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re: What are your thoughts on the Chinese stock market plunge?
Posted on 7/7/15 at 12:35 pm to Blakely Bimbo
Posted on 7/7/15 at 12:35 pm to Blakely Bimbo
What the hell did I just read.
0
Posted on 7/7/15 at 1:01 pm to rehtaeh
All the fear in this thread is making me hit the buy button.
Posted on 7/7/15 at 3:06 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
quote:
Speculative positions in today's market will only move price on the margin.
I'm not entirely sure about this, but haven't looked at oil's COT lately either. Speculators most certainly have moved the oil market, and very recently. By physical traders I assume you mean hedgers. I'd suggest they don't much care about fundamentals either. They're mostly locking in a profit. I think they're concerned about their firms fundamentals, but I think they could give a crap about the EIA report, other than for a big picture view.
The difficulty is separating out the hedgers between producers and large financial institutions. I guess you could say JP Morgan hedges their positions, but it is largely a paper position in their case outside of precious metals. BAA, which is a penny stock gold miner I own on the other hand when they buy or sell a contract, is more the traditional definition of hedging.
You can see who owns which contracts. This stuff is available on the CBOE website for one. You need to put together the delivery report with the COT to back in to it.
Posted on 8/1/15 at 7:47 pm to Iowa Golfer
I really need to be better at responding to this board. I moved to a new desk about a year and change ago, it's been very difficult for me to keep up here.
Not necessarily in the current paradigm, which you reference in your second clause. I'm simply referring to anybody that can trade contracts close to delivery and be able to store if needed. Pure speculators will operate farther out of the commodities curve. It's very difficult now-a-days to determine what is speculation and what is pure market delivery via the CBOE website.
I really wanted to come back on the price since I said I doubted that oil would touch the previous lows, which it absolutely has.
I didn't think the dollar had much more juice to go after its earlier rally, but it did and has potentially more to go, which has really wiped the commodities complex. The reason being, I believe, was something so obvious and right in front of me on my Bloomberg every single fricking day that I don't know how I missed it. Why is the dollar continuing to strengthen?
US 10-year - 2.2%
German 10-year - 0.6%
Expectations for that spread? Widening.
Right now WIRP has rate expectations for a Sept hike at 46%, while several people are really thinking October may be the better hiking point. Regardless of whether or not the pace of hiking is extremely slow or not, Spanish and Italian bonds are trading through the US. Insane. I know that may be extreme simplification but until anything comes up to hinder this dollar strength I don't know how the commodities complex will break out to the upside. More dead cat bounces if anything. Hopefully I'm wrong as I was previously.
quote:
By physical traders I assume you mean hedgers.
Not necessarily in the current paradigm, which you reference in your second clause. I'm simply referring to anybody that can trade contracts close to delivery and be able to store if needed. Pure speculators will operate farther out of the commodities curve. It's very difficult now-a-days to determine what is speculation and what is pure market delivery via the CBOE website.
I really wanted to come back on the price since I said I doubted that oil would touch the previous lows, which it absolutely has.
I didn't think the dollar had much more juice to go after its earlier rally, but it did and has potentially more to go, which has really wiped the commodities complex. The reason being, I believe, was something so obvious and right in front of me on my Bloomberg every single fricking day that I don't know how I missed it. Why is the dollar continuing to strengthen?
US 10-year - 2.2%
German 10-year - 0.6%
Expectations for that spread? Widening.
Right now WIRP has rate expectations for a Sept hike at 46%, while several people are really thinking October may be the better hiking point. Regardless of whether or not the pace of hiking is extremely slow or not, Spanish and Italian bonds are trading through the US. Insane. I know that may be extreme simplification but until anything comes up to hinder this dollar strength I don't know how the commodities complex will break out to the upside. More dead cat bounces if anything. Hopefully I'm wrong as I was previously.
Posted on 8/1/15 at 8:02 pm to rehtaeh
quote:
Why would China cook their books? They seem to have a lot of exports and a huge population, so why would they have empty cities?
Everybody tries to shade things to look better than they really are, as much as they think they can get away with it. It's just part of being human, we're just devious bastards.
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