bond market reacting. 10yr is dropping
That mierda BLS last month put a pause on things
Tomorrows numbers are big. ADP and BLS so far off its crazy
Initial Jobless claims are up. Bond market reacting. 10yr is dropping
This post was edited on 3/7/24 at 7:44 am
Posted on 3/7/24 at 7:31 am to SlidellCajun
quote:
We are definitely beating inflation.
It’s slowed, and for that reason I’m happy.
quote:
Look at commodities markets and it’s clear that the cost of many products are coming down in price
Ehh define many?
Posted on 3/7/24 at 7:50 am to dualed
[quote]Still not convinced we’re beating inflation.[/quote
Inflation was 8% in 2022. It’s around 2.8% today. It sounds like you want deflation, if this is not considered beating inflation to you. Sustained deflation would be worse than inflation. Prices are never going down by 8%. People hoping for that are living in a fantasy land.
Inflation was 8% in 2022. It’s around 2.8% today. It sounds like you want deflation, if this is not considered beating inflation to you. Sustained deflation would be worse than inflation. Prices are never going down by 8%. People hoping for that are living in a fantasy land.
This post was edited on 3/7/24 at 7:54 am
Posted on 3/7/24 at 10:49 am to SlidellCajun
quote:
We are definitely beating inflation
Slowing it down, yes. But the damage is done. Lower and middle classes effed again. But it's great for my investments!
Beating implies it's no longer a concern. Either A) wages catch up causing more inflation or B) earnings come down when the bottom 60% of earners are tapped out on debt.
Not sure how these options are "beating" anything. I would love to hear a more optimistic assessment though.
Posted on 3/7/24 at 11:16 am to dualed
quote:
Says rate cuts will come this year but won’t say when.
He's trying to be optimistic but he understands the reality we're in.
There's still a glut of money in the economy, so inflation is remaining "sticky" above 3%. Consumers are still building up debt on high-interest credit cards and it's been going on so long that the average credit rating is starting to take a hit and delinquencies are seeing a steady rise while personal savings is slowly dwindling.
Unemployment has remained low and both job creation and GDP have remained strong.
None of those alone are favorables when looking at cutting rates, but taken together are a statement that rates shouldn't be cut any time soon.
CPI was driven down over the last 6 months in large part due to the drop in the price of oil. That's slowly ticking back up as is the price at the pump and the price of gasoline is likely to remain higher due to various factors (blends, no SPR offset, etc).
I don't expect inflation to dip below 3% for February nor for March. If that's the case then there's no way we get a cut before June. That means the economy would need to be in serious trouble for us to get 3 cuts in 6 months. The longer we go with inflation staying above 3%, the more likely it becomes we might see another hike before we see a cut.
quote:
Still not convinced we’re beating inflation.
You only "beat" inflation (at least, the way I see it) by having deflation and that means the economy is in the shitter (too much supply, not enough demand and that leads to more layoffs). Other than that, you are just assimilating to inflation.
This post was edited on 3/7/24 at 11:35 am
Posted on 3/7/24 at 11:17 am to dualed
Rates historically have been lowered coincided with a downturn
Great Recession
Dot Com Bubble
COVID Crash
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history/
Great Recession
Dot Com Bubble
COVID Crash
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history/
Posted on 3/7/24 at 12:53 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:Umm what?
We are definitely beating inflation.
Posted on 3/7/24 at 1:31 pm to dualed
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